Have Trump's foreign policy intentions been 'hidden in plain sight'?

Life in such places touched by war has been tough these past months and years, and many now fear that things will get even more arduous now that the American people have chosen Donald Trump as their next president.

With a sequel of “Make America Great Again” about to get underway, what then can the rest of the world expect from a Trump presidency? Are the fears of those caught up in the world’s conflicts or pondering strategy in far off corridors of power that Trump is about to make things worse really justified or simply unfounded?

With just over two months to prepare for Trump’s return to the White House they will not have long to wait before getting a real sense of whatever new US foreign policy will come with his presidency.

If Trump’s past record is anything to go by, then already there are at least indicators. Defined as his last term in office was by among other things isolationism, trade wars and a clear disdain towards the EU and NATO, many expect Trump will more than likely resort to type. Prevailing thinking too suggests that this time round there will be fewer constraints or guardrails in place.

For whatever the nature of politics among those within Trump’s previous administration, many were undoubtedly seasoned public servants used to shaping foreign policy, security, defence and intelligence issues.

Experience of their respective portfolios would often have served as a restraining mechanism on Trump’s more impulsive or potentially rash decision making. Whether the same can be expected over the next four years will very much depend on who the president picks for the big national security roles.

The problem here of course is that Trump has already fallen out with so many candidates of calibre and could well resort to surrounding himself with what he perceives as loyalists and acolytes.

In other words those with their hands on the reins of power will almost certainly be Trump “true believers” more than willing to urge him on unfettered rather than act as cautionary influencers.

This still image taken from a footage by AFP shows Ukrainian servicemen firing with a D-30 howitzer at Russian positions near Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, on March 21, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Sergey SHESTAK / AFP)

Uncertainty

As The Economist magazine observed recently a lot of the uncertainty as to the trajectory of Trump’s foreign policy arises from the fact that broadly speaking he presides over three schools of thought in the Republican Party.

First there are what some call the “primacists” who seek to preserve America’s global leadership and the international order. Among such figures are Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former secretary of state, and Robert O’Brien, his former national security adviser.

Then by contrast comes the “prioritisers” who argue that America is dangerously overstretched and should concentrate its resources where they matter most, in Asia, and leave Europe and the Middle East to mostly look out for themselves.

This school of thought, notes The Economist, overlaps with a third, the “restrainers”, who want America to generally do less in the world. Among those in this camp are vice-president elect J.D. Vance, who hails from the more isolationist wing of the party.

A litmus test of what all this means for US foreign policy and the uncertainty surrounding it can already be seen in concerns that the proposed agendas of two global summits scheduled for the next fortnight are already all but null and void.

In a single stroke even before he is sworn into office, Trump’s re-election is sure to impact decision making at the COP climate talks in Baku and then a week later the G20 leaders’ annual meeting in Rio de Janeiro.

For a long time now Trump has made clear his disinterest or disdain for such multilateral gatherings which historically America has been at the centre of.

In light of this impending shift in role, perhaps the best place to begin to understand what another Trump presidency means for the world is to recognise that the only predictable thing about Trump is his own unpredictability.

“Predictability is a terrible thing,” Richard Grenell, Trump’s former intelligence director who is tipped for an important role in the coming administration, recently told the Financial Times (FT). “Of course the other side (America’s enemies) wants predictability. Trump is not predictable and we Americans like it,” he added.

It is something of a paradox however that while many authoritarian leaders remain wary of Trump’s unpredictability they also take a certain succour from the fact that Trump has a liking for “strongman” autocratic leaders.

In an early sign of how this dynamic operates, no sooner had Trump been elected than Russian president Vladimir Putin was quick to congratulate him and described Trump’s campaign trail comments on restoring relations with Russia and ending the Ukraine war as “worthy of attention.”

On the face of it Trump’s return to the White House would seem to be Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s worst night mare. But some analysts say this may not necessarily be the case.

Israeli Prime Minister's wife Sara Netanyahu, from left, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog and First Lady Michal Herzog attend a ceremony marking the Hebrew calendar anniversary of the Hamas attack on October 7 last year

Ukraine concern

With its back to the wall like never before since Russia’s full scale invasion of its neighbour in 2022, Ukraine has faced a drip feed of support from the US and other allies that prolongs the war without enabling any decisive outcome.

And if some reports are accurate then there are those within Ukraine’s leadership who are said to have grown increasingly frustrated by the Biden administration’s habit of fearing escalation with Russia to the point of debilitation, and the growing gap between big talk of “standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes” and actions that suggest the opposite.

After three years of fighting it could well be then that rather than fear a Trump presidency Ukraine might welcome an American leader who rips up the rule book and helps break the diplomatic log jam that prevents talks to end the war.

For his part Trump with typical bluster has repeatedly boasted that he could instantly “end” Russia’s war in Ukraine, but the question that continues to trouble Ukraine’s leadership is precisely how and on what terms.

