MOST Scots believed there was a mandate for a second independence referendum after the last Holyrood election, researchers have found.
The independent Scottish Election Survey found 55 per cent of decided voters considered there was a mandate based on a neutral question, with even a question slanted against the SNP producing a 53% majority backing a mandate.
The findings are revealed in a new blog for the Survey written by Christopher Carman, Professor of Politics at the University of Glasgow.
He said that “on balance, the SNP Government can have some confidence that a mandate existed following the 2021 elections”.
However he added it was unclear if the SNP had held on to it.
In response to Nicola Sturgeon launching a fresh drive for independence this week, Prof Carman said the Survey could offer no opinion on the legality of her holding Indyref2 without Westminster’s consent.
However the public’s view on whether she had a mandate to do so was more clear cut.
At the 2021 Holyrood election, the SNP won 64 of the 129 seats and the Greens eight, giving the two pro-independence parties a total of 72, or 56 per cent, of the chamber.
In its post-election survey, the researchers asked respondents “if they thought the election result granted a mandate to pursue a second independence referendum”.
Three different questions were put to three groups each of more than 1,100 people.
The first “neutral” question was: “There is a lot of talk about whether there is a mandate for another independence referendum. Which of these comes closest to your view about whether the May 6th election delivered a mandate?”
In response 26% said there was definitely a mandate, 29% said there probably was, 20% said there probably wasn’t and 25% said there definitely wasn’t, or 55% to 45% overall.
The second question was based on the idea of the SNP “falling short”
It asked: ““The SNP won the election but didn’t get a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament. There is a lot of talk about whether this means there is a mandate for another independence referendum. Which of these comes closest to your view about whether the May 6th election delivered a mandate?”
Despite downplaying the SNP’s win, this still produced a result of 53% saying there definitely or probably was a mandate, compared to 47% saying there definitely or probably wasn’t.
The final question played up the pro-independence majority and asked: ““Pro-independence parties won a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament. There is a lot of talk about whether this means there is a mandate for another independence referendum. Which of these comes closest to your view about whether the May 6th election delivered a mandate?”
This produced a result of 61% saying there definitely or probably was a mandate compared to 39% saying there probably or definitely wasn’t.
Prof Carman wrote: “Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).
“Not surprisingly, people who said they would vote Yes in a second independence referendum resoundingly believed there was a clear mandate. But, somewhere between 7-11% of them had their doubts.
“Amongst No voters, those receiving the neutral prompt saw grounds for a mandate (24%); with the SNP fell short prompt, 22% said there was a mandate; and with the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt 33% – a full third – said there was a mandate for a second independence referendum.
“Perhaps the group to be most interested in, though, are those people who might be up for grabs in a future referendum campaign – those who say they do not know how they would vote.
“Whilst not as emphatic as Yes supporters, the Don’t Knows also clearly supported the idea of there being a mandate for a second independence referendum.
“Under the three conditions, 62% (neutral), 63% (SNP fell short) and 69% (pro-indy majority) affirmed that a mandate exists for a second independence referendum.
“If whether a government actually has a mandate depends on whether they do in the eye of the public – and not in the eye of the politicians arguing their position in the media – then it would seem that, on balance, the SNP Government can have some confidence that a mandate existed following the 2021 elections.
“Of course, given that it was just over a majority of the public that was positively disposed to say the SNP Government held a mandate after the election, what we don’t know is to what extent the SNP has held and can hold on to their mandate.”
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