CLEARLY, the First Minister isn’t quite as superstitious as me. I’m the type who doesn’t like to tempt fate. There’s always that shuddersome sense when you speculate about the future - especially around something negative - that Lady Luck might be listening and think, “okay then, you asked for it”.

Nicola Sturgeon is also an astute woman - one of the best political operators around, regardless of what you think of her government - so it was surprising to hear her venture this week that she might not lead the SNP into the next Holyrood election. She knows that will trigger wild speculation among her peers, the press and public. So let’s speculate: what was she up to?

Evidently, while chatting on stage at the Edinburgh Festival, she made clear her “default position” is to “fight the next election” - but significantly, she did also say she’d “make a judgement” on leading the SNP at the 2026 Holyrood vote “nearer the time”.

Get this analysis directly to your inbox by signing up to The Herald's political newsletter, Unspun, for FREE and unrivalled political analysis in your inbox every day at 6pm.

Sign up here.

Now, firstly, it’s refreshing that a politician is relatively honest about their plans for the future. But politicians don’t say things for the hell of it. When they speak - listen, as they probably mean it. We’ve learned that the hard way of late.

Sturgeon did knock down the idea that she was planning to take “some grand international job”. So let’s believe her on that. She also said that the job of First Minister requires someone who’s “got the appetite” and is “prepared to make the enormous commitment” leading Scotland demands.

Perhaps, Sturgeon really is feeling the weight of the job. Who could blame her? She’s been FM long enough, and post-pandemic, anyone would be exhausted. Interestingly, she also said “politicians that get out of touch, above themselves, very quickly get brought crashing back to earth in Scotland”.

Does Sturgeon maybe feel that she’s gone on long enough, that she’s done her best? Clearly, many would say her best isn’t good enough. This week, the attainment gap between rich and poor pupils widened - the one issue Sturgeon has staked her leadership on. Scotland’s NHS is dying on its feet; police numbers are rock bottom.

Education, health and law and order are the three key tasks of any government. Now, whether the SNP government’s failure is excusable on the grounds of Westminster funding or not, is a moot point. She’s the boss, she carries the can for poor governance. So, Sturgeon’s record isn’t impressive. Maybe, she feels this is as good as it gets - that she should quit with time to preserve her legacy.

That leaves two huge questions: firstly, who? Is there a successor - particularly one with the appeal of Sturgeon? Like her or not, and many unionists clearly don’t like her, she’s an election winner. But can whoever follows her, win as well?

Get this analysis directly to your inbox by signing up to The Herald's political newsletter, Unspun, for FREE and unrivalled political analysis in your inbox every day at 6pm.

Sign up here.

The second question is: what happens to the independence campaign? Maybe Sturgeon knows that her vow to fight the next UK election in 2025 as a de facto referendum, if the Supreme Court goes against her, is a duff idea - that she’ll lose on those grounds and thus have no alternative but to do the decent thing and quit before Scotland’s 2026 election. Was that the real subtext to her comments?

If that happens, will the Yes movement wane? Again, like her or not, Sturgeon has the common touch, she’s an eloquent debater. Who can fill those shoes?

Many hardline Yes voters moan endlessly about Sturgeon and want her gone, replaced by some populist who’ll storm the union’s barricades. Be careful what you wish for, though … because without Sturgeon, what becomes of the SNP and the Yes movement?