EXPECTATIONS are rising that, as fears of a recession loom, Boris Johnson is planning to unveil a grand giveaway to placate disgruntled voters and maximise his chances of staying in Downing St.

But the PM is presently giving a fine impression of the Wizard of Oz, a politician not in control of events but at the mercy of them, frantically pulling levers behind the scenes to no great effect and scrambling around to find something, anything, that could pour sunshine onto Britain’s gloom-laden landscape.

The latest move came today with the UK Government deciding to freeze NHS prescription charges in England to “put money back in people’s pockets”. It will save patients £17 million.

It quickly follows a decision to delay by a year a ban on buy-one-get-one-free deals for unhealthy food products due to the “unprecedented” squeeze on living standards.

Not surprisingly, health campaigners were not very happy but the industry was and welcomed the Government’s “pragmatism”. Labour agreed with the former, saying: “Boris Johnson’s desperation to cling onto his job means the ideology of Conservative MPs is being placed above children’s health.”

This week, Rishi Sunak acknowledged Britain was living through “anxious times” as the latest figures showed the economy grew by 0.8% in Q1 but, worryingly, in March shrank by 0.1% as people cut back.

Chances are Q2 will see an overall fall, so, technically, a recession could be announced when the figures are confirmed for Q3. These will come in October, which just happens to be when energy prices lurch upwards again, inflation could reach double figures, the Conservative Party conference takes place and when the autumn Budget is due.

The Bank of England is warning the country faces a "sharp economic slowdown". But it’s already happening. This Wednesday official figures are expected to show inflation hitting 8% or higher.

Johnson insisted the Government could not spend its way out of trouble but needed to grow its way out. But, as the numbers suggest, chances are high the economy, through the latter part of this year, will fall backwards.

The PM has convened two brain-storming Cabinets, urging colleagues to “go faster” and be “as creative as possible” in coming up with ideas to ease the squeeze.

Yet, thus far, the suggestions have not been inspiring. Delaying MoTs for a year, for example, and now Boris wants to axe 90,000 civil service jobs, which trade unions are warning could spark a national strike.

“We have got to cut the cost of Government to reduce the cost of living,” declared Johnson, suggesting the billions saved could be used for tax cuts; two words that are music to Conservative ears.

Jake Berry, the Northern Research Group MP, claimed that in private chats with Tory colleagues, Boris had shown “more than a little bit of ankle” over the prospect of tax cuts.

Meanwhile, business leaders are calling for the recently introduced National Insurance increase to be put off until at least the next financial year while Labour wants it scrapped altogether.

Its leader Keir Starmer branded Tuesday’s Queen’s Speech “pathetic” for not doing anything to immediately tackle the cost-of-living crisis while Nicola Sturgeon called for less talk and more action from Whitehall to help people mitigate rising prices, noting how there was “nothing in the Speech that would actually deliver that”.

So going forward, what are Boris’s options? The chatter this week among nervous Conservative politicians at Westminster has been about how the PM is eyeing an early general election.

The thinking goes that the cost-of-living crisis is going to linger for some time and fuel prices, not helped by the ongoing war in Ukraine, are likely to be volatile for many months.

In other words, the economic uncertainty could be with us through the next two years and get worse before it gets better. Which does not present a great backdrop to the scheduled General Election in May 2024.

Having rejected calls for an emergency summer Budget, via the strangely animated language from a wobble-headed Michael Gove, the Government is now looking to the autumn Budget to unveil an expected wave of largesse.

The Chancellor has made clear that he is "ready to do more" but without elaborating. Sunak as well as Johnson have been shifting the tone on a windfall tax on the energy giants; ruling it out one day and not ruling it out the next.

The PM, intrinsically against a windfall tax, conceded “we’ll have to look at it” after BP chief Bernard Looney said his investment plans would not be affected by one. The Chancellor has supposedly ordered his officials to draw up a plan.

Alok Sharma, the COP26 President, told The Herald he too was personally against retrospective taxes but seconds later used Downing St’s new buzz-word, “pragmatism,” to insist it was wise to keep all options on the table. The constructive ambiguity continues.

Options do include a tax cut or two and turning the £200 loan to help with rising energy costs into a grant.

Under questioning the PM made clear there would be more support “coming down the track” in “July and so on”. July will see the tax cut on National Insurance, supposedly worth around £330 for many people. The “and so on” points to the autumn.

But how does Boris and co benefit from an October giveaway if the election is still 18 months away?

Two options are being talked about. One, the autumn Budget is quickly followed by the election. Two, Sunak enacts his giveaway in two parts; in October and then in April before a May 2023 poll.

The war-gaming will be going on in the Downing St bunker and no final decision is likely to be made – to go long or short – until Boris’s summer break at Chequers.

The Johnson Government in this Parliament has set a world record for screeching U-turns but a desperately worried premier, having previously ruled out going to the country early, might now be anxiously considering triggering the biggest one of all.