Yousaf tacks right in fear of Forbes – is Sturgeonism dead?

It seems that Sturgeonism is rapidly becoming a thing of the past in the government of Humza Yousaf. Her progressive ideology is increasingly being whittled away.

The reason isn’t hard to discern. The First Minister is scared of the challenge that Kate Forbes presents in the event of the SNP losing to Labour at the UK General Election.

If Labour overtake the SNP, then Yousaf’s tenure will be in jeopardy, and Forbes the likely successor.

So Yousaf seems to believe that the best tactic is to pinch some of Forbes’ clothes to deck his administration in the colours of his rival.

There are signs and omens everywhere. The sense of a page turning on the Sturgeon era has been coalescing since the New Year.

On Monday, Yousaf gave a speech on independence, that was heavy on industrial policy. Not something voters heard much from Sturgeon.

However, of more significance was his claim that a fund would be established to assist investment in a future independent Scotland “financed through oil revenues” over a decade.

This, then, is no longer an SNP which grandstands about lofty net zero ambitions. This is a return to the SNP of Alex Salmond where ‘Scotland’s oil’ is front and centre. “Oil and gas will still play an important role in Scotland’s future,” Yousaf said.

The speech was very pro-business. Sturgeon was often accused of being quite the opposite. 

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Being pro-business was the reason Yousaf gave for his hitherto secret meeting with the socially conservative Scottish tycoon Brian Souter. It was only after the news outlet Politico secured documents under Freedom of Information legislation that voters discovered Yousaf met Souter for dinner at a five-star hotel last summer.

Evidently, meeting business leaders is a positive move by any First Minister. However, in the eyes of many Yes voters Souter is no ordinary businessman.

He’s seen as utterly toxic for bankrolling the infamous ‘Keep the Clause’ campaign which barred schools from ‘promoting’ homosexuality. The campaign, seen as deeply homophobic by the LGBT community, was ultimately unsuccessful.

Souter also opposed same-sex marriage. He was once the party’s largest donor but turned the money tap off after Sturgeon replaced Salmond. Now, under Yousaf, there seems to be a refreshed love-in.

Neither of these two events is pleasing the SNP’s dwindling wing of progressive supporters, who first got spooked by the high level of backing shown for socially conservative Kate Forbes during the bitter leadership contest.

In the eyes of many Yes voters, Humza Yousaf's meeting with businessman Brian Souter was seen as a betrayal of progressive values (Image: Newsquest)
Forbes is avowedly pro-business and supports the continued extraction of North Sea oil and gas.

So you can see why to some it looks like the Sturgeon years are being put to the sword. The ‘new’ SNP under Yousaf, to many on the liberal side of the party, seems very like the SNP of old.

There’s much talk already of Forbes ‘faction-building’. Lorna Slater, the Green Minister, says Forbes is “working on internal politics”. Forbes would most likely put an end to the SNP-Green deal if she did ever assume leadership.

Trying to hijack much of the Forbes’ agenda to undermine any attempt by her to take power should the party turn on Yousaf after a hammering at the general election is a risky strategy.

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By keeping the pro-business, socially conservative right-wing of his party happy, Yousaf could end up alienating the progressive liberal voters who put the party in office. 

It looks bad for Yousaf either way. Stick to Sturgeonism and foment a rebellion. Tack to the right to fend off that rebellion, and lose voters.

The harsh truth is that this is going to be a rotten year for Yousaf no matter what he does.