Neil Mackay: SNP has a week to save itself. Here's what it must do

There’s only one question which needs answered. Does the party turn inward, talking to itself about independence; or does it turn outward, engaging with the electorate’s concerns: the cost of living crisis and the NHS?

For most, that’s a no-brainer. Evidently, the economy and public services should be paramount. But most of us aren’t SNP members. All the discussion within the party ahead of their conference - even in the wake of last week’s by-election defeat - has been about independence.

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Yet it’s not even the benefits of independence that the SNP talks about, it’s the process of getting another referendum or opening negotiations with Westminster.

At least talking up what independence might do for Scotland - providing some vision of what independence means - could, perhaps, inspire some. Debating "road maps" to independence is an exercise in double-jointed navel-gazing. It will inspire nobody.

Worse, if the public perception of the SNP conference is that the party simply talked about independence, then Humza Yousaf’s Government will be seen as not just tone deaf, but wilfully ignoring the fears of voters.

The SNP is on extremely dangerous ground and appears to have not one clue just how deadly matters are, just how fast the clock is ticking.

Perhaps, more worryingly, is the possibility that some within the party may see doubling down on independence as all that’s left in the arsenal: a tacit admission that the SNP can’t cut it in government. In fact, some may even see doubling down on independence as the best means of whipping up so much division that the SNP capitalises on chaos: in other words, a populist route towards remaining relevant.

Let’s try and break this down. First, could the SNP set out a new stall for itself, offering an agenda that addresses the public’s everyday concerns? Well, evidently, the answer is "yes". The party could acknowledge that currently there’s no obvious route to another referendum or to opening negotiations with London, and so "process" will be parked for now.

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Then the leadership could say that in order to have any hope of ever achieving another referendum, the party which stands for independence - the SNP - must be seen to govern so well that a consistent majority in support of a Yes vote is established in Scotland. To do that, the leadership should say, the party must get down to the back-breaking work of forging good policies.

Now, there’s evidently huge risks in such an honest, intelligent position. It opens the door to critics saying "so what have you been doing since 2007?". Humza Yousaf is in a perfect position, though, as a still-"new" First Minister to heap blame on his predecessors. That’s his only path: chuck Nicola Sturgeon under the bus. Blame her for bad government, while saying he’s going to turn the ship around.

Evidently, that risks more party splits: knifing the faction which put him into power, and further alienating the hardline base.

Secondly, you must ask: has the SNP actually the ability to govern well? It’s had years, and bar a few decent policies - like the Child Payment - it consistently messed up pretty much everything it touched.

Thirdly, the SNP doesn’t have the sense to realise that its record in government is awful, or that voters want policies about good public services rather than more endless indy-chatter.

The SNP’s problem is that because the party thinks "it is Scotland", it believes that Scotland thinks like it. Wrong, most people don’t wake up dreaming of independence. They wake up thinking "how do I pay my bills?". And claims that independence offers a land of milk and honey are simply an insult.

So the path to good government looks a hard one for the SNP.

That leaves the strategy of putting independence in pole position, as has always been the case. It’s a ruse which worked until last week, but now the spell seems broken. To continue will be to march towards oblivion.

Certainly, allowing its conference to appear as some esoteric talking-shop where party apparatchiks debate the arcana of "road maps’" will infuriate voters. Nobody - aside from the terminally partisan - cares. This strategy would be "business as usual". Clearly, "business as usual" hasn’t worked. In fact, "business as usual" is going to finish Mr Yousaf’s career unless he gets his act together.

So that leaves turning independence into some populist, almost Brexit-style campaign. The party could decide, that with its days seemingly numbered, it must ramp up grievance, division and animosity. That way the SNP "creates" the national conversation, rather than finding itself dominated by events it has no control over. The party could withdraw MPs from Westminster, threaten to stage its own referendum … go down the Catalan road.

Would that work? Perhaps, though the price paid would be the destruction of what remains of unity within Scotland. The SNP would sacrifice residual cohesion for its own political ends, and still possibly never achieve independence.

So next weekend is make or break. The SNP’s gathering follows the Tory conference - a cavalcade of madness - and this week’s Labour conference, which despite some missteps seems to be a platform for a party ready to govern.

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The SNP has the opportunity to use its conference to prove it’s learned lessons. Mr Yousaf could show that the party which claims to put Scotland first, really will put Scotland first by parking independence campaigning and promising to get down to the business of good government.

He should begin and end the conference saying: "I’ll return to campaigning for a referendum once polls show a consistent majority supporting independence, and that will only happen if I govern well." It may not work. In fact, it probably won’t work: once political support drains away, it’s hard to get back.

So it seems like checkmate for the SNP. However, at least adopting that strategy would allow Mr Yousaf to go down in the history books as someone who tried to do the right thing.