THE first rule of politics: don’t get found out. This week, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak did so in spectacular fashion. Both are now heavily damaged politicians.
Indeed, the Teflon Chancellor has had a very sticky time of late, from the negative fall-out to his Spring Statement through the controversy about his wife’s tax status to now having a brush with the law over partygate. For the first time, one poll put Sunak’s net rating lower than the PM’s, which is saying something.
Boris, meantime, having endured weeks of negative headlines has, thus far, had a good war, politically speaking, winning praise for leading the diplomatic charge against Putin and for visiting Kyiv.
Sunak was reportedly on the verge of resigning after receiving his £50 fine but, after hours of mulled silence and an intense chat with Boris, issued an “unreserved apology,” stressing how he was “focused on delivering for the British people”.
Of course, by being fined and staying put, the Chancellor has done his Downing Street neighbour – the first PM to have broken the law while in office – a massive favour, cushioning the political flak falling on Johnson.
If Sunak had resigned, the pressure for Boris to follow suit would have been irresistible. The last thing the Tory Party and its MPs would want, especially ahead of elections, would be to lose their two most senior politicians in one fell swoop. So, for now, Boris is off the hook but he’s still swimming in dangerous waters, because the Met’s probe isn’t over.
Having investigated 12 “social gatherings,” the police have so far issued fines relating to just three. None has been issued for the get-together in Johnson’s flat on the day when Dominic Cummings dramatically departed Downing Street.
Among the recipients of the 50 fines given out are Carrie Johnson, the PM’s wife, and Helen MacNamara, former head of propriety and ethics in Whitehall. Naturally.
Whitehall sources suggest Johnson could be fined three more times. If so, his carefully-scripted reasoning for why he inadvertently attended his birthday bash would melt away and expose him for the hypocrite that he is.
Yet Simon Hart, the Welsh Secretary, nonchalantly insisted that his boss would not quit even if he got more fixed-penalty notices. “It doesn’t make a lot of difference whether it’s one or three,” he said.
However, officers have been poring over 500 documents and 300 photographs. Once the investigation ends, many of these will become public, possibly by dint of Sue Gray’s full report.
The Conservative parliamentary party has come to a collective survivalist view: given the circumstances in Ukraine, now is not the time to ditch the pilot, however egregious his wrongdoings. To do so, would, it believes, hand a victory to the tyrant in the Kremlin and destabilise Nato.
Following the PM’s partygate fine, just two Tory MPs have added their names to those calling for him to go now.
Thus far, the Cabinet has remained rigidly loyal. Hours after the news of the fines broke, Boris held a virtual Cabinet meeting to stiffen colleagues’ resolve.
The first and, so far, only crack in the Government façade came when the little-known Lord Wolfson, the junior Justice Minister, and a QC, quit, saying Johnson’s “repeated rule-breaking” during lockdown was “inconsistent with the rule of law”.
The rule of law used to be a pillar of Conservatism. Most people, I suspect, still believe law-makers should not be law-breakers. As the May local elections near, Tory MPs will start gathering behind the Commons sofa, fearful of the retribution the public will unleash. The poll could be disastrous for the Conservatives, particularly if more partygate revelations emerge.
“Each one of these will come as a hammer into the nail of the Tory coffin. And what the PM is doing is implicating all the MPs in this,” declared one disgruntled backbencher, adding: “We are in a long, slow death march.”
The second rule of politics: when in a hole, stop digging.
Last year, Douglas Ross bravely put his head above the parapet and called for Johnson to quit over partygate. But then the Scottish Conservative leader lowered it again and withdrew his resignation call because ousting the PM now would “destabilise” the UK’s response to Putin’s war in Ukraine. However, following the PM’s partygate fine, Ross, asked if Boris was a truthful man, replied: “Yes,” but went on to accept that Johnson’s claim that all Covid rules had been observed in Number 10 was “clearly not” true. Consistency has its merits.
His predecessor, Ruth Davidson, who unequivocally believes the PM should resign, expressed sympathy for Ross, saying he had been put in a “terrible position” over partygate. The Tory peer insisted Johnson’s continuation in Downing Street meant the office of Prime Minister was being “traduced”.
The third rule of politics: keep calm and carry on. When faced with an unmitigated calamity, unleash something to distract the fickle media’s gaze. It seems such a happy coincidence that Boris, during Westminster’s Easter recess, should unveil his highly contentious plan to ship male asylum-seekers 4,000 miles on a one-way trip to Rwanda.
When pressed on partygate yesterday, he went into deflection mode, telling reporters to have patience as he would “set the record straight in any way I can” next Tuesday when MPs return from their Easter break. Things could get lively.
However, the more the likes of Starmer, Sturgeon and Davey call for his resignation, the more the PM’s instinct is to double down and plough on through the flak, particularly in the midst of crises at home and abroad. Chances are, without the Ukraine war, he’d already be a goner.
However, both Johnson and Sunak are damaged goods and the Tories know it. More importantly, the public know it.
The clocking is now ticking on both their futures. Midnight could come sooner than they think.
* Our columns are a platform for writers to express their opinions. They do not necessarily represent the views of The Herald
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