YouGov has become the fourth pollster to register majority support for independence in the wake of the Supreme Court verdict.
According to their latest survey, 53 per cent of Scots would now back a Yes vote. It is the first time in two years that they have found support for leaving the union ahead of remaining.
New Scottish Independence poll, YouGov 6 - 9 Dec (changes vs 30 Sep - 4 Oct):
— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) December 12, 2022
Yes ~ 47% (+4)
No ~ 42% (-3)
Don't Know ~ 8% (+1)
Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014):
Yes ~ 53% (+4 / +8)
No ~ 47% (-4 / -8) pic.twitter.com/o8IBNv1TRZ
The poll, carried out for the Times, comes after similar results for Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Ipsos and Find Out Now.
READ MORE: Yes movement split over which election should be 'de facto' referendum
Professor John Curtice said the Supreme Court judgement - which ruled that Holyrood could not hold a referendum without the consent of Westminster - had “not done unionism itself any favours.”
He told the paper: “On this evidence, just saying ‘no’ to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy for maintaining public support for the Union.”
The poll of 1,090 voters found 47% would back independence, while 42% would say no, while 8% were undecided.
Yes is up 4% since October, while No fell by three points.
After the undecided were excluded, independence support was on 53% compared to 47% for the union.
In the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court verdict, Nicola Sturgeon confirmed that she was set to push ahead with a plan to make the next general election a ‘de facto’ referendum.
If pro-independence parties secure more than 50% of the popular vote then that would be a mandate to open negotiations on independence with the prime minister.
READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon's authority 'absolutely solid', insists cabinet ally
However, the poll suggests the SNP and others might fall short, with the First Minister’s party winning 43%, down two points.
It also predicts Labour on 29% of the vote and the Conservatives taking 14%.
And, when asked, 52% of voters said they did not think pro-independence parties securing a majority of the vote constituted a mandate for independence. This was also the view of slightly less than a quarter of SNP supporters.
However, there is growing demand for a vote, with 51% of voters calling for a referendum in the next five years, while just over half of all voters believe that the Scottish parliament should be able to hold a referendum without the agreement of the UK government.
Even among those who voted “no” in 2014, 23% say Holyrood should be able to decide for itself.
Writing in the Times, Professor Curtice said the poll was not all good news for the SNP. The academic said Ms Sturgeon's party could lose pro-independence voices to a resurgent Labour party.
He said: “While most independence supporters say they would vote for the SNP, there is a minority who would back Labour. That minority is a little bigger in a Westminster election (12%) than a Holyrood one (9%).
“To secure more than 50% backing for pro-independence parties at the next UK election, Sturgeon will need to head off a potential challenge from Labour for the votes of some ‘yes’ supporters.”
The psephologist suggested the First Minister “would be wise to soften her stance and claim a 50% vote would be mandate for a referendum rather than one for independence itself.”
Responding to the poll, the SNP's Depute Leader Keith Brown said: “It is clear that the people of Scotland want their voice to be heard, and the longer Westminster continues to ignore us, the more support for independence will grow.
“More and more people in Scotland are looking at the utter incompetence of this Tory government, and how the Labour party has abandoned them to adopt a disastrous pro-Brexit policy, and realising that the only way Scotland can escape the long-term damage of Brexit and Westminster control is with independence.
“The people of Scotland will simply not stand for the Westminster parties’ Trump-like democracy denial. The people of Scotland have already voted for a referendum meaning that now is the time for one, and politicians at Westminster must recognise that.
“It’s clear that Scotland can flourish as an independent country in the European Union, and the people of Scotland deserve to have that choice over their future.”
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