Scottish Labour: Might it all still go wrong?

She said: “The polls are increasingly clear. The age of SNP dominance is over.” The people were turning to Scottish Labour.

Of course, this is not really a soothsayer’s forecast. Rather it is an attempt at a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Scottish Labour’s deputy leader is depicting the SNP as being in trouble. She hopes further that the word “dominance” will connect in the popular mind with Labour’s constructed narrative that the SNP has become arrogant and complacent.

Finally, she hopes that, by positing Labour as a ready alternative, she paints a picture of potential change – which can appear attractive when the voters are as anxious and unsettled as is currently the case.

It is, in short, a strategy to achieve an outcome, not a forecast of what that outcome might be.

Read more by Brian Taylor: Is the SNP imploding – and can Humza Yousaf find a solution?

However, set that aside. It would appear there is a growing level of support for Labour and a concomitant decline for both the Conservatives and the SNP.

The Liberal Democrats and Greens, meanwhile, may be relatively encouraged by their standing. But only relatively. Much to do.

Let us focus for now on Labour. A poll published this week drew intriguing analysis from Sir John Curtice. The psephological expert suggested that Labour might expect to win 22 Westminster seats in Scotland under current boundaries, while the SNP would fall back to 26, with the Tories retaining their six seats despite a slight drop in support and the LibDems gaining one to hold five.

On the one hand, it might be remarked that the SNP would contrive to sustain a lead under that scenario, even in the wake of the huge problems they have faced as a party and devolved government.

The story, however, is also of momentum. A big leap forward for Scottish Labour, perhaps playing a crucial role in securing the keys to Number 10 for Sir Keir Starmer.

A substantial decline for Humza Yousaf, adding to the difficulties he already faces. The pending Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election is hardly likely to ease his woes.

In such circumstances, the sceptical observer is generally inclined to ask: where might it all go wrong for Labour?

To be clear, that is also the question which will be endlessly - and sensibly - posited within Labour circles.

Firstly, there might be a UK Conservative revival. We do not yet know the date of the next UK General Election but autumn next year is a pretty good bet. That gives the Tories more than a year to improve economic prospects and seek to reassure fretful voters.

Enough time? Probably not, given the deep and persisting concerns about the cost of living. Still, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor will endeavour to generate a slow, steady return of confidence.

READ MORE: Will Scots Government be prevented from working towards independence?

Would that in itself be enough? Maybe not. Rishi Sunak has history to bury.

He needs voters to forget about Partygate and Boris Johnson. Each time it resurfaces, for example in the Commons scrutiny of Mr Johnson’s behaviour, the voters lose trust in the Tories.

He also needs the electorate to get over the white knuckle ride that was the Premiership of Liz Truss. Brief yet terrifying.

Aware of this, Labour strives to cause as few upsets to the populace as possible, by minimising anything which might appear radical.

Brexit? Don’t ask, don’t tell. OK, so experts say it has seriously damaged the UK economy, as Ian McConnell noted in a thoughtful Herald piece this week. Voters in England don’t want to hear that – and Labour will comply.

Gender self-ID? UK Labour is moving on. Benefits? Labour will maintain the two child cap and its attendant rape clause despite the contempt heaped on that policy in the past.

To be fair, Sir Keir said during a Scottish visit this week that did not mean abandoning efforts to combat poverty. There would be a definite plan. Scotland would notice an improvement.

But this strategy of placating the populace does not make things particularly easy for the party in Scotland.

Forgive the theatrical reference but, hey, it is Edinburgh Festival time.

There is an outstanding production by Dundee Rep at the Traverse, entitled the Grand Old Opera House Hotel. The spooky residence in question is named the Scomodo Hotel. On inquiry, I learned that means “uncomfortable”.

Anas Sarwar and Jackie Baillie have been left somewhat “scomodo” by their UK leader’s pronouncements. Which do not sit easily in Scotland where politics defaults more to the Left and the big enemy for them is the SNP.

Still, Mr Sarwar is a serious and sanguine political leader. He knows what his UK leader needs to do. He is ready to play his part, while voicing the hope that action on such issues as the two child cap might follow reasonably swiftly.

For now, Mr Sarwar pursues his policy of triangulation. Blame both the UK and Scottish Governments. Blame the Tories, primarily, for the economy and the SNP, primarily, for health service problems.

But might SNP fortunes revive? They might indeed although they are partly dependent on external factors such as the police inquiry into party finances.

They might revive if the party can rebuild internal unity and develop a coherent, realistic strategy for pursuing the objective of independence.

Plus they might revive under one other set of circumstances. Say Labour wins UK power, either alone or in partnership with the LibDems.

It has long been assumed that a Labour Westminster victory would lessen the pressure for independence.

Maybe such would indeed be the case. But say Sir Keir struggles in Downing Street. Say the economy does not swiftly revive.

Is it possible that, in such circumstances, voters in Scotland might return to the SNP – and even perhaps to independence?

I know, I know, too many hypotheticals. Right now, things are looking pretty good for Labour, north and south of the Border.

But these are troubled times. Scomodo is the watchword.