This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.
Let’s hope Santa is kind to Humza Yousaf. He’s going to need something to bring a little cheer this holiday season.
After a hellish 2023, the SNP - and the wider Yes movement - have only a bleak Hogmanay to look forward to, and an even worse 2024 as the year progresses.
Prominent voices in the Yes movement are trying to put on a brave face, but beneath the rictus grin of feigned hope, you can sense the ache of despair.
The SNP - and the wider Yes movement, in particular - can be stubbornly, absurdly, impervious to reality. However, it seems finally the penny has dropped that matters have never been worse since 2007, and the future is rather dark.
This year has been the SNP’s Annus Horribilis. Since Nicola Sturgeon cut and run, the party has been in agony - beset by scandals, police investigations, back-stabbing, and defections.
Evidently, this internal chaos has bled into policy. The party has become incapable of good governance, with legislation collapsing, and bringing trust down with it. Perhaps the biggest defeat came at the hands of the UK government in the court battle over trans rights.
Much of the unionist propaganda pumped out isn’t just embarrassingly over-the-top, but completely unnecessary. People see for themselves what’s happening. That’s reflected in polls.
Nobody needs hysterical exaggeration from Labour or Tories when it’s perfectly clear the SNP has run out of steam. The ferry fiasco stands as a shaming symbol of government failure: an administration incapable of building a boat in a maritime nation.
The SNP now gets bogged down in petty scandals which devour credibility. The fact that Michael Matheson remains in office is a sign of Yousaf’s weakness not strength.
Worse, though, the party alienated large numbers of progressive supporters. Kate Forbes and her social conservatism and Ash Regan’s weird populism during the leadership contest repelled many voters who had no idea such opinions lurked within Sturgeon’s party.
Read More: Neil Mackay: SNP must be bold this budget or be damned for failure
Ironically, independence hasn’t been affected by the SNP’s rapid decline. Yes voters now easily differentiate between their constitutional ambitions and the SNP. The party is no longer umbilically linked to its core policy in the minds of many. This in itself is a catastrophe for the SNP.
So what does the future hold? How will 2024 treat the party? Badly is the answer. What we’re witnessing is political entropy: all governments run their course. Time is nearly up for the SNP.
We’ll almost certainly see a UK general election in 2024. It’ll be a Labour landslide. When that happens, the SNP will have to completely reimagine itself. The problem? It no longer has any imagination. It can’t even develop a meaningful independence strategy.
With wicked Tories removed, playing the blame game becomes much harder. If Labour does improve Britain’s constitutional settlement, then it won’t just be SNP support which drains, but support for independence.
SNP members believe everyone who backs independence shares their fundamentalism. Wrong. If Yes voters see a better deal for Scotland, significant numbers will cool on independence.
Read More: Neil Mackay: Banned from being a MP over ‘Satanic’ books? Go to the devil
Clearly, the SNP’s base still screeches: ‘But who would vote for Red Tories?!’
They’ve a King Canute complex, and will likely still be screeching that when Labour moves into Bute House.
Read Neil every Friday in the Unspun newsletter.
For that’s the worse possible scenario the future holds. A Labour general election win will change the national mood music.
Scottish elections loom in 2026. Tory-lite or not, if Keir Starmer navigates his honeymoon period competently, momentum will be with Anas Sarwar for the Holyrood vote.
A chapter in Scottish politics which nearly ended the union, may more likely end the SNP’s hold on power for the foreseeable future.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel