BUT will it work? It’s the question on everyone’s lips about Liz Truss’s Growth Plan aimed at thrusting Britain into a golden future by means of a big economic “sugar-rush” paid for by piling our mountain of debt ever higher.
Unsurprisingly, many on the Right were cock-a-hoop at Kwasi Kwarteng’s “new era” super-Budget.
“How refreshing it is to hear some Conservative policies at last,” declared one Tory MP while another insisted the Chancellor had “no option” but to break from the policies of his predecessor, Rishi Sunak, which were overtaxing Britons with no prospect of growth.
The Conservative-supporting media eulogised Kwarteng’s new approach. One commentator hailed it as “revolutionary”. Big business leaders concluded there was “no choice but to go for growth”.
And Brexitmaster Nigel Farage couldn’t be left out, praising Kwarteng’s policy package as the “best Conservative Budget since 1986”.
But there the positivity ends.
Sunak’s supporters, who make up a majority of Tory MPs, were downcast.
One branded Truss’s plan “politically toxic,” another “electoral suicide,” a third noted he had “never known a government that has had so little support from its own backbenches, just four sitting days in”.
Intriguingly, Lord Barwell, Theresa May’s ex-chief of staff, describing himself as from the liberal Centre Right, declared: “I haven’t left the Conservative Party, it has left me. As a result, I find myself increasingly homeless.”
If the dissenters turn up, next week’s Tory conference in Birmingham could be a bloodbath.
Kwarteng’s big bazooka spooked the markets. Sterling sank to a new 37-year low at just over $1.08 while the FTSE plunged to its lowest level in three months.
A falling pound means motorists are paying an extra fiver for a tank of petrol while energy bills are likely to rise because the price of all gas used in Britain is based on the dollar.
Foreign investors, we rely on to fund our finances, expressed doubts about Britain’s ability to pay for the Government’s package with bond yields hitting 3.7%, meaning our debt interest payments are rising. A year ago, they were less than 1%.
Paul Krugman, a top US economist, pointed out sterling’s plunge had occurred despite a hike in interest rates, which was not meant to happen in G7 countries.
“We expect deficit spending to drive up interest rates and make the currency rise…But Britain is now trading like a developing country, where perceived fiscal irresponsibility is undermining confidence in the value of its currency.”
Ex-US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers argued the UK was “behaving a bit like an emerging market turning itself into a submerging market”.
He said there was nothing in the market response to Kwarteng’s announcement that suggested “anything but fear rather than confidence,” adding: “It wouldn’t surprise me if the pound eventually gets below a dollar, if the current policy path is maintained.”
It cannot surely boost market confidence when the Government is seeking to increase economic activity with tax cuts while, simultaneously, the Bank of England is trying to dampen it with interest rate rises. The former stokes inflation, the latter tries to lower it.
All of which will means this push-me-pull-you approach will continue with interest rates continuing to rise to possibly beyond 5% next year, double what they are now.
At home, the Institute for Fiscal Studies was equally damning about the Growth Plan.
With the Government planning to borrow an extra £72bn this year and expected to borrow more than £100bn every year for the next five years, the highly-respected think-tank said: “The plan seems to be to borrow large sums at increasingly expensive rates, put Government debt on an unsustainable rising path and hope we get better growth."
Politically, Truss supporters are hoping her strategy causes difficulty for Labour over whether it would, say, reverse the planned penny off income tax. Labour, not surprisingly, dodged the question but stressed it would reverse the scrapping of the higher 45p tax band.
As the Labour conference begins in Liverpool today, its leadership will seek to exploit the growing ideological gulf, branding the Government’s Growth Plan grossly unfair. It’s been calculated that 45% of the £45bn of tax cuts will go to the richest 5%.
IFS analysis suggests only those earning over £155,000 - who, as luck would have it, include the PM - would see any benefits from the tax policies over the current Parliament with the "vast majority of income taxpayers paying more tax".
Keir Starmer yesterday denounced the Tories’ “casino economics” and is likely to declare that the 2024 election campaign begins now, hoping despite the picket line row, trade unionists will rally behind his leadership. Surely, the brothers and sisters must recognise how general elections are a binary choice on who governs: Labour or Conservative.
The political and economic divide is even starker in Scotland with Nicola Sturgeon, having denounced the Truss prospectus as deeply unfair, is unlikely, as she tweeted, “blindly follow suit” and similarly cut Scottish tax rates.
Unbelievably, Kwarteng insisted the Growth Plan was “not a gamble,” when clearly it is, while his Treasury colleague Chris Philp dismissed criticism as the “politics of envy” and even hinted there were more changes to come with a possible reworking of tax income thresholds for England.
What is also worrying is the absence of an OBR analysis, which would normally accompany a big budgetary statement, prompting Labour to brand it a “menu without prices”. But the number-crunching will eventually see the light of day and then flak will fly again.
When in future armchairs we recall the Truss years in Downing St, we might conclude that the trail of the Conservatives’ defeat at the 2024 election led back to when a grinning Chancellor stood up and “bet the house” on his boss’s big gamble.
One ex-Tory minister aptly summed up the position: “What worries me is never again will we be able to accuse Labour of being fiscally reckless or believing in the magic money tree. This better work or we’re in deep trouble.” The Conservatives already are.
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