So, 15 SNP MSPs are preparing to operate as a distinct grouping – likened by some commentators to a Scottish European Research Group – publishing policy papers, pushing "business-friendly" policy and even amending government legislation.

If true, that's a new departure for the SNP and suggests Kate Forbes’ supporters are not going quietly. Equally obviously it'll be hard for Humza Yousaf to exert discipline since this chunk of SNP support has no representation in his cabinet, the long period of sitting on policy difference is evidently over, and a crackdown would look heavy-handed.
But clearly, the rebel 15 want to bring matters to a head over the SNP’s agreement with the Greens, even though "their" controversial flagship policies, like the bottle deposit return scheme, actually pre-date the Bute House agreement and were supported by Labour, the Lib Dems and some Tories too.

The voting system used to elect MSPs means that even without a formal pact, the SNP will probably always rely on another party for stability. So cooperation, coalition and compromise will always be the name of the game. Would these rebels rather that the SNP spends time and energy creating a majority for each separate vote as a minority government – in hock each time to Labour or Tory MSPs?

Indeed the "economic conservatives" – and they’d better rebrand fast – may experience a backlash from party members who did elect Humza Yousaf, and generally placed him second even when they voted for other candidates. After a period of unparalleled internecine warfare during the contest, many SNP members just want their government to get on with governing minus pelters from their own side, or any embarrassing divisions on votes to challenge the UK Government’s proposed use of Section 35 veto powers. There may be irritation at the Green tail wagging the SNP dog, but there could be greater annoyance if a group of SNP MSPs – elected on a party ticket – appear to jostle with the Greens for backseat control.

Equally, if both "sides" produce a coherent economic strategy, rather than a pick n mix of difficult individual policies to wrangle over, it’s not at all clear the "pro-business" grouping will win. Kate Forbes was indeed more popular than Mr Yousaf with the general public during the contest. But that fact doesn’t explain precisely which characteristics they liked best. It could’ve been her economic emphasis on wealth creation, her criticism of the SNP’s record as mediocre, her stance on moral issues or her bold and at times confrontational demeanour.

We’ll never quite know, but if Forbes’ general stance is so counterpoised to the new Scottish Government that a rebel grouping is formed, it rather explains why Humza Yousaf couldn’t keep Kate Forbes at Finance and hope to present one coherent economic strategy to the nation.

Indeed, if the new SNP leader is facing choppy waters, it’s nothing compared to the upset that would have followed victory for either of his rivals. The difference is that they (essentially) guaranteed disruption, whereas the "continuity" candidate guaranteed a steady ship, but then opted not to include Kate Forbes’ outlook in government after she declined the Rural Affairs brief.

Even though no names are yet attached to the "gang of 15", their identity can be guessed at and some may feel they’ve nothing to lose career-wise, and that total must include some Yousaf supporters. Perhaps, in the end his decision will be justified. But for the meantime, it must be owned.

There's been criticism of Ross Greer for having the temerity to argue with former veteran SNP minister, Fergus Ewing MSP, who called the Scottish Greens "wine-bar revolutionaries who’ve never got their fingers dirty" in the implacably unionist Daily Mail. Strong words. But many progressive party members feared that a Kate Forbes victory would see Mr Ewing return to office, favouring the big business and farming interests that have dominated Scotland for so long. These pro-Green, pro-wellbeing economy, pro-redistribution voices are far quieter than their emboldened opponents however (getting labels right should be easier when Humza Yousaf’s explained how his government will differ from the last one).

It strikes me the big weakness of the SNP/Green government has been its unwillingness to get out from behind the desks and explain policies to the public – typified by Lorna Slater's initial refusal to come on BBC Scotland and deal with problems facing small producers in the bottle deposit return scheme.

Of course, a sure sign of government on the slide is blaming unpopular policies on bad communications. But this time, it’s partly true since there is majority public support for many of the policy positions opposed by the rebel 15.

A recent poll found seven out of 10 Scots support the introduction of deposit return on drink bottles and cans.

A February BBC survey found 57% support for making a gender recognition certificate easier to get – rising to 70% backing amongst under-35s and 63% amongst women. Though other polling has been more negative.

A Yougov poll found 70% of SNP voters support "getting off oil and gas as quickly as possible", while 45% support a ban on new exploration for oil and gas (compared to 39% opposed, and 16% don’t knows.) A whopping 86% backed a National Energy Company to ensure Scots benefit from future green investment. Since Wales is firing ahead with just such a proposal, why not Scotland? This massively popular policy would get the Scottish Government out of its puzzling, pious Green onlooker role and slightly mitigate fury over the undervalued Scotwind franchise auctions.

Meanwhile, a joint British/Scottish Government survey in November found 85% support the creation of Marine Protected Areas. Of course, that proportion might drop if the question suggested fragile island economies could be damaged in the process. The policy is at consultation stage. A compromise can be found.

The point is that the "continuity" SNP government may be more in tune with general public opinion than the rebel 15, but has "shy" support that doesn’t become vocal when "economic conservatives" are on the attack.

Humza Yousaf will imminently outline a strategy for government.

But meantime one message should be on the desk of every minister.

Don’t assume and don’t just legislate – get out to the electorate and communicate.