Scottish independence: 'Humza Yousaf plan deeply confused'

Mr Yousaf told his party’s special convention on Saturday in Dundee on Saturday that he would regard victory at the election as a mandate for independence.

The first minister said he would seek negotiations with London on either a second referendum or moving straight to independence talks if the SNP returned a majority of Scotland’s MPs.  

He said the approach differed from previous elections in which the SNP said a win would mean a “cast-iron” or “triple-lock” mandate, as it was more direct and explicit.

READ MORE: Humza Yousaf appears to admit his day-old Indy plan won't work

However, there appeared to be some confusion among SNP MPs over what Mr Yousaf meant in his speech and whether the policy was a re-iteration of the plan put forward by the previous first minister Nicola Sturgeon for a de facto referendum or if that strategy had been ditched.

She had set the threshold for a win and opening independence talks with the UK Government at the SNP and other pro independence parties winning more than 50% of votes.

“De facto it is. Fantastic,” tweeted Pete Wishart, the SNP's longest serving MP after Mr Yousaf's address. “If the Scottish people vote for the SNP at the next election that means we have voted for independence.”

In an attempt to clarify the strategy to journalists after his speech, Mr Yousaf said: “A vote for the SNP is a vote for Scotland to become independent. If we win that general election, then we will of course take that mandate to negotiate with the UK government how we put that into democratic effect.

“That’ll be a discussion with the UK government. Of course, just remember our plan A still remains that referendum. It’s been denied, of course, as we know, by the UK government.”

READ MORE: Humza Yousaf's Indy plan thrown into confusion by SNP MP Pete Wishart

Writing on the Sceptical Scot website, Professor Mitchell, who was among the first experts to be critical of Ms Sturgeon's plan to use the next general election as a de facto independence referendum, said the speech “was an artless effort to have his cake and eat it”.

He said the SNP had “not only lost momentum but is fast losing its reputation for governing competence”, while its ongoing internal problems “are hardly a great advert for a party trying to convince the public it believes in accountable and responsible government”.

He added: “Putting all that to one side, the SNP leader’s message was still deeply confused. The SNP ‘will absolutely fight the next election with independence front and centre of our campaign’. The first line in its manifesto next year will declare: ‘Vote SNP for Scotland to become an independent Scotland’. This seems, at first sight, a rehash of Sturgeon’s de facto referendum. But he then went on to say that ‘If we win the general election, we will take that mandate from the people and ensure we as a government are ready to negotiate our independence’ in comments steeped in ambiguity and incoherence.”

Professor Mitchell said the SNP “still lacks coherent, consistent and convincing answers on currency, the economy, borders and, crucially, how it will deliver the healthy, wealthy Scotland that all want”.

He said the party faces three challenges: getting its own house in order; regaining a reputation for governing competence; and offering clear, consistent and convincing answers on key issues around the process and transition to independence.

Mr Yousaf old the BBC’s Sunday Show that the election would be “tough”, but he was “confident” the SNP can win. He said: “I’m not saying to you if we win that general election Scotland suddenly becomes independent. What I’m saying to you is that through a democratic, lawful means, we begin negotiation with the UK Government on how to give that proposition democratic effect.”

Polling published last week by Panelbase suggested the SNP will take 21 of the 59 Scottish seats at the next election, down from the 48 it won in 2019, while Scottish Labour were on course to win 26 seats, meaning the SNP could fall short of the majority sought by Mr Yousaf.

Even if the party does win the most seats in Scotland, it is not clear why Mr Yousaf’s strategy would persuade the UK Government to enter into negotiations when its previous election victories have been ignored in the past. Any sign of falling support would also make it easier for Westminster to ignore a request for a second referendum.

During his BBC interview, Mr Yousaf appeared to admit that only growing support would shift the dial on independence, a stance he underlined during the SNP leadership contest.

Asked how he thought Westminster would respond to his referendum call, he said: “I'm under no illusion that Westminster will continue and does continue to deny us, and that's why of course the core of my speech to the activists was what we must never stop doing, what we are working on doing day-in and day-out, and week-in and week-out, is growing the popular support for independence. It is the power of the people that will break Westminster's intransigence.”

However, he said a general election win “doesn’t just give us a mandate to seek negotiations with the UK Government”, adding: “It actually gives us a mandate to get on ourselves as a Scottish Government to lay the foundations of a newly independent state, and we’ll do that through a number of different ways – for example, a draft legal text on the withdrawal agreement, the drafting of an interim constitution, the creation of a special envoy to Brussels.”

He said it will be “absolutely abundantly clear to people – if they’re voting for the SNP, they are voting for Scotland to become an independent country, to support that proposition".

Mr Yousaf said the SNP will push for a referendum to be held as soon as possible after the general election.