Resurgent Labour to target 'soft' SNP voters in battle to oust Liz Truss

However, surveys have also pointed to Labour in Scotland needing to do considerable work to rebuild the support it lost after the independence referendum in 2014 when former voters deserted it for the SNP.

Research published by YouGov last week showed Starmer and Anas Sarwar's party would win just seven seats north of the Border following a Scottish Tory wipeout while the SNP would remain dominant with support at 45 per cent and on course to win 49 out of the country's 59 seats.

Labour strategists for the most part have previously concentrated on winning over disillusioned Tory voters, but key figures now believe this approach can only have limited success and the party needs to lure back SNP supporters if it is to gain ground substantially.

Its message to swithering SNP voters will be that Labour is best placed to achieve the immediate objective of removing Truss from Number Ten - and that a vote for the SNP could place that goal in jeopardy.

One insider suggested many Scots, including those who had voted for the SNP, were warming to Labour.

“The reaction to Labour on the doorsteps, and in focus groups, is warmer than it has been in years," said a source.

“There is still a lot of work to do to persuade enough SNP voters to switch to Labour, but increasing numbers are open to it – particularly given the stark choice of a Labour PM or Tory PM."

The source said the SNP were nervous about the prospect of a resurgent Labour and the prospect of the party eating into its vote.

In a sign of a bitter campaign to come Keith Brown, depute leader of the SNP, opened his party's conference in Aberdeen yesterday with a ferocious attack on Labour arguing that “any suggestion that a Labour Westminster government will be better for Scotland is simply laughable”.

A Labour insider quipped: "“You can tell the SNP machine is seeing the same shift because they are expending so much more energy on attacking Labour.”

The strategy to win back SNP voters was outlined in a paper "Winning Back the First Red Wall" by the Scottish Fabians published in August. Ian Murray, MP for Edinburgh South (the party's only MP) and shadow secretary of state for Scotland, was involved in the work.

It identified some 25 seats - all apart from Murray's seat won by the SNP in 2019 and now held by the SNP or former SNP MPs - that are "within grasp" in 2024.

Seventeen of the seats were described as 'winnable' - Hamilton and Clyde, West Dunbartonshire, Airdrie and Shotts, Edinburgh South, East Lothian, Motherwell and Clydeside North, Renfrew North, Coatbridge and Bellshill, Inverclyde and Bridge of Weir, Rutherglen, Glasgow East, Renfrew South, Midlothian, Edinburgh South West, Glasgow North, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, and Linlithgow and Bathgate.

The paper described as "competitive" other seats including Glasgow South West, Glasgow South and Kelvin North.

It found young and 'aspirational voters', who had voted SNP, were now more concerned about jobs, the cost of living and the state of the NHS than independence. However, the paper recognised too that these voters opposed to the constitutional status quo.

"There has been much media attention on the SNP and now the Greens stating that the next General Election will be a “de facto” referendum. The task for Scottish Labour over the next few months and into 2023 is to speak to voters, particularly younger and more aspirational voters about the economy, public services, and the cost-of-living crisis," the paper stated.

"The focus of Scottish Labour should be to demonstrate a clear difference between the SNP and Labour in terms of policy in Scotland and the Tories in the UK.

"Whilst the SNP and the Greens obsess over a second independence referendum, Scottish Labour must offer a bold alternative not only on what matters to voters– living standards, public services, job security and climate change. In particular, the party must convince low to middle income voters it has answers to the economic insecurities and failing public services that blight their lives."

It added: "The more that UK Labour look like the next government the more the choice becomes clear for “soft” SNP and Green voters who clearly prefer Labour to the Tories and want a government that can address the issues affecting the whole of the UK. These voters want a change to the status quo, it is the job of the Labour party to convince them that the fastest route to changed and reformed UK is through a Labour government in Westminster."

The paper examined the results of the 2022 council elections, which saw Labour take second place and increase its vote share by 1.6 percentage points primarily at the expense of the Conservatives.

It found a section of SNP voters ranked Labour in their top three under the single transferable voting system.

"When we look at nationalist voters who voted across constitutional lines to vote Scottish Labour as their second party choice, we can start to see the potential Labour has," the document argued.

Focus groups have been held by the Scottish Fabians with SNP voters in recent weeks.

The findings of the exercise, carried out ahead of the mini Budget, were given to the Herald on Sunday and show particular concerns about public services and the cost living. Many of those taking part described how they had to take on second jobs on top of full time employment to make ends meet.

There was a strong demand to remove the Conservatives from power - but a dilemma over whether to vote SNP or Labour.

"I'm torn between the SNP and Labour," said Tracy, who voted SNP in 2017 and 2019.

"I would vote Labour because I want to get the Tories out. But deep down I want to vote SNP."

Jen said: "The Tory government have made an ar** of themselves for the last three years, so I would go Labour just to get them out. But it's not just a case of voting for that. It's a case of voting for who is better for your country. So as it stands I couldn't tell you if I would go SNP or Labour."

Martin McCluskey, chair of the Scottish Fabians, said: “The movement of voters towards Labour doesn’t come as a surprise after sitting through focus groups that the Scottish Fabians conducted with people who voted SNP in 2019 and 2021.

“Voter after voter told us that when it came to a general election, they were on the fence about who to support. Some had already made the journey from SNP to Labour as the best option to beat the Tories at the next election.

“And we were hearing this before the Chancellor’s disastrous budget and before Keir Starmer had started to lay out Labour’s policy offer at the party conference.

“Labour only needs to win over about one in five SNP voters to bring many seats across Scotland into play at the next UK General Election. With a compelling policy offer and Anas Sarwar’s popularity with many SNP voters, that now seems achievable.”

The SNP’s Westminster Independence Campaign Coordinator, Stewart Hosie MP said: “In every Tory seat in Scotland it's the SNP, not Labour, who are in second place. Any assertion that a vote for Labour is a vote to boot out the Tories in those areas is therefore a complete fallacy.

“Liz Truss’ short tenure as Prime Minister has been appalling, much like the record of her predecessors, but by framing the choice facing Scots as one between Labour and the Tories, two parties with abysmal records in Scotland, only brings to light the failures of the broken Westminster system.

“Before the next general election Scots will have the opportunity to choose a better, more democratic path, by grasping the full powers of independence and escaping the chaos of Westminster once and for all.”