SNP conference: What else can go wrong for Humza Yousaf?

Humza Yousaf already displays a tiny touch of Panglossian optimism, with his determined smile and his habit of thanking Holyrood critics for raising topics with him which are palpably designed to wound.

However, there are limits. Humza Yousaf knows fine well that he and his party are in difficulties as they prepare for their annual conference in Aberdeen this weekend.

Of the sundry problems confronting him, I think the most recent is perhaps the least salient. That is the intriguing defection of MP Lisa Cameron to the Conservative and Unionist Party.

This would appear to arise from individual issues and not from any wider pattern of trouble for the leadership.

The SNP dealt with this by issuing a bland list of candidates for the forthcoming UK General Election – including her replacement in East Kilbride where she was on the verge of deselection.

In a separate statement, they rebutted all of her complaints – while wishing her well “on a personal basis”. Probably sensible.

Still, scarcely a positive pre-conference note – and, of course, it follows a more substantive challenge in the shape of the big swing to Labour in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.

Little wonder that rival party leaders suggest that the SNP is imploding before our eyes.

I believe that verdict to be decidedly premature – as, frankly, do thoughtful opponents who know the historical capacity of the SNP to unite around their core objective of independence, if that aim is well projected and the party is well led.

The big snag for Mr Yousaf is that there has been substantial dispute within his party as to how to pursue that very aim itself, the target of Scottish independence.

This weekend’s conference in the Granite City – where I used to live and work in my earliest years as a journalist – does not stand alone.

It follows a discourse on independence strategy which was opened with an event in Dundee and followed up by sundry assemblies around Scotland. The party has had its say and will do so again in Aberdeen.

This week, I have spoken to several key figures in the SNP. They brought a blend of disquiet and determination. Yearning for independence but questioning whether there is any obvious, guaranteed route right now.

Indeed, the common theme was that the party had to get back to engaging with the concerns of the voters – such as the economy and the cost of living.

Will the SNP forget independence as a consequence? Of course not. Will they stop cajoling Scots to end the Union? Behave yourself.

But they know – mostly – that they have to end their apparent obsession with the process of constitutional change. The Supreme Court challenge, the de facto referendum idea.

I believe that Mr Yousaf sees this weekend as a pivotal point. A chance to end that focus on process and to revert to delivery at Holyrood – together with a renewed campaign grounded in popular concerns.

But, firstly, they have to bring that process to a close, without infuriating the more zealous delegates or dividing the party still further. The fissures remain evident.

Firstly, discontent in the grass roots. The more restless delegates disdain any caveats about independence as insignificant quibbles. They are impatient for a change whose merits they regard as self-evident.

Secondly, disquiet about Mr Yousaf himself. He has, frankly, yet to prove himself, although it might reasonably be argued that he inherited a challenge which has only grown in succeeding weeks.

Thirdly, unhappiness among the party’s MPs.

To be blunt, some of them feel that the SNP’s problems have been created in Holyrood but that the electorate will wreak revenge at the next possible opportunity, which is a Westminster election.

Nothing concentrates the mind of serving politicians more than the prospect that they might lose their own seats. Especially when they suspect that the blame lies elsewhere.

Tune in to private comments from the SNP Westminster group about their Holyrood counterparts. In some cases, the support falls somewhat short of effusive.

Now, historically, disputes within the SNP between the party in Scotland and their elected tribunes at Westminster are far from unknown. But there is sustained discontent here.

Some point to individual policy problems such as gender recognition or recycling or energy or the marine environment.

Some say the Holyrood leadership needs to settle its strategy on tax and spending. And project that with clarity. Some dislike the Greens.

So where does all that leave the “de facto referendum”, the notion that an SNP victory in Scotland at a UK General Election would, of itself, kickstart independence negotiations?

Gone, I would say, but not entirely forgotten. The main motion, from the leadership, still stresses that a vote for the SNP is a vote for independence. But the concept is that the SNP would be “empowered” by victory to begin independence talks.

Note that word. Empowered, not entitled. An opportunity, not a right. They can certainly ask. They might not get.

And if they don’t get? Enter an amendment from senior MPS urging the devolution of more powers, including employment, energy, visas and the ability to call a referendum. Paradise deferred.

I think the leadership will be content with that and would perhaps also accept a suggestion from Joanna Cherry MP and the SNP trade union group that independence negotiations should be led by a wider Constitutional Convention.

Further, I would not be surprised if the conference ends up agreeing that the trigger for talks should be a majority of seats, not just the most seats. Moves on from the Dundee position.

But SNP strategists know the real challenge is to persuade voters. And that means working hard to address their real worries.

Voltaire’s Candide says: “Il faut cultiver notre jardin.” We must dig our garden. SNP leaders know they need to set aside the soap boxes – and pick up their shovels and trowels.