Labour has opened up a 33-point lead over the Conservatives in wake of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting, high-borrowing mini-budget last Friday. 

Liz Truss’s Government has been engulfed in a political and economic crisis since then, after the £45 billion tax-cutting package spooked markets and forced the Bank of England to intervene. 

Now, days before Ms Truss arrives at her first Conservative Party conference as Prime Minister, a poll from YouGov suggests that Labour currently sits on 54% – 33 points ahead of the Tories on 21%. 

According to the poll, support for the Conservatives has fallen by seven points in the past four days, handing Labour a mammoth lead against the party. 

The gap between the two main parties has now grown so large that, if the polls are accurate, a general election would see a complete change of government and consign the Tories to the political wilderness.  

But how strong is Labour’s lead? And is this poll a one-off? Could the Tories rally and is Liz Truss ever going to get a ‘new leader bounce’? 

How does this poll fit in with trends this year? 

The historic poll for Labour is in no way an outlier, except in the size of Sir Keir Starmer’s party’s lead. Since the start of the year Labour has enjoyed a consistent lead in the polls, unshaken by any announcements, pronouncements, changes at the top or global events.  

Earlier in the week a YouGov poll for the Times, conducted after the mini-budget but before the pound went into freefall, gave Labour a 17 point lead, the highest the company has recorded until the latest poll.  

Though Labour’s lead has sometimes dropped as low as 1%, in the dozens of published polls since January 1st the Conservatives have never been in front this year. And on multiple occasions Labour’s lead been estimated to be in the double digits.  

Not since 6 December 2021 has an opinion poll found the Conservatives to be more popular with voters than their main opposition..  

In normal times the announcement of the resignation of an unpopular Prime Minister would result in a dip in the opposition’s support and a boost for the incumbent party.  

However, when Boris Johnson, mired in the Partygate scandal and other allegations, said he was stepping down on July 7, the lead in the polls did not switch back to the Conservatives. 

Though there was a dip in support, by August backing for Labour was creeping back towards double digits, where it has largely remained.  

There has been no ‘fresh face’ boost for Liz Truss either – with only six of the 24 polls since she became Prime Minister showing a Labour lead in single figures. 

Worryingly for the new Prime Minister, voting intentions in favour of Labour appear to have hardened considerably since the ‘mini-budget’ and ensuing economic turmoil.  

What else did the most recent poll say?  

The poll, which surveyed 1,712 adults on Wednesday and Thursday, comes as Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng have struggled to reassure economists and the public alike about the merits of their economic strategy. 

The lead is, according to YouGov, the highest of any recorded poll since the late 1990s. 

Voters appeared more willing to pick Sir Keir Starmer when asked who would make the best Prime Minister, with 44% choosing the Labour leader compared with just 15% for Ms Truss when asked to choose between the pair. 

While Ms Truss has said before that she is prepared to be an unpopular prime minister if it means delivering growth for the UK, the figures will nonetheless likely prompt serious questions about her leadership only weeks into the job. 

What will particularly worry the Conservatives is that only 37% of 2019 voters said they would stick with the party at the next election. 

Elsewhere, the poll puts the Liberal Democrats on 7% 

How would this play out in a general election? 

If the most recent poll was repeated in an election, it would be an unprecedented landslide result for Labour. Applying broad UK-side polls to constituencies is difficult, as each has its own variables.

But if the swing was uniform across the country it would allow essentially wipe out the Conservative party as a political force. 

Under such a nationwide swing, they would be left with just two MPs.  

In Scotland, however, there would be little change as polling has consistently found the SNP to remain as popular as ever, and even likely to increase their almost total domination of Westminster seats.

But Scottish sampling in nationwide polls is often taken from a smaller base, meaning only Scottish-exclusive polls can show the whole picture.  

What do the experts say?  

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said that the most recent survey found that people believed the fiscal statement had been unfair, and that people were now switching to the Labour Party because in the belief they are stronger placed to protect the economy – a crucial metric. 

He told GB news: “We’ve now had four opinion polls since last Friday’s fiscal event. On average they put the Labour party 15 points ahead, by 45% to 30%. That compares to an average Labour lead of nine points before last Thursday.  

“So, two points follow. One is that the Government was already in a relatively poor position before the fiscal event. 

“There was no sign of a bounce for the Conservatives – in the wake of Liz Truss’ accession to the Conservative leadership and the keys to No10 Downing Street.” 

He added: “Secondly, the polls indicate that the public have reacted against the financial statement.”   

Former Conservative MSP Professor Adam Tomkins, writing in The Herald, said that his party’s “time is up” and that Labour was better placed to handle the economy.