IN the run up to the Supreme Court’s ruling that Holyrood cannot hold an independence referendum without Westminster’s agreement the expectation in SNP circles was there would be no end of Conservative gloating if Nicola Sturgeon lost.

Boris Johnson and his successor Liz Truss may not have been able to resist a considerable public display of schadenfreude had they still been in power on Wednesday.

But what struck many observers at Prime Minister’s Questions a couple of hours after Lord Reed read out the ruling was a rather muted response from Number Ten.

“We respect the clear and definitive ruling of the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom,” Mr Sunak told MPs when pressed on the matter by the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford.

“I think that the people of Scotland want us working on fixing the major challenges that collectively we face, whether that is the economy, supporting the NHS or indeed supporting Ukraine. Now is the time for politicians to work together, and that is what this Government will do.”

Allan Dorrans, the SNP MP for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, pushed further asking: “What democratic right do the government have to deny Scottish democracy, refuse an independence referendum and keep us shackled and imprisoned in this involuntary and unequal Union against the will of the Scottish people?”

Mr Sunak replied: “Again, we respect the decision of the court today with regard to the referendum and we are getting on with the business of working constructively, collaboratively and in partnership with the Scottish Government to deliver for the honourable member’s constituents. 

“Indeed, the Ayrshire growth deal is investing over £100 million to make use of his region’s strong industrial heritage, potentially making more use of renewable energy. That is the kind of positive project that we should be focused on, and that is what we will keep on delivering.”

The Prime Minister’s stance marks a significant shift in UK Government strategy towards the SNP and the Scottish Government. 

His words in the Commons on Wednesday signal the end of “muscular unionism” - the outlook advanced by Ms Truss when she said the First Minister was “best ignored” and by Mr Johnson when he declared “devolution has been a disaster” - and the beginning of a new approach.

The watchwords, as used repeatedly by the PM on Wednesday, are “collaborative”, “working constructively” and “partnership”.

Donald Cameron MSP, the Scottish Conservatives’ constitution spokesman, was well behind the new thinking when he discussed how to save the Union at a seminar at Glasgow University last Tuesday. 

“I think the way to improve the Union is to principally concentrate on inter-governmental relations among the UK government and the devolved governments.”

Central to the new strategy is demonstrating “the material benefits of the Union”.

Earlier this month the PM announced a £4.2 billion contract to BAE Systems to build five new Royal Navy warships on the Clyde.

More big news is expected when the winners of the two green freeport contracts - a joint initiative between the UK and Scottish Governments - are unveiled, probably before Christmas.

Five bids were submitted across Scotland to win the lucrative deals which are designed to promote regeneration and create high-quality jobs.

“The hope is that the Prime Minister and First Minister will announce [the winners] together,” said one Conservative source.

“My understanding is that the successful bids have been jointly agreed, following a partnership arrangement. 

“The Prime Minister certainly wants more of that and we think that is what people in Scotland want. Yes they can disagree on the constitution but there are areas where they can work together, especially at times like this.”

And further announcements on UK Government levelling up funds - cash help to local authorities to carry out infrastructure projects - are expected in due course.

Conservative insiders pointed to the two parties appearing to go in different directions. 

While, they insisted, Mr Sunak is moving to have a more constructive relationship with the Scottish Government, the First Minister is developing a more hardline stance on the constitution.

She is still seeking the PM’s agreement on a vote next and in her speech following the Supreme Court ruling she reiterated her plans to use the next general election as a “de facto referendum” on independence.

“By instinct Rishi Sunak is a very reasonable politician. He wants to seek consensus. He’s not bombastic. He’s not a politician who likes division and controversy,” said the Tory insider.

“But also given the circumstances at the moment. The cost of living, Ukraine, the Prime Minister genuinely believes people want their two governments to work together and have as a co-operative approach as much as possible.

“The SNP do seek grievance to find grievance, sometimes where none exists, so I think there is an element of being as reasonable as possible or at least not to give them any excuse to claim they are being snubbed, badly treated or not listened to.”

He added: “There is a danger for the SNP that people will regard them as a one trick pony, that they are obsessed [with independence] when it is not the issue that is obsessing the country. That is a problem for them.” 

Independent pollster Mark Diffley said the Tories’ new approach was a result of the failure of the previous one.

“If you look at the situation from a Scottish Conservative point of view, a year ago they were polling on average just above 20 per cent,” he said.

“And now they are at 15 per cent or below. Their polling performance now seems to reflect that the party’s previous strategy towards Scotland hadn’t really worked...And the support they have lost in Scotland has gone directly to Labour so that has obviously put [Scottish Tory leader] Douglas Ross under some pressure.”

Mr Diffley added that while the Supreme Court ruling was “good news” for the Conservatives as it meant there would not be a referendum next year and that it clarified that power over the vote lay at Westminster, the judgement also created challenges for the party.

“It does beg the question that if the Union is voluntary how  can Scotland remove itself from it?” he said.

“I think that is a question that many on the unionist side have struggled to answer.”

He said that as the UK Government couldn’t answer that question clearly it was better for them not to stoke the argument.

“They don’t want to pick a big fight with the SNP,” he said.

“Hence they are pushing an alternative line ‘let’s just co-operate’ and ‘we need a partnership of governments through this time.’”

Mr Diffley said the SNP’s “denial of democracy” argument - was successfully used by the party to build support in the run up and aftermath of Brexit and could continue to prove popular in its revised format.

“In many ways it is fundamentally the same argument,” he said.

“So while we don’t know what’s going to happen to polling in the future and as a result of the Supreme Court judgement, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that it may bump up support for independence if the SNP and Yes movement can make the argument of democracy being denied stick with the public.” 

However, he added the Conservatives may have a point about the risks for the SNP in pursuing an independence vote with such determination when voters’ concerns are elsewhere - and that they would need to be careful with the tone of their message.

He referred to recent public opinion surveys that suggested voters’ key concerns are the cost of living, inflation, energy and the NHS.

“The argument that the SNP and pro independence supporters make that the benefit of independence is that you always get the government you vote for is one that does play well with the public,” he said.

“The counter argument is that the constitution and independence are not at the top of people’s agenda right now. People are more focussed at getting through winter, what’s going to happen with the NHS, paying energy bills. 

“But if over the longer term the public think the discussion on the constitution has just been shut down without any meaningful vote, then it is possible that that may move opinion.”

He added: “However my view is talking about prisoners and that we’re in some colonial style arrangement is not one that appeals to floating voters. 

“The language used here is really quite important. Make the anti-democratic argument and there is a chance that could be popular, but if you take the language to a more extreme level you are probably going to alienate people.”