LET’S accept that Boris Johnson will actually go - that he won’t wait for some uptick in the polls, or some useful crisis, like Ukraine or the cost of living, deepening to such an extent that he strong-arms Tories into keeping him on as Prime Minister, thereby driving a stake through the heart of British democracy.

Let’s accept that after we suffer a few more months of his self-serving greed (he even wanted a wedding party with Carrie at Chequers, for pity’s sake), and endure a period of effectively no functioning government in Britain, and zero respect on the world’s stage, that this delinquent amoral buffoon finally departs and we get a new Tory in Number 10.

Well, what’s that mean for Scotland in terms of independence? Evidently, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has made clear that independence is all that matters to her now; she’s stated unequivocally the next election will be fought solely on the constitution if the Supreme Court does as expected and nixes her hopes of a referendum.

In truth, from the perspective of an independence supporter, circumstances are much more favourable with the Etonian Party Boy in office. He’s the number one recruiting sergeant for the Yes movement. If Sturgeon wants to get 51% of votes at the next election then Johnson would have been the best manifesto going.

If Johnson does go - and I find myself a strange bedfellow with Dominic Cummings in suspecting he won’t go - but if he does go, then the cause of independence will be damaged. Perhaps Keir Starmer manages a vote of no confidence to remove Johnson sooner rather than later (unlikely in the extreme), or in the coming weeks and months a more acceptable Tory leader emerges, losing independence its greatest bogeyman.

Now the damage won’t be irreparable: Scotland - from the perspective of the Yes movement will still languish under Tory rule - but when it comes down to it, the thoughts of Yes voters are utterly irrelevant. What matters is the views of undecideds.

Undecideds could break down one of three ways in the event of a new PM. Perhaps, they remain so thoroughly disgusted with the Tory Party for inflicting Johnson on the nation that their views on independence continue unchanged - they neither cool, nor heat up, but stay open-minded. For Yes, that’s a good position, clearly, as undecideds would still remain susceptible to persuasion from the SNP and Greens. Although the success of getting undecideds to flip to Yes is obviously dependent on effective government, which has been lacking for some considerable time at Holyrood.

The second possibility is that any new Tory PM cleans the slate and tries to govern conventionally. Now, that doesn’t appease anti-Tories, evidently, but it might slow undecideds tilting to Yes due to Tory extremism. It could also lead to another Tory election victory, leaving Sturgeon still facing an intransigent No to indyref2. Alternatively, and more likely, Johnson’s successor continues the hardline agenda, entrenching alienation in Scotland. This would play to the Yes movement, and potentially lead to Tory electoral defeat and Labour victory at Westminster.

Now with that in mind, thirdly - and more problematically - let’s imagine Labour does manage to remove Johnson early, or simply gets its act together and starts rising in the polls, promising constitutional reform, thus causing undecideds to view divisive referendums as unnecessary, as change is possible from a Starmer government.

While the war games play out differently - dependent on events - what remains clear is that Sturgeon still has no convincing or easy path to indyref2, regardless of Johnson’s fate, or possible Labour revival.