SCOTLAND’S leading pollster has warned Labour’s support of Brexit could prevent the party from a big resurgence following the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon.
Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, has suggested that Anas Sarwar’s party could potentially “chip away at the edges” of the SNP’s support but was unlikely to make huge gains.
The polling expert also said that the Yes campaign will need to focus on getting support above 50 per cent for independence before worrying about alternatives to a de facto referendum.
Read more: Labour just two points behind SNP ahead of Nicola Sturgeon resignation
Following Ms Sturgeon’s announcement on Wednesday, some Labour sources had suggested that the party could enjoy a huge boost with the SNP under a new leadership.
But Professor Curtice has rubbished the assumption.
Speaking to The Herald, he said: “If any party is going to profit from the SNP, it is quite clear it would be Labour. Whether they can do more than chip at the edges, that is much more difficult.”
But Mr Curtice has warned that the party will “require two different strategies” to appeal to Brexit supporters in the north of England and those who want to rejoin the EU in Scotland.
He said: “Labour will find it quite difficult to persuade Yes voters, the majority of which wish to be back inside the EU, to vote for a party that has no intention of rejoining the European Union.
“They have decided to go for the red wall in the north of England, but not the one in Scotland.”
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He added that “Labour is the one party that bridges the constitutional divide” but warned there was “always a risk of being gobbled up on both sides”.
Professor Curtice added: “The politics of Scotland are so heavily polarised – we have Northern Ireland politics.
“All of our elections are already de facto referendums”.
Asked whether Ms Sturgeon’s decision to stand down will impact support for the Yes campaign, Professor Curtice warned it depends who takes over.
He said: “The problem with Sturgeon’s strategy is that it only works as long as you have more than 50% of support. They di not have 50% of support. So what they need to do first is get the numbers up.
“We do not know what the alternative is.”
Read more: Independence stalemate hands Sturgeon's successor a poisoned chalice
Professor Curtice added: “What we do know is that in the second half of 2020 and early 2021, support for independence was above 50%.
“Sturgeon’s perceived handling of the pandemic and the difference with Johnson’s handling of it pushed that. But that’s all gone.”
Political strategist and former Scottish Conservative media chief, Andy Maciver, suggested that the long-term strategy to vote SNP and get Indyref2 has been “killed” by the Scottish Government losing its Supreme Court bid for Holyrood to hold its own referendum.
But Mr Maciver said the Conservatives will struggle to reap any benefits from Ms Sturgeon’s resignation.
He said: “In 2014, from Alex Salmond quit, I remember the Conservatives saying ‘that is it’, the independence movement is finished and that no-one could get the support that he did.
“That has now been erased from history.
“The SNP are so far ahead in the polls I think they could stand almost anybody as leader and still win the next election.”
He added that the Tories are “emotionally unable to alter their constitutional position” to attract support from the centre, stressing that they are a “devo-sceptical party”.
But Mr Maciver said he would “not rule out Anas Sarwar winning the 2026 election”, but it would require doing “something radical”.
He added Labour “need to go for the jugular”.
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