Italy went to the polls on Sunday, and its general election brought a decisive victory for the right wing.
While the anti-establishment Five Star movement held on in the south and the centre-left Partita Democratica got good results in cities like Turin and Milan, as well as the traditionally left-wing regions of Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany, it was a crushing win for the coalition of the right.
After receiving a combined 44 per cent of the vote it commands an absolute majority thanks to winning almost all of the first-past-the-post seats in Italy’s mixed electoral system, and Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) leader Giorgia Meloni will become the new Prime Minister.
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Governments don’t tend to last long in Italy – this will be their 70th since World War II – and with issues like energy, the war in Ukraine and the nation’s relationship with the EU there’s plenty at stake - and with turnout for the election the lowest in the history of the Republic, the nation isn't exactly enthused.
Here’s what will happen over the coming days and weeks as Meloni forms what is expected to be the most right-wing administration since Mussolini.
What happens now?
The Prime Minister is not Italy’s head of state, that honour belongs to President Sergio Mattarella.
His role is to uphold the Italian constitution and it is he who will ask Meloni to form a new government.
She will then look to put together a cabinet drawn from the centre-right coalition which came to power in Sunday’s election.
Who is in that coalition?
The largest party is Meloni’s own FdI, but there are other right-wing parties involved in the coalition and that makes forming a government a tougher task.
She’ll need to find compromise with Matteo Salvini’s Lega, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Noi Moderati (We Moderates) who won nine seats between the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.
Read More: Italy elects first far-right government since World War II
Salvini, Meloni and Berlusconi agreed in a meeting before the election that the largest party would put forward its candidate to be Prime Minister, but the other parties will be expecting cabinet positions.
What issues will she face?
The big players from the other parties in the centre-right coalition will want big roles in government, and Meloni can’t risk losing their support if she wants to govern effectively.
Equally, she can’t just hand out jobs.
For example, Salvini is known to covet the Minister of the Interior role he previously held in 2019. According to La Stampa though his relationship with Vladimir Putin is causing concern within FdI about giving him such a prominent role – and there’s also the small matter of his being on trial for alleged abuse of office from the last time he held the role, when his government stopped a boatload of refugees from docking in Sicily. Richard Gere is a witness for the prosecution.
As La Repubblica put it, ‘defusing’ the Lega leader will be her first big task.
It’s been suggested that she may look to do that by having two deputy PMs. One from her own party, likely Antonio Tajani, and the other being Salvini.
Forza Italia have 45 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 18 in the Senate. Berlusconi has promised to make compromises “in the country’s interests” but pointedly warned the government “wouldn’t even get started” if he and his party feared a populist turn from FdI and the Lega.
When will everything be decided?
There are still likely to be several weeks of talks both in public and behind the scenes.
The new legislature will be seated on October 13, with the new government to be in place soon after. Realistically Meloni can expect to form a government by mid-to-late October. How long it will hold together is anyone’s guess.
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