Why the crisis in trust has hit Scotland harder than England

Firstly, confidence in the British Parliament has collapsed, halving over the last three decades. In 1990, 46% of us trusted Parliament. Today, it’s 22%. In Norway, 70% trust their parliament. In France, it’s 33%. It’s notable that most France-watchers believe the far-right Marine Le Pen will become the nation’s next president.

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Between 1999 and 2009, all generations felt broadly the same level of trust towards parliament. By 2022, a generational gap had opened, with the pre-war generation (34%) and baby boomers (28%) retaining most trust. Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X were on 18%, 17% and 19% respectively.

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Trust in government is basically as bad. Only 24% of us have confidence in government. That puts us on a par with Brazil at 23%. In Norway, trust in government stands at 59%. In Indonesia, it’s 79%. In 2005, 33% of us trusted the Government. That was in the wake of the Iraq invasion, and the fury caused by Labour pursuing a war based on lies. However, Tory austerity and scandal has deepened distrust in Britain’s government.

Alienation toward the government is most marked among the younger generation. In 2005, 41% of Millennials trusted government. Today, it’s 20%.

The UK has one of the lowest scores when it comes to trust in political parties: 13%. This again puts on us a par with Brazil. France scores lower with 12%. In Norway, trust is 36%. In Indonesia, it’s 37%. Since 2005, trust in political parties has never exceeded 17% in Britain.

By contrast, trust in Britain's civil service has remained stable: almost 50% in both 1981 and 2022. However, that’s tempered by the fact that nations like Norway, Sweden and Germany trust their civil service by respective margins of 70%, 63% and 62%.

The long-term study of trust when it comes to the European Union reveals some startling changes. Between 1990 and 1999, consistent anti-EU rhetoric among the press and rightwing politicians caused trust to fall from 47% to 22%. Trust, however, has now rebounded. Today, 39% of us trust the EU.

In other words, more Britons trust the EU than either parliament or government. Scotland has very high trust in Europe, coming in at 50%, in Northern Ireland it’s 42%, England 39% and Wales 37%. Confidence in the EU among baby-boomers – seen as the Brexit generation – has risen from 18% in 2005 to 34% today.

Read more: In these grim times, neither Holyrood nor Westminster offers vision

Figures for the four nations of the UK show overall levels of trust higher in England than Scotland.

On government, trust figures are: England 25%, Scotland 20%, Wales 19% and Northern Ireland 17%.

For parliament it’s England 23%, Scotland 20%, Wales 19% and Northern Ireland 13%. 

For political parties it’s Wales 16%, Scotland and England 13%, and Northern Ireland 10%.

By contrast the Philippines scores 82%, 70% and 63% when it comes to trust in government, parliament and political parties respectively.

The only possible conclusion to the lower levels of trust in Scotland must be the political division caused by the constitutional question.

Crucially, when it comes to Brexit, 49% of Britons are disappointed in leaving the EU, compared to 24% who are happy. Disappointment levels rise to 59% in Scotland (14% happy), and 54% in Northern Ireland (19% happy). In England disappointment levels stand at 48% (25% happy), in Wales 44% (22% happy).

Clearly, the press plays a major role in shaping Britain. The response from the public is not edifying for journalism: just 13% of Britons trust the press. The only country with less confidence is Egypt on 8%. Trust in the press stands at 43% in Canada, a nation where Rupert Murdoch never gained a foothold, rising to 70% in Japan.

The only generation to see trust in the press rise in Britain is the pre-war generation: 25% trust the press, compared to 5% of Gen Z. This bodes disastrously in demographic terms for the future of newspapers unless the industry can somehow find a way to speak to younger generations. The pre-war generation is now well into its 80s.

Trust in the police has also crashed through the floor, from 87% in 1981 to 67% today. In Germany trust stands at 86%; in Morocco 47%. Only 44% of Gen Z trust police. In 1981, 83% of baby boomers trusted police, now it’s 71%. In London, trust has fallen to 55%, reflecting the scandals which have plagued the Met.

When it comes to the justice system and the courts, the UK does better: 65% of us trust the judiciary. In America, it’s 58%, in Brazil 50% and in Nigeria 43%. In Norway, 86% trust the courts and in Japan 78%.

Read more: Scottish politicians play with fire by using the language of war

Professor Bobby Duffy, director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, says the figures show Britain must “work hard and quickly to shore up public confidence”. In truth, what we’re seeing is a systemic crisis in legitimacy across the entire UK.

Politics has increasingly divided and atomised us: pitting citizens against each other in terms of identity. Politicians have also prioritised culture war issues and the constitution over bread-and-butter policies which matter to our lives.

Unsurprisingly, figures were released yesterday showing satisfaction with the NHS dropping to a record low – just 29% say they are satisfied with the health service. There was also a timely intervention by former US president Barack Obama this week when he said that the polarisation in many English-speaking countries has been fuelled by the Murdoch media.

An optimist would say that there’s still time to roll back this wave of distrust … for if there’s not, if we’re too late, then who knows what will befall these islands? A nation without trust is a nation without hope, and a people without hope may make very troubling, even dangerous, choices.