Scottish education has been tarnished - despite Sturgeon's promises

We did have many prestigious higher education institutions for the size of our population (still do). Pursuing equality through education was a deeply embedded principle. And we did have a respected exam system, Highers, that allowed pupils to retain a broad sweep of subjects right up to the end of school.

Scotland’s educational prowess was something we projected beyond our borders. At a time when Scotland’s nationhood was suppressed, it was part of our soft power and has remained so right up until the 21st century.

But can that still be said to hold true?

Next month, the latest Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) figures will be published. Involving 90 countries, this respected series of tests is designed to measure 15-year-olds’ ability to use their reading, science and maths knowledge to meet real-life challenges.

READ MORE: Covid inquiry’s pitiless behind-the-curtains view flatters no one

The last survey, published in 2018, was not reassuring for Scotland. Reading scores had improved after declining in 2012, but performance in maths and science had declined since 2006 both in relation to other countries and to Scotland’s prior performance.

England now heads the pack among UK nations.

A report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) last week noted one significant big tick in Scotland’s favour, namely that it was one of the world’s top-performing nations when it came to children’s global competence. This means pupils in Scotland have a striking ability to “examine local, global and intercultural issues, understand and appreciate different perspectives and world views, [and] interact successfully and respectfully with others” – something that Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) explicitly set out to ensure.

But overall the IFS was gloomy. It noted Scotland’s “disappointing” performance in core subjects and said this nation had gone from being a high performer to an average performer within the OECD. It added that large amounts of spending and the new curriculum have not improved performance.

Under Alex Salmond, Scotland withdrew from two other global comparisons of educational achievement, though Humza Yousaf recently rejoined them. So the PISA scores carry a lot of weight. And they have contributed to a persistent narrative about Scotland’s declining educational standards.

Scottish education still has its strengths (Image: free)

The opposition parties at Holyrood complain of the falling standards all the time, as you would expect, and are often greatly overstating it. As ever in politics the truth is much more nuanced. But many teachers and academics do have concerns. Something in the Scottish education system isn’t working as it should.

For one thing, the much-lamented attainment gap remains stubbornly agape in spite of apparently being a key priority during Nicola Sturgeon’s eight years in power.

Separately, prior to the pandemic, there was alarm about falling attainment at Highers, with a drop over four years in the number of pupils achieving three or more. Education policy expert Prof Lindsay Paterson, writing in February 2020, noticed that the decline came after changes to exams and courses following the introduction of Curriculum for Excellence. He worried about the possibility of a “deterioriating grounding in basic knowledge”.

Since the pandemic, and the exam results debacle in 2020, there has been more worry and the announcement of a “substantial” reform of education. An OECD report on secondary school education in 2021 was supportive of Curriculum for Excellence but pointed to a “misalignment” between its aims and the assessment-heavy final years of secondary.

It called for a better balance between breadth and depth of learning, and noted concerns that teaching was failing to keep pace with best practice. Following a further review, it was announced the Scottish Qualifications Authority and Education Scotland were to be replaced and radically different new qualifications introduced, but the education secretary Jenny Gilruth has since put the brakes on that process, explaining “as Cabinet Secretary I need to be certain these changes are the right ones for Scotland’s young people”. It does not entirely inspire confidence in the direction of travel.

Collectively all this has contributed to a sense of insecurity about Scottish schooling and that could be deeply wounding to the SNP.

READ MORE: How can ministers support the creaking NHS? Be brave on public health

For the nationalist party of Scotland to have presided over a loss of confidence in Scottish schooling – to have been entrusted with the family silver only to squander it, as some would have it – is politically dangerous for them. Not only is education a core public service, not only is it wholly the responsibility of the Scottish Government, not only has it been Scotland’s pride for centuries, but the SNP under Nicola Sturgeon asked to be judged on it. The upcoming PISA scores could catapult schools up the First Minister’s list of headaches.

We don’t know yet of course what they will show, except that they will inevitably be distorted by the pandemic. The Scottish Government will be hoping that the attainment gap will have closed a bit and that Scotland’s higher spend per pupil than the other nations of the UK (£1300 more in 2022/23) will have helped improve results. It will be difficult news for them if there is no such bump.

Ministers can’t solve this knotty problem before the 2026 election but they will need to convince sceptical observers that the will is there to get to the root of what’s misfiring and take the necessary steps to sort it out.

It’s complex and multifaceted. Do we value and remunerate our teachers properly? Do we give them enough tools to enforce discipline, which has deteriorated since the pandemic? Are we maintaining the broad general education for long enough in practice? Are the proposed reforms going to result in improved attainment in core subjects? Have we got the balance right between knowledge and skills-based education?

Above all, are we absolutely sure we’ve understood the problem before setting out the solution?