Scotland is absolutely vital to Labour’s 2024 election hopes

Tory HQ’s version of Baldrick’s cunning plan was to overstate the expected scale of Conservative council seat losses, so when the number came in below expectations, it could claim some sort of victory.

But the strategy backfired because the losses were even more than 1,000, which meant Labour could mock the Tory strategists for having exceeded their “target”.

What made Sir Keir Starmer so chuffed about the council results was the spread of Labour’s successes.

It took control of key areas needed to win the General Election to secure victory, such as Dover, Plymouth and Swindon, and, significantly, made gains in red-wall seats across Northern England and the Midlands. Indeed, some of the comrades’ best performances were in Brexit strongholds.

Once the picture of the Tory rout became clear, the Labour leader declared confidently: “Make no mistake, we are on course for a Labour majority at the next General Election."

His Shadow Cabinet colleague Peter Kyle insisted the results showed Labour would “win outright,” noting: “All the extrapolations people are making from the local elections include a status quo in Scotland; we know the status quo in Scotland isn't going to be the result that comes out in a general election.”

Counting your chickens is never smart.

In May 2019, the Conservatives got whacked in England’s council elections, losing 1,330 councillors and control of 44 councils on a 34% turnout. Seven months later at the General Election Boris Johnson led them to an 80-seat Commons majority on a 67% UK-wide turnout. So, extrapolation from one poll to another can be a risky exercise.

By the time Sir Keir was thanking party workers, his jubilant tone had mollified. “Let’s never mistake confidence for complacency.”

Previously, he has stressed how Scotland will be crucial to a Labour victory at the 2024 ballot. However, England’s council results suggest it will be more than that; it will be key to securing Labour a Commons majority.

Quickly recognising the significance of the numbers beyond the border, Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, said: “It’s increasingly clear the SNP can hold the balance of power after the next General Election, putting Scotland in prime position to pull the strings of a minority UK government.” He wishes.

Read more by Michael Settle: Showing Corbyn the door is Starmer's big Blairite gamble

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The Scottish Tories have already resurrected the ghost of elections past, accusing the Nationalists of hoping for a “sleekit backroom deal” with Labour to secure Indyref2.

But I suspect Project Fear won’t work this time. On the back of this week’s council results and previous by-election wins for the Lib Dems, Sir Keir is more likely to rely on their support in a minority government as they could well be returned as the third largest party, displacing the embattled SNP from that role.

Analysing the local results, the BBC calculated a national vote share, giving Labour 35%, the Tories 26% and the Lib Dems 20%.

Despite Labour claiming this nine-point lead would secure it a majority government, analysts believe it wouldn’t, because it needs a margin of 10%-plus to achieve this.

And yet. This week’s elections didn’t include Scotland, Wales or London, which, if they had, could well have pushed Labour’s lead into that double-digit territory. This explains Sir Keir’s glee.

The council results also make the potential forthcoming Rutherglen by-election all the more interesting as a Scottish bellwether of what might happen in 2024.

Tending to their bruises, some Conservatives claimed Labour and the Lib Dems did so well because many Tory supporters stayed home. There may be an element of truth to this and also in how some people use local elections as a protest vote against the governing party.

It seems clear to me the Tory losses were not so much as a result of voters using this week’s poll as a referendum on Rishi Sunak and his government but, rather, as a judgement on the maladministrations of his two predecessors, Mr Johnson and Liz Truss.

Read more by Michael Settle: Is it really mission impossible or can Sunak lead Tories to victory?

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What’s worrying for the PM is the Tory Right don’t believe this and it has already suggested Thursday’s calamity is down squarely to Mr Sunak and he should “own” it.

David Campbell Bannerman, the ex-Conservative MEP, who wants Mr Johnson back in Number 10, branded the PM “robotic” and “a John Major 2”.

Boris Johnson

Next week, the Johnsonite Conservative Democratic Organisation will hold a conference in Bournemouth attended by leading supporters of the former PM, including ex-Cabinet ministers Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and Priti Patel. Mr Johnson himself isn’t expected to be there.

While a bid to oust Mr Sunak is unlikely, there will certainly be Johnsonite pressure to pursue a more right-wing agenda.

One Cabinet minister told The Times: “Steady as he goes won’t cut it. We don’t have a clear offer at the moment. People are saying their taxes are going up, their grown-up kids are living at home with them and waiting lists are getting longer. Rishi needs to take some risks, he needs to step it up a gear.”

So, it seems, in the long run-in to the next election, the PM will be fighting on two fronts, which, as history shows, usually ends only one way: in defeat.

As the battle for Britain’s future increasingly focuses on political events in Scotland, it might be the circumstances following Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation - which have been so negative for the SNP - could not only help boost Labour’s number of Scottish MPs but also ensure Sir Keir gets his desired Commons majority.

And in doing so push back even further any prospect of Scottish independence. Now that would be ironic.