Zelensky’s gamble: Could two cities' fate lead to Ukraine war endgame?

There was good reason for our driver’s haste, given the ever-present threat of Russian shellfire and drone strikes, the evidence of which lay either side of the road in the skeletal remains of buildings and burned-out carapaces of Ukrainian tanks and armoured vehicles.

Pervomaiske marked the frontline – beyond that at the end of the road along which we travelled lay the city of Donetsk which was controlled by Russian forces.

At the other end of the road along which we had just come, barely 28 miles away, sat the city of Pokrovsk which remained under Ukrainian control.

Fast-forward a year, however, and the battlefield landscape in the region has changed dramatically in Russia’s favour with Moscow’s forces now reported to be a mere six miles from the outskirts of Pokrovsk.

“They’re now within artillery range of the city,” Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, confirmed last week speaking to the military podcast War on the Rocks.

Over the past few days a mandatory evacuation of Pokrovsk’s 59,000 population has been ordered, as has a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops southeast of the embattled city to avoid being “tactically encircled” by the Russian advancing troops.

Meanwhile, some 300 miles to the northwest of Pokrovsk – actually inside Russia itself – Ukrainian troops are continuing an advance of their own not far from the city of Kursk, after an incursion earlier this month that marked the first time since the Second World War that foreign troops have invaded Russia.

These two cities, Pokrovsk in Ukraine and Kursk in Russia, have now become the two new epicentres of this war.

And should Russia take Pokrovsk and Ukraine dig in and hold the ground it has taken in the Kursk region, both places could well become bargaining chips in any

territorial trade-off that might form part of a peace deal to end the war that started back in 2022.

Viewed from Ukraine’s perspective, its audacious military incursion into Russian territory in Kursk, catching its enemy off guard, stands in marked contrast to the slow but inexorable loss of ground its forces have experienced in the Donbas around places like Pokrovsk.

A family cries as they see their grandmother leaving on a train, to a safer part of Ukraine, they too will leave tomorrow, at the train station in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, 23 August. (Photo by Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu 

Little consolation

If politically the purpose of Ukraine’s Kursk operation is to build leverage ahead of possible negotiations, then for the moment that will be of little consolation to the thousands of Ukrainians having to up sticks in the face of the Russian advance.

As of last week, following an August 19 directive from the authorities to leave the city, Ukrainian police data shows that more than 45,000 people remained in Pokrovsk, including more than 3,000 children.

But Serhii Dobriak, the head of Pokrovsk’s military administration, was cited by local media last week as saying that the evacuation pace was not fast enough, with only 500 to 600 people departing daily, though the authorities could bring out at least 1,000 a day.

Last Thursday, Ukraine’s national rail network said at least 371 people evacuated by train, with the network having to add nine carriages to accommodate the large crowds.But while being home to tens of thousands of Ukrainians, Pokrovsk also serves as a key hub for the Ukrainian forces thanks to its easy access to Kostiantynivka, another military centre.

The danger is if Pokrovsk falls then Russian troops will break through into open country behind the Ukrainian lines, threaten other strategically important towns like Kramatorsk and open up potential advances towards the big cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhia.

For Moscow, then, the capture of Pokrovsk would be viewed as a strategic success, and while Ukraine’s great hope is that its surprise Kursk offensive would relieve the pressure, on its eastern front, Russia’s advance has been relentless.

According to military analysts and maps of the battlefield produced by the Finland-based Black Bird Group, which tracks developments in the conflict, it would appear that Russian troops have approached the final line of Ukrainian anti-tank ditches and trenches near the town.

In some cases, say the analysts, they have already breached several defensive layers during their advance, but these were less densely fortified.

As for Ukraine’s hope that its Kursk offensive would relieve the pressure on its eastern frontlines, then according to analysts, though Russia has moved troops from other sections of the eastern frontline, it has, in fact, reinforced around Pokrovsk.

“Amid the Kursk offensive, Russia has stopped advancing along most of Ukraine’s front line – with one notable exception: Pokrovsk,” said Kevin Rothrock, the managing editor at the Russian and English-language independent news website Meduza in a social media post.

“In fact, by concentrating efforts here, Russian troops have recently captured more land per week than at any point since May,” Rothrock added.

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting about the situation in border areas of Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions of Russia, at Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside of Moscow

Advance enabled

A SHIFT in Russian tactics has also helped enable their advance around Pokrovsk, Ukrainian military sources confirm.

Speaking to the Associated Press, they told of how the Russians are deploying recurrent waves of smaller infantry units of two to four men.

This has made it much more difficult for Ukrainian drone operators to target them, according to one operator with the 25th Brigade who uses the call sign Groot.

“This is one of the main reasons for Russia’s success in Pokrovsk,” he said. “It’s harder to detect them, especially under the cover of leafy trees.

“As soon as the infantry get under the tree lines, it’s really hard to get them out of there with drones, and that’s why we depend a lot on our infantry,” Groot told AP.

As well as these small infantry assaults, others point to Russia’s use of glide bombs and new types of electronic warfare as having given them the edge around Pokrovsk.

That said, Russia’s gains across the eastern front generally have still cost them dearly, with an estimated 70,000 troops lost in two months, according to the UK Ministry of Defence, which posted the projection losses last month on social media.

