I have a Ring doorbell. And as readers who have submitted to one of these devices will know, the internal chime jingles every time someone approaches the door. My chocolate Labrador, Woody, knows this too, and every time he hears the jingle he jumps out of his bed and runs to the door, in the hope that the key will turn and the entrant will be a potential play-mate.
So excited is Woody at this prospect that he stands too close to the door, and when I turn the key and open the door, it hits him on the head. Every day, the chime jingles. Every day, the door opens. Every day, Woody gets hit on the head. And yet he does it again, and again, and again.
Woody reminds me a lot of the Scottish Conservative Party. He is the party, the jingle is opinion polling, and the door is the electorate.
Read more by Andy Maciver: What Scotland needs now is a Labour/SNP alliance
Last week, we were given another reminder of the role and position of the Scottish Tories. In a much-trailed announcement which has been inevitable since the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election gave the Tories hope that appearing more climate-sceptic might produce short-term political gains at next year’s General Election, Rishi Sunak announced some modifications to the country’s net zero plan, in particular around the phase-out date for the sale of new internal combustion-engined motor cars.
The detail reveals a relatively minimal reversal, but that is not really the point; the broadcast signal being emitted is that the Tories are putting an end to all this woke net zero nonsense and protecting your bank balance, unlike that Labour lot you’re telling pollsters you’re going to vote for.
The Scottish Tories will have learned the news in the papers, like the rest of us, and yet in their political role as the Westminster party’s rebuttal unit in Scotland they immediately mobilised, with Douglas Ross compelled to place himself in front of the nearest camera to tell us all how good an idea this is. It’s hardly the first time.
When I raised this wearisome grind on X/Twitter, I was tackled by one of Mr Ross’s predecessors, Ruth Davidson. Ruth and I have what might be described as a turbulent relationship. I helped to run Murdo Fraser’s campaign to replace the Scottish Tory Party in the leadership election which Ruth won. I have never made a secret of the fact that I think my prescription was correct and, understandably, that has prevented Ruth and I living happily ever after.
However, I do like Ruth, and I am always interested in, and cognisant of, her views. She is a once-in-a-generation asset to the centre-right in Scotland, and her success and her quality demands attention. After all, five years after winning the leadership, she doubled the Tories’ seats at Holyrood and put their vote share up by 50 per cent.
That success buoyed those in the party who thought Murdo and I guilty of heresy. Nonetheless, I must say that although I bought into the Ruth Davidson brand, I remained of the view that the Tory brand had not advanced. I remained of the view that prompted me to start advocating for this solution nearly 20 years ago; that this political party cannot, and will not, take the centre-right to power in Scotland, making us unique in the democratic world.
And I was right. In the combustible post-referendum environment, the 55 per cent who voted No looked for the safest pair of unionist hands to prevent a second referendum and, with Labour gripped by the far-left and weak on the Union, and the Tories active and laser-focused on that constitutional single issue, many Labour voters held their noses and crossed the Tory box.
However, with the prospect of a second independence referendum now mortally wounded, and with a credible, anti-independence Labour Prime Minister-in-waiting, those voters have chosen to end their marriage of convenience with the Tories. The party is now polling back where it was before the days of Ruth Davidson; back to where its core vote always has been, in the mid-to-high teens.
Every day, my Woody tests Einstein’s definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. The Tories will do the same. They will carry on, and they will hold their seats in next year’s General Election. But they will do so on a much reduced vote share which will, as night follows day, lead to a repeat of the debate after the 2026 Scottish Election, which because of its proportional representation is more heavily influenced by vote share.
Another group of politicians are beginning to exhibit the same behaviour as the Scottish Tories - the Scottish National Party. These two parties have always had more in common than either of them would wish to admit. Most obviously, both need the looming prospect of a second independence referendum in order to energise their core vote, and both are delighted when the other focuses on it. Neither has come to terms with the new reality that a second independence referendum is in the long, long grass, and probably dead.
We are now beginning to see a similar pattern of behaviour between the “everything’s fine, there’s nothing to see here” Tories, and those in the SNP who remain emotionally and, to many, inexplicably enslaved to the Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Greens.
Read more by Andy Maciver: In today's bitter times, what would David McLetchie do?
When one speaks privately to them, they will say that the coalition is critical because it makes running the Government, and the parliament, easier. There is no doubting that assertion, or the scarring caused by the intemperate environment at the end of the last Parliament. However, when you then ask them to raise their eyes above the building and list the benefits of the coalition to the SNP, they draw a blank.
And so they should. The Greens have delivered a strategic masterclass. They have won the lottery without having to buy a ticket, and they will almost certainly reap the benefits at the next Holyrood elections, not least through the removal of regional votes from the SNP.
For the SNP, though, this is all pain, with no gain. Many of them see this already. Some of them have begun to ask questions. But others are taking the Scottish Tory approach; there’s nothing to see here.
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