THE UK will be the only major economy to plunge into recession the year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned – with the finger pointed at the “economic self-harm of Brexit” on the three year anniversary of Britain leaving the EU.
The IMF has predicted that the UK economy will contract by 0.6 per cent in 2023 against the 0.3% growth it pencilled in last October in yet another major downgrade.
In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF upped its growth outlook for the global economy, but cautioned that Britain looks set to suffer more than most from soaring inflation and higher interest rates.
The grim outlook for the year ahead puts the UK far behind its counterparts in the G7 group of advanced nations and the only country, across advanced and major emerging economies, expected by the IMF to suffer a year of declining GDP.
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Even Russia, which is under pressure from a raft of sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, is predicted by the group to eke out growth of 0.3%.
Labour’s Rachel Reeves said the IMF forecast showed the UK was “at the bottom of the league table for growth” for both this year and the next.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt stressed many forecasts were overly-pessimistic about the UK economy last year.
“Short-term challenges should not obscure our long-term prospects, the UK outperformed many forecasts last year, and if we stick to our plan to halve inflation, the UK is still predicted to grow faster than Germany and Japan over the coming years,” he said.
But the SNP has pointed the blame for the UK bucking the global trend on Brexit.
SNP’s economy spokesperson, Stewart Hosie, said: “Britain is sinking as a perfect storm of Tory economic incompetence and a disastrous Brexit is causing the UK economy to go into freefall.
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“Every developed country is set to grow this year, but the difference being that none of those countries have inflicted the economic self-harm of Brexit on themselves and Scotland has had to suffer the consequences despite overwhelmingly rejecting leaving the EU.
“Even Russia, which is being rightly heavily-sanctioned for its invasion of Ukraine, is predicted to grow its economy this year. That is just how far broken Brexit Britain has fallen, and it is only going to get worse because of the economic incompetence of this UK Government.”
The accusation came on the three-year anniversary of Brexit.
Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank, said: “There are a few things which are affecting us more than other countries; one in particular actually is the loss of people from our labour force.
“We’ve heard quite a lot about the fact that we’ve lost 500,000-plus people from work, people retiring early, immigrants not coming in from the European Union and so on. That’s not affecting any other country in Europe.”
The “continuing challenges from Brexit” and the higher interest rates were also issues, the economist added.
The Greens’s Maggie Chapman added that the “UK Government can no longer hide behind a pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine or other ‘global’ excuses when we see the rest of the world is outperforming our stuttering economy on their watch”.
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Among the other G7 nations, the IMF’s 2023 GDP predictions show growth of 1.4% in the United States, 0.1% in Germany, 0.7% in France, 0.6% in Italy, 1.8% in Japan and 1.5% in Canada.
It comes against a backdrop of public sector strikes over pay and predictions that the UK is heading for a recession, with inflation still standing at more than 10%.
The IMF said Britain’s predicted GDP fall reflects “tighter fiscal and monetary policies and financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets”.
It follows efforts by Mr Hunt last week to talk up the UK economy and its growth prospects in his first major speech in the post, declaring that “declinism about Britain was wrong in the past and it is wrong today”.
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