Certainly a total sell-out of Ukraine by Trump is unlikely, not least because of opinion within his own Republican base. But that said, Kyiv remains fearful that it could be strongarmed into a settlement that could see the conflict frozen on current lines and Ukraine forced into neutrality, with no obvious security guarantees or restraints on Putin.

Pivotal to what a Trump response will be to the Russia – Ukraine war of course will be his administration’s relationship with NATO. Trump has repeatedly criticised members of the European and North American defence alliance, saying he will not commit to defending countries that are not spending at least 2 per cent of their GDP on defence.

“They want protection, they don’t pay us money for the protection,” Trump has said. “The mob makes you pay money.”

Trump boasts that he coerced NATO countries to spend more on defence during his first term, with some justification and many expect the pressure to intensify in his second.

Sensing this, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is clearly keen to start off on the right foot with Trump by praising the president-elect's attempts to get NATO countries to spend more on defence, even beyond the current 2 per cent of GDP target.

“He is right about this,” Rutte said, just hours after the Trump’s election victory. “You will not get there with the 2 per cent.”

Both Rutte and Trump know that the greatest national security threat to the US, its fellow NATO members, and other US allies is the increasingly aggressive partnership of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, the impact of which is being felt in Ukraine with supplies of Iranian drones to Moscow’s forces and North Korean troops now fighting on the frontline.

China, especially, is bracing for what could be a turbulent period ahead in its escalating great power rivalry with the US, given Trump’s historic political comeback.

His threat to potentially impose tariffs as high as 60 per cent on Chinese goods has the capacity to devastate growth in the world’s second largest economy and upend global supply chains and would only heighten tensions in already rocky relations between the superpowers.

Chinese President Xi Jinping vote at the closing of the 19th Communist Party Congress at the Great Hall of the People on October 24, 2017 in Beijing, China

Very hard time

If Trump implemented the toughest measures against China touted by his supporters including former US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, “that would create a very hard time for US-China trade relations and the entire relationship”, Ma Wei, associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in Beijing recently told the Financial Times.

It’s a view shared by many analysts who say that in the extreme scenario, whereby Beijing was unable to divert some of its trade to the US through other countries, Trump’s 60 per cent tariff would knock a staggering 2.4 percentage points off Chinese GDP growth.

Elsewhere in Asia other nations are also bracing for disruption to traditional alliances, notably Japan and South Korea, which Trump – just as in Europe - has accused of freeloading on Washington’s military protection. Then there is Taiwan that fears Trump might fail to come to the island’s aid or cut a deal with China over its head.

But of all the foreign policy issues that have featured in Trump’s re-election perhaps the most pressing is Israel’s ongoing wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon where more than 43,000 Palestinians and 3,000 Lebanese people have been killed under Israeli bombardment.

While on a personal level Trump might not be the Israeli prime minister’s favourite person – a view by all accounts reciprocated – that did not stop Benjamin Netanyahu, racing to congratulate the US president elect on his victory. In a fawning message he hailed “history’s greatest comeback”, doubtless hoping that Trump will give him even more of a free hand in the wars Israel is fighting in Gaza, Lebanon and against Iran.

If former CIA director and US defence secretary Leon Panetta’s troubling prediction is right, then Trump will give Netanyahu a “blank cheque” in the Middle East possibly opening the way for all-out war between Israel and Iran.

“And so the real question there is whether Netanyahu decides to continue to try to expand that war, go after Iran or do things that basically create an even greater concern about whether or not the Middle East is ever going to resolve itself or be in constant conflict,” Panetta observed, speaking recently on the One Decision podcast which he co-hosts with Sir Richard Dearlove, a former head of MI6, the British intelligence service.

Many believe that Trump has been politically gunning for Iran for some time in much the same way Netanyahu has and now could be the most favourable moment to bring the ultimate pressure to bear on the Islamic Republic.

The news this weekend that the US government has brought charges against an Afghan national in connection with an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump before he was elected as the next president will only further heighten tensions.

Speaking last Thursday, Brian Hook, Trump’s special envoy for Iran during the president-elect’s first term in office, said that his former boss has “no interest in regime change” in Tehran but does seek to isolate and weaken the Islamic Republic.

Hiding in pain sight?

Without asserting any insider knowledge, the former State Department official speaking on CNN said that the incoming commander-in-chief’s foreign policy intentions are “hidden in plain sight,” pointing to Trump’s decisions during the first four years he was in office from 2017 to 2021.

That might well be true, but it has not stopped a wave of jitters coursing through the corridors of power across the world, for global leaders ultimately recognise that dealing with Trump is something of a lottery and anticipating his next move near impossible.

If Trump is a master at anything it’s keeping others guessing over his plans and that applies very much to foreign policy and the international arena. But if wrongfooting rivals is one of his strengths then so too is his uncanny ability to bring both sides to the table. Even Trump’s sternest critics admit this.

Right now, the world is full of rising great power rivalry and therefor a parlous moment. What Donald Trump brings to the global stage remains to be seen, but it will almost certainly be quixotic and transactional in nature. If there is any rule of thumb for those looking on after he steps into the White House in January it really is quite simple – expect the unexpected.