SNP versus Scottish Labour: Yousaf could still come out on top

Of course, that’s not all it is. We should be wary about assuming that either the SNP’s actions or Labour’s response over a Gaza ceasefire have been governed by domestic political considerations alone, significant though they may be. Labour’s previous position had become insupportable principally because of the sheer horror of the war and the dreadful prospect of a ground invasion of Rafah. The Israeli Defence Forces insist they are trying to minimise civilian casualties in Gaza, but that claim has been very hard to reconcile with much of what has been seen and heard of the war.

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Let us take a moment to remember the appalling circumstances surrounding the death of six-year-old Hind Rajab on January 29. Hind was fleeing from Gaza City with her family in a car when according to recordings of Hind’s 15-year-old cousin Layan desperately talking to the Palestinian Red Crescent, their car came under fire from an Israeli tank. Hind’s family, including Layan, were apparently killed in the attack and Hind was trapped in the car with their bodies. “Will you come and get me? I’m so scared,” she said on the line to rescuers.

The little girl and the rescue team sent to find her were later found dead, along with five members of Hind’s family, their bodies showing signs of gunfire and shelling.

It is beyond words.

For many international observers, the Israeli government’s insistence that this horrendous war will make the Israeli people safer, has seemed less and less credible with every day that has passed. More likely, it is deepening enmities and sowing the seeds of ongoing conflict.

This is first and foremost an issue of conscience, for the SNP and all those who back an immediate ceasefire. Labour’s change of stance was overdue.

But we cannot ignore the domestic political dimension here in the UK. The SNP’s tabling of a motion was entirely justified, but was also intended to put Labour in a difficult position (though the Speaker’s decision to allow Labour’s amendment made things rather less troublesome for Mr Starmer than they might have been).

The SNP have been at their most popular when they have acted like an opposition party in relation to the UK Government. That hasn’t worked so well lately, amid the party’s own various travails.

Stephen Flynn (Image: free)

But it’s clear that the old ways are being revived with a possible incoming Labour government in mind. The SNP is determined to do what it must to make Labour’s life as hard as possible.

Also this week, Humza Yousaf said Mr Starmer will be “doubling down on austerity” if he wins the election. “Westminster is so broken, so skewed to the right, that even Labour know they can’t win unless they promise to be just as right wing as the Conservatives,” Mr Yousaf said on Monday, adding that Labour and the Tories were “two parties committed to austerity, to Brexit, to brutal welfare cuts”. He even opposed the extension of Labour’s windfall tax on oil giants, saying it threatened jobs in the north-east of Scotland.

You can see where he’s going with all this. He’s attempting to portray the SNP, rather than Labour, as the natural home of the working class. We’ve been here before.

Partly this is a bid to stave off SNP losses at the general election. The bigger story in Scotland, though, is what happens two years later at the next Holyrood election. Could we see the SNP straddling four decades in office? Could this tired administration really end up governing Scotland yet again?

Yes – which is to say, it’s a distinct possibility. Not a certainty by any means, but very much a possibility.

I have argued before that losing the next Holyrood election is just what the SNP needs in order to revivify the fight for independence, which is better done from opposition.

But it might not lose.

The link between supporting independence and backing the SNP has weakened, but not broken. SNP support has fallen but from such a high level that even now, roughly a third of voters back the party. Polls of Holyrood voting intention – worth considering given that support for Labour may be at its high watermark right now – show support for Labour and the SNP at roughly the same level.

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If this were still the case going into the 2026 Scottish parliament election, Labour might be in a better position to form a government than the SNP, since Labour could seek support from both the Lib Dems and Greens to get Anas Sarwar elected First Minister (the Greens having made clear they might support Labour), while the SNP could not rely on Lib Dem support.

Even so, it’s possible neither of the two bigger parties could muster the numbers to form a majority government, even with Green or Lib Dem support, creating the surreal possibility of the Scottish Conservatives as kingmakers, perhaps on an arms-length basis. Perhaps this would be the SNP’s route back to power, relying as Alex Salmond once did on Tory support to get budgets passed. Labour and the SNP will tussle over every last seat.

If Mr Starmer becomes Prime Minister, Mr Flynn and Mr Yousaf will pose relentlessly as Labour’s conscience, highlighting its timidity and parsimony (they’ll call it austerity, amid amnesia about their own public service cuts) claiming all the while to be the true flag-bearers of the left. Sometimes, as with this week’s motion on a ceasefire, these conflicts will signify something much bigger than election machinations; other times they will not.

What’s clear is that the SNP has a renewed sense of purpose, that looks ever more clearly defined set against a cautious Labour party. Only the rash would write them off.