Under the dark UK economic storm clouds, amid the misery of high inflation and surging interest rates, there was some further significant uplifting news about Scotland’s attractiveness and advantages this week.
This good news might come as a surprise and even in some cases an annoyance to the doomsayers on Scotland, who are often politically motivated.
The cheer came in a new quarterly survey from accountancy firm KPMG and the University of Nottingham published on Wednesday.
Around 37% of local areas in Scotland are identified as “highly investable” in the study, a much greater proportion than the 22% figure across Great Britain.
The survey uses artificial intelligence technologies to pinpoint what is influencing economic activity across the regions and devolved nations of Great Britain.
It shows Scotland’s central belt is experiencing above-average levels of research and innovation and business investment in the context of Great Britain as a whole. The study also flags high levels of investment across the Highlands.
The west of Scotland is experiencing above-average productivity growth relative to Great Britain as a whole, the research shows.
These upbeat findings might not chime with the narrative generated by some about what Scotland is like as a place to do business.
However, that does not make them in any way less valid. And the findings crucially come from thorough research, as opposed to personal opinions from the likes of politicians who at times seem like the proverbial squeaky wheels.
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The KPMG and University of Nottingham study draws on proprietary and open-sourced data, such as levels of productivity (measured by gross value-added) per job filled, research and development expenditure by firms, venture capital investment, new business creation, household credit scores and online job advertisements.
The authors of the study note this is combined with several sources of "expectational" data, including from Europe’s largest work-from-home survey, which tracks employer and employee expectations on local working arrangements, and a major survey of business leaders’ expectations of investment, sales and employment growth in forthcoming quarters.
The leading growth centres for research and innovation are spread across Great Britain, the study finds. Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, and Manchester are showing the highest rates of growth in research and development spending and venture capital investment, it notes.
Wales, northern England, Scotland, East Anglia and north-east England are experiencing the fastest rates of new business creation, according to the survey. Dundee, Angus, East Ayrshire, and the Borders are enjoying the fastest rates of new business creation within Scotland.
In terms of investment in digital and remote working, the Highlands, North Ayrshire, Inverclyde and Clackmannanshire all score highly.
The study examines 363 areas across Scotland, England and Wales.
The 37% of local areas across Scotland identified as "high investment areas" are, in the words of the survey's compilers, "places which share an expected high rate of growth in business investment".
This is surely a good thing. And having a relatively high number of areas in this position is great for Scotland.
However, it might be inconvenient for those who would talk Scotland down, for whatever reason they might do this.
The KPMG and University of Nottingham survey is the latest in a series of good news about Scotland’s attractiveness as a place for investment.
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A survey published by accountancy firm EY back in June revealed Scotland secured record levels of inward investment in 2022.
A record 126 foreign direct investment projects were won by Scotland last year, up from 122 in 2021, maintaining the nation’s position as the top UK location for FDI outside London, the EY survey showed.
The 3.3% rise in the number of projects secured by Scotland was in stark contrast to a 6.4% drop in the UK as a whole. UK-wide, the number of FDI projects attracted dropped from 993 to 929.
Scotland had achieved a 14% jump in the number of inward investment projects secured in 2021, way ahead of a 1.8% increase for the UK as a whole.
The confidence being shown in Scotland by inward investors, amid the UK’s economic tumult, is surely good news indeed for anyone who wants to see the nation prosper, regardless of any political views of whatever sort.
Separate figures from FDI and trade promotion agency Scottish Development International, also published in June, showed inward investment projects won in the year to March 31, 2023, are expected to create or safeguard 8,533 jobs. This is up 9% on the prior 12 months and the highest jobs number since the 2018/19 financial year.
More than 99% of the jobs - 8,519 in total – feature pay above the real living wage, defined as an annual salary of at least £19,305 based on a 37.5-hour week.
The figures combine FDI projects supported by SDI, Scottish Enterprise, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, South of Scotland Enterprise and Skills Development Scotland, with the jobs figures based on the plans of the companies investing.
Twenty different local authorities in Scotland supported inward investment project wins in the 12 months to March 31 this year, according to the SDI figures.
The strong inward investment reports from EY and SDI are no flashes in the pan.
Scotland has been doing consistently well on the inward investment front for many years.
The decisions of overseas investors on where to locate are based on cold, objective analysis.
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Among key considerations is the availability of a workforce with the skills required. And we should perhaps take heart from the clear implication from the nation’s inward investment success that the Scottish education system, while not perfect, must be performing a great deal better than some might like us to think. Much of the decision-making will be around the graduates being delivered by universities but the seeds of this success are planted in primary and secondary schools.
The narrative around Scotland’s economy seems far too often to be frenzied.
Objectivity is in short supply among Scottish politicians in our goldfish bowl.
So, when objectivity comes along in the form of hard numbers such as those on inward investment or in the shape of research on how Scotland is faring in a broader Great British or UK context, we should pay it heed.
And where this is good news, everyone with an interest in Scotland’s prosperity, whatever their political or constitutional persuasion, should embrace it and even where appropriate make some noise about it. It is demoralising when points of brightness draw the equivalent of growling noises from Scotland’s detractors.
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