It is May 9th 2026 – a Saturday, late in the afternoon. Scotland’s political correspondents gather in stately gardens, sitting before a podium as the sun sits high but a cold chill bites. The man who is about to speak has had two sleepless nights and agitated days as Scotland’s voters decided and the wheels of democracy turned to confirm their decision. Still, he looks fresh, energised by the knowledge that he will soon be First Minister. Anas Sarwar begins to speak.

You cannot convince me that Mr Sarwar has not allowed himself the indulgence of imagining that moment, even if he would deny it and rightly point out that there is a long way to go to the 2026 Scottish Parliament Elections. If it is a scene he wishes to make reality, 2024 may be as vital for him as 2026 – perhaps the most crucial year of his career.

Why do I say this? Because in politics, success breeds success, at least in the early, heady days of political momentum before inertia sets in and political entropy begins to do its work. The 2024 general election, whenever it comes, will be the first national election Scottish Labour will have fought that they have a realistic prospect of winning since 2011, and if utilised properly, can function as a springboard to 2026.

The current polls paint a bit of a mixed picture, at least regarding headline voting intention. Since the start of October, three have had the SNP ahead of Labour in the Westminster vote, two have had Labour ahead of the SNP, and two have had the two parties tied.

From Labour’s point of view, the most positive of these polls was fielded by YouGov for the Scottish Election Study, in which Labour led the SNP by 38% of the vote to 32%. According to Electoral Calculus, that would hand Labour 31 of Scotland’s 57 seats once boundary changes are taken into account. The SNP would win just 16, down from the 43 they currently hold and the 48 they won in 2019.

The least positive was an Ipsos poll conducted at the end of November, in which the SNP led Labour by 40% to 30%. That would result in the SNP winning 44 seats to Labour’s nine – a significant difference in outcomes.

But beneath the turbulent surface of Scottish politics and opinion polling, there are trends that suggest that 2024 will be a big year for Scottish Labour and Anas Sarwar.

Read more: Mark McGeoghegan: Kissinger was a vastly overrated bureaucrat

The first is the weakening link between independence support and support for the SNP. Last December, Ipsos found that 84% of independence supporters would vote for the SNP in a general election. By May this year, that had fallen to 77%. Now, it sits at 74%.

Ipsos has found higher SNP support than other polls over the past year, and other polls likewise find an even weaker link between independence support and SNP voting intention. Just 61% of independence supporters in the latest Savanta UK poll said they would vote SNP in a general election, with 7% undecided and 21% saying they would vote Labour.

Linked to this is a second trend: the resurgence of anti-Conservative tactical voting intention. Recent analyses by the Scottish Election Study’s Professor Ailsa Henderson found that a plurality of voters now prioritise ejecting the Conservatives from office over maximising the number of MPs who share their constitutional preference.

That includes 44% of pro-independence SNP voters, almost as many as prioritise maximising the number of pro-independence MPs. To be clear, those voters still say they would vote SNP, but their underlying attitudes suggest Labour could win them over in an election primarily about changing the government at Westminster.

The same analyses found that pro-Union voters are more likely to prioritise their constitutional preference over their party preference. So, Labour could also benefit from tactical voting among Conservative voters who prioritise defeating the SNP over keeping the Conservatives in power.

All of this suggests that political circumstances are conspiring towards a Scottish Labour victory in 2024, at least winning more seats than the SNP, if not most Scottish seats. The trick for Mr Sarwar is to convert this into a springboard for 2026.

Victory in the UK will be Sir Keir Starmer’s. If Labour want to maximise victory’s effectiveness as a springboard to retaking Holyrood, victory in Scotland must belong to Anas Sarwar. That means making him the face of Labour’s campaign north of the border.

Mr Sarwar is a greater electoral asset to Scottish Labour than Sir Keir is. Ipsos found that Mr Sarwar is the only party leader at a Scottish or UK level with positive satisfaction ratings in Scotland, while Sir Keir is -20 points underwater with Scottish voters.

A third of independence supporters and a third of 2021 SNP voters – the voters Labour need to win over – are satisfied with Mr Sarwar’s performance as Scottish Labour leader. Just a quarter of such voters are satisfied with Sir Keir.

But the same poll found that while Scots, on balance, believe UK Labour is ready to form the next government at Westminster, they do not see Scottish Labour as a government in waiting at Holyrood.

A separate Ipsos poll in September found that while Scots are dissatisfied with the Scottish Government’s performance, less than a third think that Scottish Labour would do a better job. This suggests that while victory is on the horizon for Labour in 2024, there is much work to do before 2026.

Mr Sarwar is relatively popular and a reasonably effective campaigner; 2024 is the year for Scottish Labour to establish him as someone Scots could imagine walking into Bute House. Scotland is in a “change mood”. Scottish Labour victory and SNP defeat in 2024 would confirm that the independence campaign is in hibernation and rob the SNP of their status as the party of change.

Read more: Mark McGeoghegan: Why Humza Yousaf cannot deal with the crises besetting him

By making Anas Sarwar the face of that victory, Labour would ensure that he becomes the face of political change in Scotland, having led his party to victory and injected further momentum into Scottish Labour’s revival, heading into a 2026 election in which voters will want a fresh start at Holyrood.

Mr Sarwar’s path to that sunny press conference in May 2026 runs through the 2024 elections, and political circumstances are conspiring to give him the best possible opportunity to take advantage.