A SENIOR Tory minister doesn’t think a confidence vote against Boris Johnson will materialise this week but has insisted the PM will see off any fight.

Grant Shapps, the UK Transport Secretary, came out in support of the Prime Minister amid reports a crunch vote by Conservative MP on his premiership could take place as early as Wednesday.

Under Conservative Party rules, if 54 letters of no confidence in Mr Johnson’s leadership are submitted to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories, then a leadership vote will be held.

The Sunday Times said it had been told as many as 67 letters had gone in which, if correct, would mean the threshold has been reached.

The rebels would need 180 voters to remove the Prime Minister – with one backbencher telling the paper that up to 190 Tory MPs could vote against him.

New polling suggests the Conservatives risk losing a key electoral test later this month by a significant margin.

A survey of voters in the battleground constituency of Wakefield who will go to the polls on June 23 to elect a new MP has suggested the Tories could lose the by-election by as much as 20 points.

A by-election will be held on the same day in Tiverton and Honiton, which was called after Tory MP Neil Parish resigned over his viewing of pornography in the Commons.

Asked about the poll on BBC’s Sunday Morning programme, Mr Shapps said: “I think actually the best thing to do with all elections is to allow the people to speak and do so at the ballot box.

“You often get polls which show a variety of different situations.”

Asked if the Prime Minister will “be out” if the Conservatives lose both seats, Mr Shapps said: “No. Look … when it comes to a general election people look at Government and they look at it in the round, they look at what you’ve done.”

Asked if he believes there is going to be a vote of no confidence in Mr Johnson this week, Mr Shapps said: “No, I don’t … actually in the round when people judge Government by the general election, rather than mid-term where it’s not unusual to see polling like this, actually people make a decision about whether you’ve delivered and done a good for the country as a whole.

“I’m absolutely certain, with some of these huge decisions, sorting out Brexit, getting through coronavirus, seeing the largest growing economy last year, these are decisions and actions which will in the end matter to people.”

Asked if Mr Johnson would win a vote of confidence, the Transport Secretary said: “Yes, he will.”

Wakefield constituency polling by JL Partners and reported in The Sunday Times is putting Labour on 48 points compared with 28 points for the Conservatives – a 19-point slip on the winning Tory performance two-and-a-half years ago.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners and a former Downing Street pollster during Theresa May’s tenure, said the so-called partygate saga looked to have damaged the Tory reputation among Red Wall voters.

The polling expert said the top reason swing voters in the West Yorkshire seat – who are voting for a candidate to succeed former Tory incumbent Imran Ahmad Khan after he was found guilty of sexually assaulting a boy – gave for preferring Labour was because “Boris Johnson tried to cover up partygate, and lied to the public”.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan, meanwhile, has suggested the Metropolitan Police’s rationale for fining people during the related police investigation looks “odd” when taking into consideration the pictures published in the Sue Gray report.

His comments come after he wrote to Scotland Yard asking for “a more detailed and formal explanation” of how decisions were made during the Operation Hillman inquiry.

“I accept it does look odd in relation to the photographs we’ve now seen, in relation to the knowledge we now have of who received a fixed-penalty notice and who didn’t,” Mr Khan told the BBC’s Sunday Morning programme.

Asked about a court challenge facing the Met’s partygate probe, Mr Khan added: “What we don’t want is the perception to be given that it is one rule for them, the rule-makers, and one rule for the rest of us.

“What I’ve not seen and what Lord Paddick (a former Met police deputy assistant commissioner) will maybe see in the court case is the evidence for each individual case.

“I’ve just seen the one photograph we saw in relation to Boris Johnson raising his glass – clearly a party atmosphere. I’ve not seen the responses to the questionnaires or the other photographs. That’s why it is right and proper for the court case to go ahead and for this to be looked into.”