FOR all Boris Johnson’s masterful capacity to create bad headlines, there is an under-current of concern among the comrades; Keir Starmer isn’t cutting through with the public.
Last week, Labour eyebrows were raised when a poll suggested despite all the PM’s troubles - the partygate scandal, the confidence vote that showed most Tory backbenchers wanted him gone, and the continuing misery of the cost-of-living crisis – more voters thought Johnson made a better premier than Starmer would.
Not only that, the same poll gave Labour a mere two-point lead over the Conservatives; later ones more reassuringly showed 6%, 7% and 8% leads.
Angela Rayner, the deputy leader, confessed how she often told her boss to “put more welly” into his speeches, worrying how he often came across as too cold and lawyerly; he was, after all, England’s chief public prosecutor.
There was also frustration on the Opposition benches that no-drama Starmer, following the Tory confidence vote, failed to seize the opportunity to kick Johnson where it hurts during PMQs.
One unnerved shadow minister told the FT: “Keir’s just not making any impact at all. During the pandemic we gave him the benefit of the doubt because it’s hard for the Opposition to get cut-through in a crisis. But he can’t hide behind that now. The fact is that he just lacks the common touch.”
Another recent survey of voters’ opinions showed the adjective most pinned on the Labour leader was “boring”. Indeed, Opposition frontbenchers were said to have complained that Keir was “boring voters to death”. Oh dear.
This, naturally, angered the Labour knight and led him to tell colleagues to stop the negative briefing. “What’s boring,” he snapped, “is being in opposition.”
A this week’s Commons ritual ding-dong, it was noticeable how Starmer tried to appear more animated, making quips about Star Wars and Love Island at Boris’s expenses. However, the jokes fell flat, leaving Johnson buoyed. He’s now said to be in “King Kong mode”.
Since becoming Labour leader two years ago, Keir has pulled his party back towards the centre ground after the failed Corbynite experiment, stressing his pro-Union, pro-nuclear deterrent and pro-monarchy credentials.
This seems to have gone down well in those crucial northern England’s “red-wall” seats, which helped give Johnson his 80-seat post-election Commons majority. One snapshot gave Labour a 10-point lead in these constituencies.
Opposition sources are also confident things are finally looking up in Scotland.
Earlier this month, a poll found Anas Sarwar, the soft-edged Scottish Labour champion, was now more popular than Nicola Sturgeon. Other snapshots have shown Labour pulling ahead of the Scottish Tories into second place with regards to both Westminster and Holyrood.
This week, Starmer had a “very encouraging” meeting with Labour’s Scottish parliamentary group at Westminster.
The suggestion is the Labour knight will seek to put extended powers for Holyrood within a UK framework, which will also involve more powers for Wales and the regions of England on things like tax, transport and economic development.
The big idea will be decentralisation away from London and, within a Scottish context, more powers for local authorities across Scotland.
I’m told some form of interim report on Gordon Brown’s major constitutional review of UK governance for Labour is set for publication soon, possibly before Westminster’s summer recess in mid-July but certainly before the party’s September conference in Liverpool. The full Montgomery is likely to appear next spring.
Senior Scottish Labour figures met separately this week to stock-take and have been encouraged by that recent polling.
One senior figure explained: “There is now a feeling at last there is momentum within Scottish Labour. Keir will be up in Scotland soon. He’s working very well with Anas. Sturgeon’s clearly in trouble; she’s getting desperate.”
The Leader of the Opposition has previously said that without strong gains in Scotland, he will not get into Downing St. Labour has just one Scottish MP. Tony Blair got into power with a 9% swing; to form a majority government, Starmer needs one of…13%.
His Herculean task is now two-fold.
Firstly, to come up with a policy platform that is distinctive and credible, creating a clear vision of where Britain would be heading under a Labour government.
New Labour’s sultan of spin, Lord Mandelson has called for the party to “raise its sights” and “accelerate” policy development to “turn the intellectual tide”. In other words, to win the battle of ideas.
Secondly, to show passion as well as compassion in his leadership. The days of giving the appearance of being a bank manager as a prerequisite for getting into Number 10 are long gone. A deal of personality and being media-genic are now vital to help win over voters.
This coming week will see the results of the Wakefield and Tiverton by-elections; expected to swing to Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively.
But the timing hasn’t been propitious for Starmer. It will be the week of widespread rail disruption with Labour frontbenchers sending mixed signals; some have backed the strikes, others have opposed them. Starmer finally came out against.
Andy Burnham, the Manchester mayor and seen by some as Keir’s natural successor, made an unhelpful intervention, saying: “I don’t think Labour politicians should fall into the trap of criticising workers that are fighting for their incomes in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis.”
Expect the Tories to play the strike card big this week in the hope of clinging onto the Devon seat.
Of course, the fate of the Labour leader and his deputy now rests with the Durham constabulary. The duo have made clear they will resign if they are found to have - like Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak - broken the Covid law.
Chances are Starmer and Rayner will escape censure.
But given the nagging doubts about the leader’s performance, there might be some comrades who think it might not be a bad thing if he doesn’t and they have the chance over summer to elect a new chief to take on the Conservatives’ King Kong.
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