Scots would vote for independence if a referendum was held tomorrow, a former Tory MSP has said.
Adam Tomkins, Professor of Public Law at the University of Glasgow, said that the “unspeakable truth” for Unionists is that a vote to break up the UK would see a victory for the ‘Yes’ side because of shifting demographics, with young voters favouring independence.
Writing exclusively in The Herald, Prof Tomkins — Conservative MSP for Glasgow region between 2016 and 2021 — said that the margin of victory for the Yes side would be similar to that of the Leave campaign in the Brexit referendum, which saw the UK vote to exit the EU by 52% to 48%
However, he cautioned that the result would be “brutal and ugly and horrible”, with the SNP having failed to prepared the economy for the shocks which would ensue.
He also predicted that a ‘Yes’ result would be a “disaster” for Scotland and the UK, but said that voters would opt to leave because of Brexit, for Covid mismanagement, for failing to reform” and for callous disregard and corruption in government.
But the former politician also believes that a referendum is unlikely as it will not be granted by Westminster in the foreseeable future, leaving the SNP little option with regards to holding a poll.
Prof Tomkins also said that Scotland the rest of the UK are now in a “phoney war”, where both sides know the real battle is not going to happen soon.
He writes: “The 2014 referendum relied on Westminster giving its consent. It was this consent which underpinned the legality of the 2014 referendum and, this time around, it is perfectly plain that such consent is going to be withheld.
Everybody knows this. The First Minister knows it. Her government know it. Holyrood knows it. You know it. And yet the pretence goes on that there is somehow, none the less, going to be a second independence referendum on the First Minister’s preferred timetable of a date to be confirmed in 2023. There is not.”
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