Can Rishi Sunak save the Scottish Conservatives?

The government of Liz Truss then brought a fresh crisis as the pound’s value nose dived and mortgages soared in the wake of the mini-Budget with the fall-out bringing an humiliating end to her short premiership.

At the height of the turmoil in late September opinion polls showed a collapse in support for the Conservatives right across the UK with Labour on a 33-point vote intention lead in the wake of mini-Budget chaos. It was the highest figure the party had ever recorded in any published poll since the late 1990s. Two surveys showed the Tories faced losing all six of its Scottish MPs at the next general election.

With Mr Sunak at the helm, spirits were last week slowly lifting in the Scottish Conservatives with huge relief that Mr Johnson had pulled out of the leadership race on Monday.

For now Mr Sunak is enjoying a honeymoon period  though he is already facing questions over his reappointment of Suella Braverman as home secretary after she resigned from the Truss government for a security breach.

With a £50 billion black hole in public finances and the prospect of  major public spending cuts and tax rises, the improved mood may not last long with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt giving his fiscal statement on November 17.

Liz Smith, the Scottish Conservative’s finance and economy spokeswoman, was among the MSPs who backed Mr Sunak in the summer leadership campaign and in his new bid.

The MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife described the mood among the Scottish Tories before Mr Sunak became PM on Tuesday.

“It’s been very grim. A lot of the damage was self-inflicted. The Johnson government was causing us difficulties, and that obviously ran through the Truss government,” she said.

“It was over several months, starting from partygate. I had literally hundreds of emails coming in from constituents across Mid Scotland and Fife from people who were furious and in some case had lost loved ones at the time and hadn’t been able to visit them in hospital.

“The trust you absolutely have to have between the Prime Minister or at least the body politic and the people, was undermined. It had been lost. And I think that continued a little bit in the Truss government. I think Sunak and Hunt will bring that trust back.”

She added: “There are three things I like about [Rishi Sunak] very much. He is very upfront and honest.

"He has an integrity about him that is very important, particularly after the Boris problem. Secondly, I think he gets Scotland. He understands why Scotland is such an integral part of the United Kingdom. 

“But, also being an economist myself and having the finance role, I think he has a good approach to the whole economy. What he said in the summer, a lot of that has turned out to be fairly accurate.” 

She was delighted he phoned First Minister Nicola Sturgeon less than 12 hours in the job.

“I think we should work together, and there’s definitely been good things, whether that’s been city deals, free ports, levelling-up.

"But I think the implication was with previous Conservative governments was that they were not working well enough with the devolved administrations,” she said.

She underlined that at the height of the turmoil it was hard for Tory MSPs to grab the media spotlight when they were tackling the Scottish Government on ferries, education or its independence papers.

There is anticipation that fewer questions will be posed to them about Westminster Tories with Mr Sunak at the helm.

“It was frustrating that when I would go on [BBC Radio Scotland] Good Morning Scotland or whatever programme it might be, I would be asked about problems done in Westminster,” she said.

Fellow Scottish Conservative MSP Pam Gosal, the first Sikh to be elected to the Scottish Parliament and one of the first women of colour to be elected to Holyrood, travelled to London last Wednesday to meet Mr Sunak at a Downing Street reception to celebrate Diwali, the five-day festival of lights, celebrated by Hindus, Sikhs and Jains around the world.

Ms Gosal told of her pride in Mr Sunak becoming the first Prime Minister from a south Asian background.

“During the election campaign, I heard from so many people in the BAME community who wanted to support his leadership bid – including people who would never normally become involved with politics and many who would never consider themselves to be Conservative supporters.

"There was a clear sense of both excitement and pride within the community – something that is only stronger now that he has become Prime Minister,” she said.

“Rishi Sunak’s rise to the top will serve as an inspiration to ethnic minority communities around the world.”

Some in the Scottish Conservative party believe Mr Sunak’s background may make him a harder opponent for the First Minister - despite his significant personal wealth.
Sources stressed that while the new PM and his wife Akshata Murty are very rich, the furlough scheme introduced during the pandemic has demonstrated he can deliver policies to help people struggling to make ends meet. 

“While he is clearly very wealthy, his background as the first British Asian PM, demonstrates that he has the quality of an outsider too. He is an underdog who has broken the glass ceiling,” said one source.

“It’s no secret that opinion polls found that Boris either didn’t cut through to voters in Scotland or if he did, he did so very negatively.

“Whereas I think whether Tory voters or not, the public will see Rishi Sunak as a serious politician who has a track record on furlough and business support schemes during the Covid pandemic, that he is battle hardened from tough times.

“He’s not going to be an active drag on the party’s reputation.  A lot of folk said Boris Johnson was the nats' dream because he did polarise people.

"I think at the very least Rishi Sunak will neutralise that effect and won't actively turn people off. He's not going to be toxic in the way Boris was to some people - although he did have some supporters from the membership [in Scotland] who would defend him to the hilt."

But can he bring the Tories back from the brink electorally?

A BMG survey, carried out last week, found Labour still holds a large polling lead, putting the party on course for power at the next election – but Mr Sunak’s personal ratings were positive.

According to the poll, voters trust Mr Sunak to handle the economy more than Sir Keir Starmer, and believe he would make a better Prime Minister.

Eddie Barnes, former communications director of the Scottish Conservatives, who is now campaign director for the pro-Union organisation Our Scottish Future, underlined that while Mr Sunak has had a positive start, the Tories face huge challenges which both Labour and the SNP will exploit.

“The return of Michael Gove to the Department of Levelling up is also a good thing – Gove has a keen understanding of what is needed and how UK Government must work with the Scottish Government to deliver results on the ground for people. That’s what Unionism should be about, not daft flag waving and confrontation.”

He added: “Overall though, the Tories still face an uphill challenge because, no matter who is in charge, Sunak faces economic headwinds and is going to have to enforce a combination of tax rises and spending cuts. 

“The SNP will seek to capitalise on that and given their dominance of the narrative in Scotland, it’s therefore going to be tough to sell Sunak Conservatism as compassionate and caring.

"But that also creates an opening for Labour as a party that can pledge to turn things around in the immediate term.”

What did Ms Smith think of the prospects for her party?

“Rishi Sunak clearly has the parliamentary party behind him, including those in Scotland too,” she said.

“And I think that’s important. So I do think he will help our fortunes.”

Could the Conservatives win the next general election likely to be in 2024?

“I think it will be very tough,” said Ms Smith. “The opinion polls have improved since Rishi Sunak took over, but there is still a wide chasm and we have to re-earn the trust that we lost.”

However, she thought it “now unlikely” the polls showing all six Scottish Tory MPs would lose their seat would be borne out.

“We don’t underestimate the challenge we’ve got. It’s a long way back,” she added.