US speaker vote: Republican chaos continues after failed ballots

Former President Donald Trump is so far the only person to declare their candidacy for the 2024 White House race, but while he remains popular among Republican voters many of the candidates he endorsed in the mid-term elections were defeated or under-performed.

Party grandees have shown clear signs they are looking to marginalise the 76-year-old, who is facing a number of legal issues ahead of his bid to regain the White House. However, the likes of Mitch McConnell are walking a tightrope as they seek to defuse the Trump bomb without alienating his MAGA base, without which they would surely be unable to win in 2024.

The faultlines have become clear as the party looks to elect a speaker of the House, with a majority of just four seats laying bare the precarious position the GOP finds itself in.

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Kevin McCarthy is the Republican leader of the House and, as such, would usually take on the role. However, his accession is being blocked by hardliners in his own party, many of whom hail from the Freedom Caucus, the ideological successor to the Tea Party.

The populist movement counts 54 Republican representatives among its number, with many of them supporting Trump in his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. In 2023, the group has turned the guns on its own party.

To be elected speaker any candidate must receive an absolute majority of votes cast. That means that if all representatives cast a vote the total needed is 218, but that number is lower if representatives abstain.

The mid-term elections ended with the Republican party achieving a small majority in the House – 222 representatives to the 212 returned by the Democrats. As a result the GOP have the votes to elect a speaker of their choice but, crucially, almost no room for dissent.

Hardliners in the party have refused to give their votes to McCarthy, with a group of 20 instead voting for Byron Donalds of Florida. There is no rule stating that the speaker of the House, second in line to the Presidency after vice-President Kamala Harris, must be a sitting member and representative Matt Gaetz voted for former commander-in-chief Donald Trump in the seventh and 11th ballots.

Though McCarthy has the endorsement of the former President, it’s the Trump wing of the party which is digging its heels in. The pair famously clashed over the January 6 attack on the Capitol building, with McCarthy telling Trump “you’ve got to call these people off” while the former Apprentice host responded “well, Kevin, I guess they’re just more upset about election theft than you are”.

McCarthy later condemned the President from the floor of the House, and while he did not vote for Trump’s impeachment he did vote for the commander-in-chief to be censured. It is perhaps an indication of the waning power of Trump – if not his MAGA movement – that his endorsement has held very little sway with the rebels.

Congressman Ralph Norman said: “I disagree with Donald Trump. He's backing Kevin McCarthy, and Kevin McCarthy is the one who said that he was going to censure the President - and the President should not have been censured.”

McCarthy has offered a number of concessions in an effort to win the votes he needs. He has agreed to propose a rule change that would mean just one member could call a vote to oust a sitting speaker, offered members of the Freedom Caucus places on the House Rules Committee, and promisrd votes on right-wing priorities such as border security and term limits for members.

The rebels’ strategy is actually one which was proposed ahead of Nancy Pelosi’s election as Democratic speaker in 2021. The ‘Force the Vote’ movement urged more left-wing representatives such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar to withhold their vote for the house leader unless she would guarantee a vote on a Medicare For All bill. That was opposed by others on the left who considered forcing a vote on a bill which would never pass to be a squandering of political power which could be used in other areas. Ultimately two Democrats voted for other candidates, while three did not cast a vote, and Pelosi was re-elected.

Two years on, the Democrats appear to be enjoying watching the civil war across the aisle. Over the course of the eleven votes all 212 Democratic members have voted for House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries. Their votes cannot get the representative from New York’s eighth district elected – six Republicans giving him the necessary votes is unthinkable. However, by holding firm the party can present the Republicans as shambolic and divided – something the GOP knows all too well.

Congressman Dan Crenshaw admitted the endless voting “makes us look foolish” while Marjorie Taylor Greene, a hardcore right-winger, told the rebels to “wake up to political reality”.

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The chaos is reminiscent of the election of Frederick H Gillet 100 years ago, when it took nine rounds of voting to overcome the opposition of 17 ‘progressive’ Republicans, who eventually came onside having been promised procedural reforms. Gillet was elected with 215 votes after a number of abstentions.

In 1885, divisions over slavery meant it took two months and 133 votes to eventually elect the abolitionist Nathaniel P Banks, who defeated pro-slavery Democrat William Richardson.

Could that odyssey be recreated in 2023? Voting resumed at noon on Friday with McCarthy saying progress had been made, but voting was still expected to continue into the weekend.

Asked how long he and his fellow rebels were willing to hold out, Ralph Norman of South Carolina replied: “Six months.”