For their part, some Ukrainian military point to problems within their own ranks as having helped the Russian gains, especially around Pokrovsk.

Some Ukrainian commanders say there aren’t enough shells, with the enemy firing up to 10 times as many. One account reported in The Economist points also to exhaustion and manpower being a significant factor for the Ukrainians.

“People aren’t made of steel,” Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko told the magazine, adding that Ukrainian troops are outnumbered 4:1, and aren’t getting any rest, with some staying on the frontlines for 30 or 40 days at a time, living in trenches.

Other reports by the news agency AP cite other reasons for the problems, notably undertrained troops being brought in to bolster numbers. Speaking to AP on condition of anonymity or using only their call signs in order to speak freely about sensitive military matters, commanders say the recruits have contributed to a string of territorial losses that enabled Russia’s army to advance, including near Pokrovsk.

“Some people don’t want to shoot. They see the enemy in the firing position in trenches but don’t open fire. That is why our men are dying,” said a frustrated battalion commander in Ukraine’s 47th Brigade.

“When they don’t use the weapon, they are ineffective.”

A Ukrainian soldier walks past at a city hall in Sudzha, Kursk region, Russia, Friday, Aug. 16. This image was approved by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry before publication. (AP Photo)

Lacking faith

Some told AP of having to plan operations with infantry who are unable to shoot targets and uninformed about basic topography, while some recruits simply lacked faith in the battle plans of their superiors and walked away from prepared positions.

But other military observers say the problems are not the recruits and their motivation, but tactical shortcomings.

Viktor Kevliuk, a military expert with the Ukraine-based Centre for Defence Strategies think tank, told AP the training offered to recruits is adequate. He said brigade commanders “are looking for an explanation for tactical failures”.

And in intense fights such as the one in Pokrovsk, “it is the timely tactical decisions of commanders that make the difference”, Kevliuk said.

But if Ukrainian troops have their work cut out in the eastern frontlines, more than two weeks into their surprise offensive in Kursk in western Russia, they have unnerved Russian forces even if, as might be expected, their advance has slowed.

Addressing the nation ahead of Independence Day celebrations yesterday, Ukraine’s president Volodomyr Zelenskyy described the offensive into Russia’s Kursk region as “justice” and a “boomerang for evil”.

He also referred to the Russian border as that “between Ukraine and oppression, between life and death … an independent European state and the number one terrorist organisation in the world”.

The assault on Kursk has served to put the Ukrainian war back into the headlines at a time when Ukraine fatigue was setting in again in the West.

It has also brought the war to

Russian territory, turning the tables more than two years after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Over 130,000 of the civilian population in Kursk oblast has already been evacuated and just this past week, reports surfaced that Russian authorities in the city of Kursk had begun installing concrete shelters “in crowded places” as Ukraine’s incursion into the region continues.

In a post on social media, Kursk acting governor Alexei Smirnov said the locations of 10 had already been decided, with plans to install 60 in total.

“On my instructions, the Kursk city administration identified key points for placing concrete modular shelters in crowded places,” he said. “Also, the operational headquarters is currently considering installing reinforced concrete structures in other settlements in our region.”

Putin irritated

EARLIER this month, when Smirnov tried to explain to Russian president Vladmir Putin how much territory Ukrainian troops had seized, a visibly irritated Putin cut him off.

“Listen, Alexei Borisovich, the military, will report to us on the specifics of the frontline width and depth,” he said. “You tell us about the socio-economic situation and report on assistance provided to people.”

Putin has remained determined that Ukraine’s Kursk incursion does not deliver another puncture to his aura of invincibility and to that end the Russian leader has sought to give the impression that everything is business as usual.

The Kremlin, in turn, has acted to bolster its forces in Kursk.

But as Russia seeks to reinforce the city and Kyiv’s forces now make marginal advances, some Ukrainians and others are questioning why Ukraine is devoting so many resources to taking Russian land rather than defending its own in places like Pokrovsk.

Among the possibilities put forward is to provide Zelenskyy with a territorial card to trade for regions annexed and occupied by Russia at a mooted second peace summit the Ukrainian leader has called for in November.

The only problem with that is Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov took that card off the table on August 20, saying any talks were now impossible following Ukraine’s incursion.

And without the possibility of talks the next logical step is further escalation.

For its part, Kyiv has given no indication as to how long the incursion might last or what Ukraine would seek from the Kremlin to withdraw its forces from Kursk.

Should Pokrovsk fall because of a lack of men and resources, where is the logic in tying them up on Russian soil in Kursk, some frustrated Ukrainians continue to ask?

Zelenskyy and his government know that control over Russia’s vast territories has been central to Putin’s rule.

It’s worth remembering that the Russian leader came to power vowing to crush a military insurgency that had established Chechnya as a breakaway state in southern Russia.

Knowing this, perhaps the prevailing thinking in Kyiv is that here lies the best chance of leveraging something out of Moscow should negotiations over peace ever get under way.

In the meantime, of course, Ukraine would need to hold onto its gains inside Russia around Kursk.

While Zelenskyy’s endgame remains uncertain, what is increasingly clear is the possibility of losing Pokrovsk to Russian control even if that could be some time off yet.

Whatever the outcome, those events currently unfolding in both Kursk and Pokrovsk are undoubtedly really significant moments in this war.