Is the SNP imploding – and can Humza Yousaf find a solution?

Quirky, perhaps, if he is displaying studied calm. After all, this is the political leader who underplayed the first arrest in the SNP finance investigation as “a difficult day”.

Exasperating, maybe. Infuriating, almost certainly. But silly? No, this season has now gone way beyond silly for the SNP.

And for Humza Yousaf. The voting guru, Professor Sir John Curtice, has traced the SNP’s decline back to the leadership contest – and the ascent of Mr Yousaf.

Read more by Brian Taylor: Will Scots Government be prevented from working towards independence?

To cap it all, we now have the expulsion from the SNP of Angus MacNeil. The experienced MP for Na h-Eileanan an Iar was initially suspended from the SNP’s Westminster group last month after apparently clashing with the party’s Chief Whip, Brendan O’Hara.

Whips in all political parties like to maintain order and control. They are no use to the leadership otherwise.

Usually, such disputes end in bogus camaraderie or grudging tolerance. Not this time.

Seemingly, Mr MacNeil refused to rejoin the Westminster group. A rule breach resulting in expulsion from the party.

His response? “I didn’t leave the SNP – the SNP have left me. I wish they were as bothered about independence as they are about me.”

These are highly significant remarks. They speak to a more fundamental breach in party relations, not just a passing row.

In the past, Mr MacNeil has delivered outspoken comments about party strategy, particularly with regard to the pursuit of independence.

Indeed, I recall interviewing Nicola Sturgeon, then leader, ahead of an SNP conference. Mr MacNeil had just delivered one of his critiques, voicing concern about the path being followed by the party.

As I remember, Ms Sturgeon summoned a faintly acerbic smile and noted drily that she was the leader of the party, not her Hebridean critic.

Angus MacNeil (Image: PA)

So this has been coming. If it were a solitary incident, then it could perhaps be shrugged off by the party leadership.

“You know Angus Brendan, he’s a character, isn’t he?” That sort of thing. But it is very far from a solitary incident.

There is now a substantial, if variegated, body of discontent surrounding Ms Sturgeon’s successor. Indeed, I was already planning to write about SNP turmoil this week. The expulsion confirmed my intention.

Firstly, of course, there is that continuing police inquiry into SNP funds. Mr Yousaf can do no more than await the outcome, however enervating that may be.

Competing theories abound. Only this week, one senior Nationalist told me they were expecting the worst. Another, equally senior, offered the opinion that nothing would emerge, that it was an expensive waste of time.

In truth, nobody knows. However, even prior to the outcome, this has been a grim experience for the party. Those police searches, the tents – not a good look.

Then there is the by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West. Canvassing is well under way with voters subjected to claim and counter-claim, sheltering from the cross-fire between the sundry parties, most notably the SNP and Labour.

Read more by Brian Taylor: Why Humza Yousaf shouldn't look at the Rutherglen vote with despair

Again, if that were all, then Humza Yousaf could afford to smile, bravely. OK, his party might lose Rutherglen, especially as the origins of the contest lie in a Covid breach by an MP elected in SNP colours.

But parties have lost by-elections before and gone on to thrive in bigger battles.

However, there is more. There are fundamental disagreements within the party over policy and strategy. These disputes were substantially sharpened by the bitter leadership contest which followed Ms Sturgeon’s resignation.

There is still a degree of disquiet over gender recognition reform – and over how to handle the UK Government’s veto.

For a significant minority, this is a crucial issue. I mean no disrespect whatsoever when I add that it is not perhaps particularly germane for the bulk of the electorate.

For that majority, attitudes towards the SNP are unlikely to be swayed. Nevertheless, it is a divisive topic.

Then there is the economy. There is a healthy but complex discourse within Scotland as a whole over how best to generate wealth – and indeed whether that is a worthwhile exercise.

Should we pursue enhanced public spending? Or tax-cutting incentives? Kate Forbes lost the leadership contest – but drove a substantive argument about the need to support and stimulate business.

Which brings us to the pact with the Greens. There is lingering disquiet in SNP ranks, again partly prompted by those who back Ms Forbes’ views on the economy.
I do not see Humza Yousaf granting the request for a new vote on the pact within the SNP at this point. But he will make much clearer where he dissents from the Green perspective.

Finally, there is independence strategy. The primary concern voiced by Mr MacNeil.

It is couched as a discourse about tactics: whether, for example, to make the next election a de facto referendum.

In truth, the disquiet arises from sheer frustration. The more fervent Nationalists cannot understand why independence is not universally viewed as a self-evident gain for Scotland.

I thought of all this when I attended an Edinburgh Fringe production this week at the Lyceum, entitled Help I think I’m a Nationalist.

Not the Scottish variety. No, Cornish. The performance traces the linguistic and cultural roots of Cornish identity while also satirising behaviour that can, in the actor’s words, “go too far”.

Offstage, the writer and performer, Seamas Carey, told me that the Cornish debate leaned heavily upon Scotland. He said Cornwall was perhaps “twenty years behind Wales and forty years behind Scotland.”

It reminded me that the foundations of the SNP – and indeed the broader self-government debate – lie not in partisan politics but in a sense of Scottish identity. With a contemporary, inclusive approach.

Which is the real challenge for Humza Yousaf’s leadership in these troubled times. Can he persuade the people of Scotland that independence is their destiny – and that the SNP offers the route map?