COME tomorrow lunchtime the country will see another turning of the page for UK politics with the fourth prime minister in just six years; a clear sign of turbulent times.
Boris Johnson will leave the stage, no doubt in his own idiosyncratic way, and after a trip to Balmoral, his successor will later in the afternoon set out their plan to steer the ship of state through the most turbulent of economic waters.
From all the polls and the pundits, Liz Truss looks likely to become Britain’s 56th Prime Minister; the third woman to hold the top job.
The premiership’s uniqueness means nothing will quite prepare the 47-year-old for the tsunami that is about to hit her, however much help she is given. This would be the case in benign times, even more so in extremely difficult ones.
The overriding aim will be to produce a comprehensive plan to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. Treasury officials have spent the summer working up options. But there isn’t much time as Britain faces a season of continuing industrial strife.
After the leadership ballot closed on Friday Truss said “cutting taxes, pushing through supply-side reform and slashing red tape” were her key priorities to get Britain firing on all cylinders. She has pledged to reverse April’s rise in National Insurance and next year’s corporation tax increase from 19% to 25%.
The Foreign Secretary has previously ruled out “hand-outs” but, following criticism, has nuanced her message, signalling there would be targeted help, saying: “I will deliver immediate support to ensure people are not facing unaffordable fuel bills.”
This is likely to mean topping up benefits for the poorest households; it’s unclear how she will help middle earners, who will feel the pinch, as well as anxious businesses facing energy hikes of 500% or more.
A fiscal statement is expected within days with a fuller Budget filling out the details later.
Peers have described how Britain is facing a “Dunkirk moment” and have called for radical action; a cap on energy price rises, which, they say, would lower inflation by several percentage points and thus reduce other price hikes and wage rises.
Lord Darling, the former Chancellor, who faced the monster that was the financial crash, this week condemned the Government for “fiddling around with small measures” as he called for “significant and substantial” ones, noting that what he had learned from 2008 was the Government had to do “more than people expect”.
There will be no time to waste. Monday evening will be spent appointing the new Cabinet, which is expected to sit for its first meeting on Wednesday morning before the inaugural PMQs of the new era.
If, as widely expected, Truss wins, speculation is rife her fellow Greenwich resident Kwasi Kwarteng will become the new Chancellor.
Other appointments could include Nadhim Zahawi to the Foreign Office, although the current Education Secretary, James Cleverley, has also been linked with the glamour role.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, has privately met oil and gas chiefs about the prospect of increasing North Sea production, raising speculation he could become the new Business and Energy Secretary.
Therese Coffey, the Work and Pensions Secretary and a staunch ally of Truss, looks set for promotion, possibly to Health.
Arch-Brexiteer Suella Braverman could replace Priti Patel at the Home Office while the other previous leadership candidates - Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt - are all tipped to get top jobs as well.
What to do with Rishi Sunak, her rival, who has labelled Truss’s economic plan “immoral” and “unConservative”? It’s hard to see in such circumstances how the ex-Chancellor could take up any frontline role, which underlines how difficult it will be to reunite the party with just 18 months to go before the next election.
As for the role of Scottish Secretary, Alister Jack decided not to publicly back either candidate. Now this may have been a smart strategy designed not to alienate either of them but, equally, it could mean they have both regarded his indecision with disfavour.
If this turns out to be the case, then it could mean if Truss wins, David Mundell, who was her prime backer at the Scottish hustings, could make a happy return to Dover House, and if Sunak wins, Andrew Bowie, who was his main backer at the same event, could, aged just 35, be propelled into the Cabinet as its youngest member. Stranger things have happened.
When Theresa May put her feet under the Downing St desk for the first time, she placed a file marked “Union” at the top of the pile. I suspect this won’t be the case with Truss, who seems more likely to place it towards the bottom.
During the hustings, the favourite to succeed Boris Johnson famously branded Nicola Sturgeon an “attention-seeker,” whom it was best to ignore. Good luck with that one.
There has been some speculation that Lord Frost, the ex-chief Brexit negotiator and another member of the Greenwich Gang, is being lined up as some kind of constitutional supremo to stick it to the Nationalists in the devolved nations in the belief London has for too long appeased them.
This aggressive posture may go down well with diehard Unionists but it’s doubtful it would win over the 30% of public opinion in Scotland, which is neither staunchly pro nor anti-independence, described by one senior Scottish Tory as the “soft centre”.
The SNP leadership’s desire to turn the next General Election into a “de facto referendum” on Scotland breaking away from Britain - should the Supreme Court not find in the Scottish Government’s favour on Indyref2 – raises the prospect of a deeply acrimonious 2024 campaign, which could become even more so if the new UK Government takes off the gloves.
We can only hope that whoever stands in Downing St at around 4pm on Monday has the good sense, mettle and resourcefulness to see the country through the coming storm. But even if they have and they do, we’re in for quite a battering.
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