UNITY is an elevated state that all parties and their leaders aspire to but few achieve and, if they do, it eventually crumbles from within. The trick in politics is to keep appearance and reality as far away from each other as possible.
Nicola Sturgeon’s departure underlined how her dominant presence had for the most part kept the “broad church” of the SNP together; so remarkably in fact that some Nationalists probably had no idea just how broad it really was with the socially conservative Kate Forbes almost snatching the crown from the socially liberal Humza Yousaf’s grasp.
From the warm comfort of the side-lines, it was refreshing during the leadership contest to see candidates engaging in policy debates; often passionately.
All of which again revealed that the party’s carefully-crafted appearance of calm unity was, in reality, a brittle veneer that, without the Supreme Leader’s skilful touch, could have broken easily.
Following his narrow 52-48 victory on Monday, Mr Yousaf boldly declared how unity had miraculously been restored. “We are no longer Team Humza, Ash or Kate; we are one team.”
But that’s not how some of his colleagues saw it. Political wounds can take a lifetime to heal.
From the priceless expressions of disdain from Ash Regan to the defeated and despondent Ms Forbes telling her new party leader “where to stick it” - allegedly - when offered a demotion, the SNP didn’t quite have the look of unity and harmony.
Given the closeness of the result, with all but half of party members wanting the Highland MSP in charge, one would have thought that Mr Yousaf might have judged it wiser to ensure she was in the tent rather than threatening to become a magnet for disaffection should things not go swimmingly for the novice FM in the short to medium term.
The ever-helpful Alex Neil, the ex-Cabinet Secretary and a Forbes supporter, couldn’t contain his displeasure, describing the offer made to her of the rural affairs brief as an “insult and not a real effort to unite”.
Yesterday, Fergus Ewing, another ex-minister-turned-rebel, called for the end to the power-sharing agreement between the Scottish Government and its Green chums, branding the latter “wine bar pseudo-intellectuals”.
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As the FM unveiled his new-look Cabinet, he insisted, with a straight face, there “could not be more unity” in the SNP. Really?
In a clear bid to shore up the base, Mr Yousaf has struck a defiant pose on the constitutional question, expressing certainty that “we will be the generation that delivers independence for Scotland”.
But in his brief conversation with Rishi Sunak when he mentioned his desire for Indyref2, there was the inevitable knock-back.
Undeterred, one of Mr Yousaf’s more eye-catching appointments has been that of Jamie Hepburn as the Minister for Independence.
Naturally, it provoked an irate response from the Scottish Conservatives, who fired off a letter of protest to John-Paul Marks, Scotland’s top civil servant. Donald Cameron, the party’s constitution spokesman, claimed it was “not an appropriate use of taxpayer funding” given the Scottish Government is powerless to hold another vote on Scotland’s future.
But I suspect Mr Yousaf is happy a political nerve has been tweaked, believing that if the Tories are complaining about something, it must be the right decision.
Perhaps more concerning to the SNP chief will be the prospect of a by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, which now seems likely given the proposed 30-day Commons ban on Margaret Ferrier for recklessly breaking Covid rules.
The independent MP, who lost the SNP whip and was sentenced to 270 hours’ community service after pleading guilty to the breach, has a majority of 5,230. Because of parliamentary process, it could be several months before any poll takes place; no doubt much to Mr Yousaf’s relief.
But if and when it does happen, an almighty clash can be expected as it could prove to be the new SNP chief’s first electoral test and Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar will be pouring huge resources into the once Labour-held constituency to build momentum towards the 2024 General Election.
Indeed, a new poll, published yesterday - the first since the Glasgow Pollok MSP took over from Ms Sturgeon - suggested things are moving in Labour’s direction in Scotland.
The Savanta snapshot of 1,000 adults showed, since February, that on Westminster voting intentions the SNP was down three on 39% while Labour was up one on 33% with the Tories up two on 19%.
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Since June 2022, the gap has narrowed five consecutive times, with the SNP lead falling by 15 points from 21 to just six, which is one of the smallest gaps between the SNP and the second-placed party since the 2014 referendum. Messrs Starmer and Sarwar will be marvelling at the direction of travel.
It’s projected that if these numbers were replicated at the General Election, the SNP would lose 18 seats, 45 to 27, and Labour would pick up 17, one to 18, with the Tories remaining on six seats and the Lib Dems winning five, up one.
The poll figures also showed Labour closing the gap with the SNP on Holyrood voting intentions.
While the comrades will be buoyed by these numbers, complacency remains their biggest enemy.
Mr Yousaf, meanwhile, has the tigers of NHS waiting lists, the deposit return scheme and the gender recognition reform bill to grapple with.
As the heat of the General Election battle intensifies, the party leaders will desperately try to instil unity in the ranks to maximise their chances at the ballot box.
The survival instinct, of course, will kick in as MPs desperately try to keep their seats and become eager to help maintain at least an appearance of party unity. Yesterday, Sir Keir insisted he was leading a “united” Labour Party after the leadership banned Jeremy Corbyn as an election candidate.
However, keeping the lid on policy divisions and personality differences is always a tricky business. Yet political reality will, sooner or later, always reveal itself. Thankfully.
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