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A few months ago SNP president Michael Russell declared that his party was facing the biggest crisis in 50 years and he did not think "Scottish independence can be secured right now".

Mr Russell made the frank admissions in an interview with Kevin McKenna for The Herald which took place days after the arrest of Nicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell, the SNP's former chief executive, and the search of the couple's home and SNP headquarters as part of a long-running police investigation into SNP finances.

Since then Ms Sturgeon has herself been arrested as has the party's former treasurer Colin Beattie. All three people were released without charge pending further inquiries as the probe continues.

To any observer the arrest and police questioning of Ms Sturgeon – who has repeatedly said she is "innocent of any wrongdoing" – has deepened the party's crisis.

This is the grim context in which Ms Sturgeon's successor as SNP leader and First Minister Humza Yousaf on Saturday in Dundee launched a new bid to achieve independence.

Addressing the party faithful for the first time since his election in March to the top job, Mr Yousaf said a win for the SNP in Scotland at the next general election would be "a mandate for independence".

As timing is widely taken to be critical in political campaigning, launching a new drive for independence when major figures in the party behind it are at the centre of a police investigation is far from optimal.

But is the new campaign really about achieving independence?

Some are sceptical and suspect that Mr Yousaf’s strategy is less to do with delivering independence and more to do about limiting damage to the SNP – and hence keeping his own job as party leader and first minister – after the general election expected next year.

For a start, people ask, why would Rishi Sunak, if re-elected to Number 10 or Keir Starmer, if elected as Labour Prime Minister, decide to grant a referendum to a Humza Yousaf led Scottish Government when they didn't to a Nicola Sturgeon led one?

Even some SNP grassroots members don't really believe that a new UK Government would be in any mood to change its mind on granting indyref2 after the next general election.

And keep in mind the shifts taking place in Scotland's political landscape.

A series of polls – the most dramatic of which was carried out by Panelbase for the Sunday Times earlier this month – has shown that while level of support for independence has remained steady at over 45% or so, support for the SNP has slipped.

Unspun | Analysis: Will Humza Yousaf manage to tie independence and EU causes together?

Significantly the surveys have indicated that the fall in SNP backing is down to some of its voters switching to Labour who are campaigning on the promise of ousting the Tories from power at Westminster.

This group of voters prepared to switch to Labour still support independence and are still anti-Brexit but for them Keir Starmer's pledge to end what will be 14 years of Conservative government come the election has more of an immediate appeal than a distant ideal of an independent Scotland back in the European Union. They have weighed up two wishes – independence back in the EU and getting rid of the Tories – and plumped for the former as being the more realistic and desirable option for now.

Mr Yousaf's hope is that by making the SNP's general election campaign about independence in Europe – note his visit to Brussels this week – the party can tempt some of its soft Yes remainers back, stop others from deserting and hence hold onto a majority of Scottish seats in 2024.

The Herald:

He can then present to his party any significant loss of SNP seats – the key number to keep would be 29 – as a triumph in the most difficult of circumstances and still lay claim to the SNP leadership.

The difficulty for the First Minister is that there's no guarantee the SNP will end up as the party with the most MPs north of the Border.

Last week's Panelbase poll put the SNP on course to win 21 seats at the general election with a resurgent Labour forecast to take 26.

Of course, that survey is the only one yet to put Labour ahead and was conducted in the period following Ms Sturgeon's arrest. But the fear for the first minister and the SNP is whether amid the party's continuing woes it will be the first of others showing similar voting intentions.

Worryingly too for Mr Yousaf was his low personal approval among voters in the Panelbase poll. He received a score of minus 12, well above Douglas Ross's minus 34, but below Anas Sarwar's minus two, and also far below that of his rival in the SNP leadership contest, Kate Forbes, who returned the only positive rating of plus three.

Not long after the end of the SNP leadership contest there were murmurings inside the party of just how long Mr Yousaf would last as leader and first minister and whether he would be the politician to lead the party into the next Holyrood election in 2026. It's likely these whispers will only get louder in the months ahead as the clock ticks towards next year's general election.

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