SCOTLAND has been earmarked as a “key battleground” for Labour to pick up seats at the next UK general election, new analysis has found.
But the report by the Labour-affiliated Scottish Fabians also warns that some seats will remain out of reach north of the Border for Keir Starmer’s party.
The study has identified how Labour can make the necessary gains by winning seats from the SNP with a targeted focus on younger, more aspirational voters.
While last year’s local council elections suggest Labour would win or be competitive in 13 Scottish seats if replicated in a general election, this increases to 24 by squeezing SNP and Green voters.
The analysis shows that 20 per cent of SNP voters put Labour as their second party preference, and the Fabians conclude that persuading around half of these is key to success.
But the report warns that Labour’s recovery to date has largely been in diverse urban communities and older, lower income communities, with less progress being made in areas with higher proportions of successful young families, skilled manual workers and students or young professionals who are renting.
The report concludes that target seats such as Hamilton and Clyde, East Lothian and Midlothian are where younger, more aspirational voters make up a large proportion of people living in middle value properties, perhaps moving to one of the new housing estates there to start or expand their families – and it is these voters Labour must target.
Scottish Fabians national manager, Katherine Sangster, said: “Labour needs to gain 124 seats across the UK to secure a majority of one, and of the 150 potential target seats, 25 are in Scotland.
“From a starting point of one seat this may seem a tall order, yet the Labour Party cannot form a majority government without winning back seats in Scotland.
“Scotland must be one of the key battlegrounds for Labour going into an election.
“Our communities across the UK are struggling as the cost-of-living crisis spirals out of control yet the Conservatives seem preoccupied with finding the next ‘culture war’ to fight.
“It therefore falls to Labour to define the future of the UK and present a distinct vision of a socially democratic UK and demonstrate the difference a Labour government can make to communities.”
An SNP spokesperson said: "This is nonsense.
“If every SNP seat had been Labour in 2019 the Tories would still have had a majority of 80. The fact is that Labour has to win seats in England to become the UK government and the only party in place to challenge Tory MPs in Scotland is the SNP.
“And just like the Westminster Tories, a Labour government at Westminster means support for a Brexit that Scotland didn’t vote for, dogwhistle rhetoric that stigmatises much-needed immigration and ignoring how the people of Scotland vote.
“Decisions about Scotland should be made by those who live here and the only way to finally rid Scotland of Westminster Tory governments we don't for is independence. The only guarantee with a Westminster Labour government is the Tory government that always follows it.
"The sooner Scottish Labour accepts that - and stops their Trumpian denial of democracy - the better their chances of being taken seriously by the electorate in Scotland.”
Scottish Labour was contacted for comment.
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