A post-Sturgeon boost is unlikely for Labour

Can Anas Sarwar and Sir Keir Starmer convince “lost” SNP and Green voters? The chances of this are vanishingly small for one reason - Labour north and south of the border are so thoroughly captured by caution and conservatism.

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The latest poll results analysed on the BBC’s Sunday Show by Sir John Curtice reveal no big change in Labour support since Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation. Admittedly, that could change as the reality of her imminent disappearance sinks in and attention focuses on leadership contenders who inevitably lack the clout and profile Ms Sturgeon has acquired over 20 long years on the front line.

But Prof Curtice highlights the biggest problem for Scottish Labour: they must primarily please existing voters and those currently signing up – folk very largely on the unionist side of the constitutional divide. In other words, Labour and the Conservatives are simply churning support as they have done since 2011 – not converting Yessers in any great numbers.

Sir John concludes, “So far Labour’s advance is limited. It’s primarily a party appealing to No voters and its reach into Yes territory is still much more limited than amongst unionists.”

Of course, if there was a wholesale shift by Tory voters to Labour, then even without SNP converts, the party could do well at a General Election, especially with tactical voting. But that would cement the image of Scottish Labour as Tory-lite - the timorous Scottish end of a union-flag-hugging, God Save the King-singing Labour Party in London. And whilst supporters might hold their noses during a General Election, that will make Anas Sarwar fairly unelectable as First Minister in a Holyrood vote.

But perhaps Scots are warming to Keir Starmer? Research by YouGov in October 2022 found the Labour leader’s net favourability rating in Scotland was +13, higher than Nicola Sturgeon on +11.

But something else was happening last October – Prime Minister Liz Truss – and the same poll gave her a whopping -70 favourability rating here.

Back then, all political debate was focused on the sheer awfulness and unapologetic right-wingery of Trussonomics and her barking-mad Conservative Party on the Westminster and international stage. If a Labour leader wasn’t riding high against such a Prime Minister, soon to be abandoned by her party, colleagues and the blessed markets, there would be something far wrong.

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So, one might reasonably conclude the increased support for Sir Keir in Scotland came from unionist voters who once saw the Tories as their best bet and suddenly realised that boat had sailed. It’s not at all clear Sir Keir bridged the great divide to win support from ex-Labour, independence-supporting progressives backing the SNP and Greens – then or now.

And there’s the rub. It’s hard to maintain existing unionist support and win over new conservative voters whilst also attracting their polar opposite – the folk who voted Labour till independence offered a different route to the social democracy the bulk of Scots have supported since 1955.

In fairness, the SNP has much the same problem. It’s core vote wants progress towards independence, and a confident new leader to spend time and even political capital explaining why a de facto referendum lets that argument be put clearly and won or lost so we can all move on. But the voters it must attract are not convinced by the de facto plan.

Given that all eyes are currently on SNP leadership contenders, much energy is devoted to their difficulty squaring the circle with far less expended on Labour’s own dilemma. But it certainly exists. On Sunday, Anas Sarwar told Martin Geissler of the BBC that there would be no new tax rises if he became First Minister; “but I’m all for a more progressive tax system”. Whit?

The Labour leader gamely contended that the public objects to having the same outcomes after paying higher taxes. He argued Scottish Labour would improve outcomes before tackling the taxation system.

As Father Dougal might ask, “How that does that work, Ted?” How do you improve services without extra funding when every part of the Labour movement in trade unions and councils are screaming out for higher pay, better conditions, and more money spent on basics to transform northern Europe’s most chronically underfunded welfare state?

In any case, a December Savanta poll showed Scots aren’t unhappy about our progressive tax system, with top earners’ tax rises backed by 58% and opposed by just 19% and 73% backing the Scottish Government’s plan to spend that extra cash on health and social care. What tax perception problem is Mr Sarwar trying to fix, or is he under instructions not to endorse anything resembling tax and spend – even though it's popular in Scotland – lest that’s used against Sir Keir “fully costed” Starmer?

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Then there was the wee kicker that a Scottish arm of Sir Keir’s British Energy will be set up in Scotland. Could any phrase more quickly summon the branch office genie that was unleashed by former leader Johann Lamont and helped destroy Scottish Labour in 2007?

There’s another snag. The UK polls suggest a total wipe-out lies ahead for the Tories, so that Scottish votes won’t make a difference. Thus, many progressive unionists might secretly relish the prospect of the SNP becoming His Majesty’s Opposition, keeping Sir Keir real and restraining his latent conservativism.

Unless Scots can be persuaded the General Election result is on a knife-edge and that Scottish seats will make any difference – and they’ve only changed the outcome of four general elections since 1918 – there’s no incentive for voters to switch from the SNP to Labour.

This could all change. But Scottish Labour post-Nicola Sturgeon are far from home and dry.