AN ELECTORAL expert has warned that the Conservatives risk slumping to third place in Scotland following next month’s local elections – insisting the decline could lead to “further fragmentation of the political voice of unionism”.

In the 2017 Scottish local elections, the Conservatives secured second place behind the SNP, but ahead of Labour. The party, under Ruth Davidson’s leadership, more than doubled the number of elected councillors - taking the total to 276.

But Professor John Curtice from Strathclyde University has warned that polls have consistently shown over the last few months that Labour are set to replace them as the second biggest party in Scotland at the May 5 election.

Speaking on BBC Good Morning Scotland, Professor Curtice said that “it’s been clear for some time that the Conservatives may well be struggling to retain the second place they have north of the Border”.

He said: “The Conservatives were always defending a difficult set of elections north of the Border, simply because five years ago, they did so remarkably well.

“They got 25 per cent of the first preference vote, they clearly came second and it was just a few weeks later when the party reached its high water mark in the 2017 general election – helping to save Theresa May’s premiership albeit in a hung parliament.”

Professor Curtice added: “They were always defending a really high baseline and the truth is, the polls north of the Border, really since last autumn, have been consistently showing Labour running in second place, the Conservatives in third.”

The polling expert warned that Conservative support potentially falling away could have an impact on any future campaign for Scottish indpendence.

He said: “If that were to happen it would be the first time since 2016 that the Conservatives have not been the principle political voice of unionism north of the Border.

“Perhaps at some point we are going to be having another debate and argument about holding another referendum and possibly having another referendum campaign.

“The further fragmentation of the political voice of unionism north of the Border is not necessarily something that either Douglas Ross or the Prime Minister would want to encounter.”

Other parties including Labour and the SNP have been keen to label Boris Johnson as toxic to the electorate in the run up to polling day, as he continues to face calls to resign after being hit with a fixed penalty notice by the police for his role in the partygate scandal surrounded the Tories at Westminster.

Professor Curtice said that “a lot of the damage to its electoral standing and indeed the Prime Minister’s popularity is already baked into the figures” in the polls.

He added: “Partygate never disappeared from many people’s feelings about how they might vote in the next election, even if it did fall out of the headlines during February and during the beginning of the Ukraine crisis.”

Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross who is also an MP at Westminster, has defied an order by party bosses to turn up at the House of Commons today to support Mr Johnson and is instead focusing on the local election campaign.

Mr Ross has faced an almighty backlash after initially calling for the PM to quit over partygate before performing a U-turn on his position, claiming the war in Ukraine was too important for a change in leader.

Professor Curtice said: “Mr Ross is an interesting case in point. My understanding is that he is indeed one of those MPs, remember he is still an MP, who has decided that campaigning for the local elections is a better use of his time today than is turning up in the House of Commons to back the Prime Minister.

“Although he’s not saying the Prime Minster should go at the present time, he’s not evidently thinking it’s worth the trip to London to try and help save the Prime Minister’s position.”