This article is part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.

The Scottish Government has been forced into yet another screeching U-turn – with the party now threatening Keir Starmer’s high bar for changing his mind.

The decision to scrap the Highly Protected Marine Areas (HPMAs) and go back to the drawing board came on the last day before Holyrood breaks for the summer, giving the impression it has been sneaked out.

SNP Net Zero Secretary Mairi McAllan insisted that the problem was all about timing.

It remains unclear whether that timing is the 2026 initial timeframe for HPMAs or the impending Westminster general election, with several coastal and island SNP MPs facing a battle to keep hold of their jobs.

In the current political landscape, SNP island and coastal MPs will not fancy their chances at the next general election.

Skye MP and former Westminster SNP leader, Ian Blackford, is standing down, while outspoken Western Isles MP Angus MacNeil faces a tough fight for his seat with Labour’s Torcuil Crichton.

In other rural parts of Scotland too, the SNP could be undone at the ballot box, with polls now consistently showing Humza Yousaf’s party could be in for a difficult election across the board.

There are several big issues and policies that have upset rural and coastal communities – the dreaded ferries scandal and the U-turn to dual the A9 have become a sore bone of contention away from Holyrood.

Kicking the can down the road with the latest policy to upset those communities, is not a stupid idea politically – it could be reset and watered down with a 2030 target date.

Ms McAllan pointed to the Scottish Government committing to “develop a new pathway and timetable” for the plans, highlighting her “draft biodiversity strategy ambition for Scotland to be nature-positive by 2030”.

She also highlighted “that the EU has set the target for enhanced marine protection in at least 10% of its sea by 2030”.

But 2030 is looking like an uncomfortable year for the Scottish Government’s climate ambition.

The legally-binding greenhouse gas emissions target to reduce 1990 levels of pollution by 75% looks almost impossible to achieve, key waste aims look set to flop and who knows whether the country will have a deposit return scheme rolled out by then – with the policy now seemingly led by the UK Government.

Ms McAllan pointed to the “constructive engagement” with the Scottish Greens for her whopping great U-turn.

The Herald:

This is the first big policy included in the agreement between the Scottish Government and Scottish Greens to be ditched – and could suggest a power shift in the co-operation deal between the two pro-independence governing parties.

The Scottish Greens are putting on a brave face with one insider suggesting that “having better marine protections is very much alive and well”, adding that “the whole point of a consultation is to arrive at the best way of achieving it”.

The decision also undermined the criticism (often from within the SNP), that the “Green tail is wagging the yellow dog”.

Former SNP cabinet secretary Fergus Ewing, for instance, has never hidden his fury that the anti-capitalist Greens wield so much power with just seven MPs to the SNP’s 64. 

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Unlike other recent U-turns, this one was based on a key part of the Bute House Agreement (BHA) underpinning the SNP-Green joint government.

The deposit return recycling scheme may have been associated with Green minister Lorna Slater, but it predated that deal.

Going “back to the drawing board” on banning alcohol advertising was also outside the BHA. 

But the marine protection plan occupies more than three pages of the 50-page document.

So unpicking it should have been a major drama for the government, right? No.

There are several reasons for this.

One, the Greens, despite the labels their opponents like to hang on them, have always been pragmatic about extracting results from the government machine.

In the last parliament, they were almost the only party to work with the SNP on budgets.

Two, although the proposal for 10% of Scottish waters to be HPMAs by 2026 has been dropped, the planned outcome remains for enhanced marine protection in some form.

In the short term, that means more community-led protection zones like Lamlash Bay off Arran, rather than centrally-set targets imposed from above.

And third, the Greens are desperate to stay in power. 

If they have to...

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