Sunak and the tricky Northern Ireland protocol

The ex-PM’s assertion there would be no checks on GB to NI goods and the one about how there would be no border down the Irish Sea “over my dead body” were nothing more than examples of his back-catalogue of bluster and duplicity.

Political change in Northern Ireland often happens at a glacial pace; deadlines come and go. So, Rishi Sunak was accused by one colleague of “jumping the gun” by allowing hopes to be raised of an imminent protocol deal on the back of his visit last week to Belfast.

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Another key decision made by the PM was to keep the Democratic Unionist leadership out of the loop when details of an agreement were being hammered out by London and Brussels. A party insider pointed out there had been “no backchannels”.

Understandably, Mr Sunak feared the DUP could, directly or indirectly, damage the delicate talks’ process by being given too much information at the wrong time. Yet if a deal isn’t done, critics will point to this omission as a big failure of judgement by the PM.

After weeks of secrecy, some details of the proposed deal are seeping out.

As well as the plan for new red and green trade lanes, ending checks on GB goods shipped to Northern Ireland, it’s suggested Westminster and not Brussels would set taxation, VAT rates and state aid policy.

Mr Sunak told MPs he would be “resolute in fighting for what is best for Northern Ireland and the UK” and a deal must guarantee “sovereignty for Northern Ireland” and its place “in our precious Union”.

Addressing the “democratic deficit,” there is the so-called “Stormont Lock,” allowing MLAs some say over the EU trade rules but without a complete veto on new single market legislation applying in Northern Ireland; possibly a deal-killer for some.

One problem for Mr Sunak is the extending timescale; the longer an agreement doesn’t materialise, the greater the chance things could unravel. More talks took place in Brussels yesterday after Whitehall sources indicated the deal timetable had now been put back to next week; at the earliest.

Another is the reaction of who Sir Keir Starmer described as the Tory “irreconcilables”, “malcontents” and “wreckers,” namely the ERG Brexiteer group. But he urged the PM not to worry because the Opposition would help him get any deal through the Commons. Politically, however, it wouldn’t be a good look if Mr Sunak has to rely on Labour votes.

Yesterday, lawyers for Tory Brexiteers sent a proposal to the PM, suggesting an end to EU law operating in Northern Ireland; that any business exporting to the EU, which breached Brussels’ regulations, would be prosecuted in British courts not at the European Court of Justice.

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If a deal were finally agreed, then the DUP and the ERG would demand a Commons vote but the PM hasn’t guaranteed one, saying only Parliament would be able to “express its view”. It’s not difficult to imagine the Tory Spartans turning the air blue should the PM seek to avoid a vote.

Underlining the division within Tory ranks, one non-ERG Conservative MP said: “I don’t think the party has a complete death-wish. What is the ERG going to do about it? They might huff and puff but there doesn’t have to be a vote and there’s no legislative vehicle to bring the deal down. Most MPs just don’t want this battle. We want to get on with other things.”

And all the while lingering in the dusty Westminster shadows is you-know-who.

Last weekend, George Osborne, the ex-Chancellor, gave a blunt assessment of his one-time colleague’s ambitions. “Boris wants to bring down Rishi Sunak and he will use any instrument to do it. And if the Northern Ireland negotiations are that instrument, he will pick it up and hit Mr Sunak over the head with it.”

Ex-chancellor George Osborne remarked last weekend that 'Boris wants to bring down Rishi Sunak and he will use any instrument to do it' (Image: Newsquest)

The ex-PM has privately branded Mr Sunak’s EU negotiating strategy “wholly irrational” and is mulling over whether to go public. He’s unhappy the party leader has all but shelved his Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which would empower the UK Government to ignore parts of the Brexit deal. But Brussels reportedly won’t do a deal unless it’s scrapped.

Securing a protocol deal would be a feather in the PM’s cap. It would finally clean up his old boss’s mess and “get Brexit done”. Politically, it would also breathe life into his and his party’s slender chance of holding onto power come the 2024 General Election.

An agreement that has the backing of the DUP would bring on board the Spartan Tories and also help stay the twitching hand of Mr Johnson, who desperately wants to plunge in the metaphorical knife of revenge and return to Number 10.

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However, a failure to get a deal over the line would put back further the much-needed return of Stormont, enable the chief comrade to claim it was another example of the Tory leader’s weakness and create a terrible backdrop to the 25th anniversary of the Belfast Agreement at Easter. Apart from anything else, it would kibosh US President Joe Biden’s headline visit to mark the occasion.

Coming alongside a restrained spring Budget from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt that will disappoint the Tory Right and the expected Conservative drubbing at England’s local elections in May, a failure to resolve the protocol problem would also be a mighty blow to the PM’s electoral chances as Brexiteer discontent and disharmony would bubble over and continue through until polling day.

All of which means that the next week or so could be the most critical period yet for Mr Sunak’s uncertain political future.