A disunited France today goes to the polling stations to choose its new or not so new president but as voters in many cases hold their noses, Europe will be holding its breath.
A remarkable intervention ahead of the vote underlined people’s fears that the very future of the European Union could be at stake. In a joint article in Le Monde, the leaders of Germany, Spain and Portugal issued a stark warning to French voters and urged them to back Centrist Emmanuel Macron.
In a direct attack on his rival, Marine Le Pen, they highlighted her previous links to the tyrant in the Kremlin, saying people should not forget “populists and the Far Right in all our countries have made Vladimir Putin an ideological and political model…even if these politicians are now trying to distance themselves from the Russian aggressor”.
They added: “It is a choice between a democratic candidate, who believes France is stronger in a powerful and autonomous EU and a Far Right candidate, who openly sides with those who attack our freedom and democracy; fundamental values that come directly from the French Enlightenment.”
Macron, fiercely pro-EU, wants to strengthen the 27-member bloc while Le Pen, although she has ditched her Frexit ambitions, wants the EU to become more of an association of nation states.
The Far-Right leader proposes a cut in France’s financial contribution to the Brussels’ budget, limiting freedom of movement of workers across the Schengen area and wants French law to take precedence over EU law.
Macron told Le Pen her plan was Frexit in all but name. “Your project is a project that does not dare speak its name but which consists in leaving Europe. You’re lying.”
Given the number of disaffected voters, Macron and Le Pen have been nuancing some policies to appeal to a greater audience.
One of the incumbent’s contentious proposals has been to raise the state pension age to 65. His opponent branded it a “deep social injustice,” meaning people would “end up with a life sentence”.
Not surprisingly, Macron sought to water down his plan to placate the nearly eight million voters who cast their first vote for the Socialist leader Jean-Luc Melenchon by making clear he would consult with the trade unions before a final decision.
He might have his work cut out as one poll suggested 48% of those who voted for the ultra-Corbynite leader in the first round said they wouldn’t support either candidate in the run-off.
Branded an arrogant elitist, the “President of the rich” has sought to insist he cares about the concerns of ordinary folk, pledging to improve public services.
For her part, Le Pen, who has spent the years since her 2017 defeat, carefully softening her image, has focused her campaign on the cost-of-living crisis, promising to cut VAT on fuel and food.
Yet her plans on immigration, including holding a referendum to curb in-comer numbers, remains deeply controversial.
Wednesday’s three-hour TV head-to-head was an acrimonious affair and illustrated the two very different visions for France’s future.
Macron was, naturally, keen to raise Russia, and by association the war in Ukraine, and went for the jugular, accusing the National Rally leader of being in Putin’s pocket. “You speak to your banker when you speak to Russia,” he declared. Le Pen’s party still owes almost £8m it borrowed from a Kremlin-linked bank in 2015.
The President also lashed out at his opponent’s plan to prohibit women from publicly wearing the hijab, telling her it was a “treason against French values”.
Le Pen hit back, accusing him of “dishonesty”. She said: “Everyone knows I am absolutely a free woman and a patriot who defends the interests of France.”
A snapshot after the TV face-off suggested a majority found Macron the most convincing. However, just 15m people tuned in, the lowest number since the set-piece event began in 1974.
While Le Pen has been faring better in opinion polls, the final snapshots have suggested she remains some way behind Macron, who has a healthy 13-point lead.
And yet, the incumbent’s main fear is mass abstentions, which could let his opponent in through the Elysee Palace’s back-door; a quarter of the electorate didn’t bother to vote in the first round. Polls have suggested that turnout could be the lowest since 1969.
Hence, Macron has spent the final days of campaigning wooing left-wing voters, promising to do more for poorer communities.
During the last hours on the stump, both contenders launched their final barbs.
Macron, 44, insisting he was the unity candidate, declared: “The Far Right lives off fear and anger creating resentment. It says that excluding parts of society is the answer. I want to try to answer it[and] make us live as a united nation.”
Le Pen, insisting she was the change candidate, denounced the President’s “condescension and arrogance,” and saying the choice was “Macron or France.” She denounced his “failed” five-year term as the “rampage that was Emmanuel Macron”.
Should the 53-year-old become France’s first female president, the shockwaves from such a political earthquake would extend far beyond Europe. The Far Right leader wants France, the biggest military force in the EU, to remove itself from Nato’s command structure.
Given her past fondness for Putin, no doubt the Russian leader would be smiling broadly should she manage, against the odds, to pull it off. US President Joe Biden, meantime, would be aghast.
What the 2022 campaign has shown is how bitterly divided France is. Whoever punches the air at 8pm, when the exit poll is published, will have a job of work to do to unite the republic.
While all the snapshots thus far have pointed to another Macron victory - albeit narrower than the one in 2017 – in his final campaign event the President warned against complacency, pointing to the Brexit referendum, where polls pointed one way but, because not enough pro-EU supporters turned out, the UK voted the other way.
“The next day,” he warned, “they woke up with a hangover."
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