As we approach the end of another year, the road ahead still appears to be littered with hurdles from a business and economic perspective.

It is an outlook to which we have had to become accustomed.

That said, many businesses and households have in this context become accomplished steeplechasers in recent years.

The UK’s economic malaise looks like it will be around for a while yet.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement failed to provide any cheer on this front, with policies that might stimulate growth remaining conspicuous by their absence.

This was no surprise, of course. However, it was nonetheless disheartening.

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility is now projecting UK gross domestic product growth of 0.7% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025, following expansion of 0.6% in 2023.

It had in March projected expansion of 1.8% next year and growth of 2.5% in 2025, so the forecasts for the next two years have been downgraded sharply.

Publishing its latest forecasts to coincide with the Autumn Statement on November 22, the OBR said: “Cumulative real growth from 2023 to 2027 is 2.4 percentage points lower than forecast in March due to a weaker forecast for potential output growth and less spare capacity in the economy at the start of the forecast period.”

For the avoidance of doubt, 2.4 percentage points over that sort of timeframe is a big downward revision.

The OBR noted: “Squeezed real wages, higher interest rates, and unwinding government support all weigh on economic activity, opening up a moderate degree of spare capacity over the next three years.”

The surge in UK interest rates has become an increasingly contentious topic as 2023 has progressed, amid fears that the Bank of England might be overdoing things in its effort to tackle inflation.

It is certainly easy enough to understand the viewpoint of those who say the lagged effects of the surge in UK base rates we have seen already has yet to be felt fully. Especially given the large numbers of people coming off mortgages previously fixed at much lower interest rates.

Only time will tell.

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What is crystal clear is that, after a very long period in which the setting of interest rates had been non-contentious, the differences of opinion that now surround monetary policy decisions are striking indeed.

While trade union Unite has been calling for a cut in interest rates - as you might expect given the pressure higher borrowing costs is putting on people dealing with an all-encompassing inflation crisis - it has not been alone.

The Institute of Economic Affairs think tank said on November 2 that the “shadow monetary policy committee” which it hosts had voted by seven to two to cut base rates. This committee, a group of independent economists, flagged risks of deflation and recession.

The IEA, which describes itself as a “free market think tank”, said: “The shadow monetary policy committee…has concluded that the UK risks a recession caused by excessively high interest rates. A majority are now calling on the Bank [of England] to reverse course and cut the Bank Rate by 0.25 [percentage points] to 5%.”

It added: “The SMPC is concerned that the UK could significantly undershoot the official 2% inflation target over the coming few years, with a risk of deflation slowing down economic activity.”

The IEA made these comments just ahead of the Bank of England announcing on November 2 that its Monetary Policy Committee had voted to hold UK base rates at 5.25%. Base rates were at a record low of 0.1% in December 2021.

Trevor Williams, chairman of the IEA’s shadow monetary policy committee and former chief economist at Lloyds Bank, said on November 2: “There is mounting evidence that the UK’s monetary policy is too tight and could lead to price deflation in a few years and potential recession in the interim. The Bank of England should act now by lowering interest rates.”

Danny Blanchflower, a former member of the MPC who is Bruce V. Rauner ’78 professor of economics at Dartmouth College in the US and a visiting professor at the University of Glasgow, seemed truly exasperated with the Bank of England committee’s decisions on rates when he visited Scotland in June. UK base rates were 4.5% at the time of his visit.

The esteemed economist told an event hosted by Glasgow Chamber of Commerce that there was a very considerable probability on the basis of the Bank of England’s own forecasts out to 2026 that there would be deflation, and asked: “How can you raise rates with a forecast that says you should be cutting rates? They are out of their minds.”

Brexit has of course remained a major challenge for the UK economy this year, and for many firms the length and breadth of the country.

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Mr Blanchflower observed during his June visit: “Sadly, these rate rises have hardly had any impact at all on inflation - which was caused by supply chain issues after the pandemic, the Ukraine war and Brexit. Brexit and its devastating impact on supply chains, especially for food, is what sets the UK apart from every other country. This can't be fixed by rate rises.”

It has been no surprise that Brexit has often been on the lips of insolvency practitioners when it has come to explaining the collapse of companies, or why firms are in dire straits. However, this is again a disheartening situation.

The administrators of Orkney Fishermen’s Society, a long-established supplier of crabs, lobster and other fresh seafood, in October flagged "significant recruitment issues" arising from Brexit as they detailed the causes of the fall of this business into administration.

Thankfully, there was a relatively happy ending for this operation and its employees.

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Joint administrators Michelle Elliot and Callum Carmichael, partners with FRP Advisory, announced they had sold the business and assets of Orkney Fishermen’s Society to Orkney Crab, a subsidiary of Oban company PDK Shellfish, in a deal that saved all 55 jobs.

It has undoubtedly been another eventful year on the business and economic front.

Thankfully, there have been plenty of success stories amid the broader UK macroeconomic gloom.

Scotch whisky distiller Edrington, which owns brands including The Macallan, Highland Park and The Famous Grouse, in the summer announced pre-tax profits before exceptional items of £387.7m for the year to March 31. This was up by 43% on the prior 12 months.

Core revenue, generated from Edrington’s spirit brands, leapt by 22% to £1.082 billion, passing the £1bn mark for the first time.

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Edrington noted as it announced its results that The Robertson Trust, which is the principal shareholder in the global distiller, had donated £343m to charitable causes in Scotland since 1961.

The group is a shining example, in these days of extreme short-termism and woefully brief attention spans, of what decision-making and proper investment with an eye on future decades (as opposed to just the next quarter) can bring.

Such long-term thinking is, of course, assisted by the stable ownership of a charitable trust.

However, other company executives might want to reflect on whether a longer-term approach might deliver better results in their businesses.

Scotland’s family business sector, where long-term thinking is also thankfully often the order of the day, remains a source of much good news.

Returning to the political arena, but this time north of the Border, there has continued to be much focus this year on the relationship between business and the Scottish Government.

Humza Yousaf promised a “new deal” for business shortly after he became First Minister in the spring. At the same time, he announced a delay to the controversial deposit return scheme. And he revealed he had asked officials to go back to the drawing board on proposals for restrictions on alcohol advertising and promotion, with the previous plans having understandably alarmed the alcoholic drinks and retail sectors.

The New Deal for Business Group was set up by Mr Yousaf. And there have been some positive noises from business leaders who sit on this group.

That said, it is early days. And the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.

One thing that does look certain is that 2024 will be another eventful and challenging year, during which businesses and households will continue to have to navigate many obstacles.

The UK economic gloom is not going to dissipate any time soon. This makes it all the more crucial not to forget the points of brightness, and there are enough of them to keep spirits up in these tough times.