LABOUR is clearly on a long-overdue recovery – but the party’s wishy-washy stance on Brexit could cost it in Scotland, potentially putting at risk its chance to form the next UK Government.
Polling consistently shows Sir Keir Starmer’s party holds significantly more support with the UK public than the Conservatives. That surge is likely down to the self-inflicted chaos at Westminster for the Tories.
But by and large, Keir Starmer’s party is on track to form the next government, if consistent polling is to be believed.
READ MORE: Anas Sarwar told to cut ties with Keir Starmer's Brexit support
In Scotland, fortunes are also changing for Anas Sarwar’s party. Despite a low starting point, Scottish Labour edged out the Tories into second place in last year’s local elections and polling is again showing the party holds second place with the public.
Labour’s lacklustre footing in Scotland over the last decade can be put down to a number of things – ineffective leadership being one. That appears to be a relic of the past.
But the party’s constitutional position over independence clearly damaged the party’s image with the public.
In one fell swoop by going in with the Tories in 2014 to fight the joint Better Together campaign, Labour managed to alienate traditional voters who were open to independence as well as those party activists who hated the idea of working with the Conservatives.
READ MORE: Starmer: People backed independence to take 'control over their lives'
Now the biggest barrier to Labour picking up crucial MPs in Scotland at the next UK election is another constitutional wrangle.
Sir Keir has made clear a Labour Party under him will not reverse the Brexit decision he campaigned vehemently against as Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow Brexit secretary.
This move is an obvious one.
It is to try and plead with lapsed Labour voters in the north of England who backed Brexit to put their trust in him.
The “red wall” falling in 2019 was seen as the key to Boris Johnson’s election success – delivering Brexit was his key message to voters.
Mr Sarwar, to his credit, has openly warned his UK party that “Scotland was the first red wall to fall”.
READ MORE: Scottish and UK governments clash over £300m levelling up 'shortfall'
In Scotland, almost two-thirds of voters voted for the UK to Remain in the European Union. Many of those who oppose Brexit in Scotland will be traditional Labour voters looking for a reason to turn back to Sir Keir’s party.
Being seen in lockstep with the Tories over Brexit will do little to see the party return more than the solitary Scottish MP it has in the House of Commons.
There are other key issues that it would take some probing to find a difference between Labour and the Tories – immigration for one – all in aid of wooing disaffected voters in the north of England.
That strategy could have stark consequences for Scottish Labour.
No matter how far ahead Labour is in the UK-wide polls, it would be bold to bet on the party returning a majority in the House of Commons without a boost in the number of MPs north of the Border.
So by placing his trust in Brexit-backing voters in the north of England flooding back to the party, Sir Keir risks undermining any recovery by Scottish Labour and dents his chances of becoming the next prime minister.
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