THE 2017 council election in Glasgow was a landmark victory for the SNP and the ultimate humiliation Labour which had held power in the city for almost 40 years.

Five years on and Scotland has changed, hit by a global pandemic, a war in Europe, Brexit and a cost of living crisis.

Scottish Labour, is now headed by Glasgow MSP Anas Sarwar, and is determined to win back the country's largest local authority. However, polling suggests a Labour triumph is unlikely.

A survey conducted by Survation at the end of March showed the SNP on course for record wins across Scotland with 44 per cent of voters giving it their first preference, up from 32 per cent in 2017.

The forecast also found Labour may take second place nationally and gain seats in individual councils with 23 per cent of voters backing the party, five per cent ahead of the Tories.

READ MORE: Susan Aitken: Labour are very foolish to rule out a deal with the SNP

Experts have said the shift, however slight, away from constitutional politics, could in part explain why there has been a boost for Labour which has found itself squeezed in successive elections since the 2014 referendum between the pro independence SNP and the Tories, who have presented themselves as the main Unionist party.

The Herald:

Cllr Susan Aitken (SNP, Langside), leader of Glasgow City Council pictured in Pollokshaws in the Southside of Glasgow where she was canvassing voters ahead of the council elections on May 5th...Photograph by Colin Mearns.8 April 2022.

The party also appeared to have benefited from falling support for the Conservatives amid the long running Partygate scandal which last week finally saw Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak each fined for breaking lockdown laws.

But polling ahead of the 2017 election was just as high for the SNP but support failed to materialise to the level forecast on the day suggesting it may be unwise to predict local voting intention via national trends. The Survation poll also carried a warning for both the SNP and the Tories.

Allan Faulds from Ballot Box Scotland, which commissioned the Survation survey, noted: "Whilst the SNP and Conservatives have solid first preference support, they were picked relatively rarely for later preferences, whereas the other three Holyrood parties [Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems] were popular transfer options. This perhaps suggests the parties most rigidly defined by the constitution are putting off voters in the middle.” 

READ MORE: Susan Aitken: I will step down from leading SNP council group if we lose in May

Is this appeal to win back both disillusioned Tory and SNP voters enough to put Labour in the running to again win in Glasgow?

Malcolm Cunning, the Labour group leader on Glasgow city council, told The Herald on Sunday his party does have a realistic chance of victory in two and a half weeks.

Fielding 43 candidates across 23 wards, Labour has focused its campaign on pledges to "clean up the city". It has vowed to spend £6 million into creating a "cleaner, greener" Glasgow, promising to recruit 250 more refuse workers and recruit a "cleansing tsar" if they  if take control of the council.

The Herald:

Labour Cathcart council ward candidate Malcolm Cunning campaigns in Old Cathcart. Photo Gordon Terris April 6, 2022.

Councillor Cunning blamed the SNP for rubbish piling up and overflowing bins and said many voters share his view.

"I have absolutely no doubt there are people who are saying Glasgow is a mess, whether its rubbish in the streets, the state of our parks, that it has particularly become so in the last four or five years and that the SNP are responsible," he said.

He argued Mr Sarwar's pro-UK views have helped to win back support from former Labour voters who moved to the Conservatives in 2017 perceiving Labour under Jeremy Corbyn's UK leadership as "weak" on the Union, while on the other side of Scotland's constitutional divide he said former Labour voters who have backed the SNP in recent elections are now returning to his party.

"I think there is a generally softening of the SNP vote and there is also a Glasgow effect," he said.

Labour won 31 seats in Glasgow compared to 39 for the SNP with the parties taking 41 per cent and 30 per cent in first preference vote share.

The Scottish Conservatives gained seven seats to take eight including some unexpected victories in Shettleston and Calton, some of Glasgow's most deprived areas in the east of the city.

Cunning explained that Labour has ten target wards, fighting to win a second seat in areas such as Calton, Shettleston, Govan and Linn, while holding onto the two it currently has in other areas such as Canal.

"I am utterly convinced that balance will shift," he said.

"I think it is perfectly feasible that Labour will end up as the largest party in Glasgow. I am absolutely certain we will gain seats. There are a number of areas where we only have one councillor at the moment and I am confident we will win two."

SNP council leader Susan Aitken and her colleague Ricky Bell, the city treasurer, did not agree. 

The SNP are campaigning to win in Glasgow on May 5 ideally returning to power as a majority administration rather than as a minority as they have done since 2017. It has not ruled out a coalition with the Greens or with Labour.

Councillor Aitken listed achievements the administration has made over the past five years including the best set of results for school leavers in terms of destinations into further or higher education, training or work (exceeding the national average for the first time), new schools, parks and green spaces, improvements to social care and a transformation in services to the homeless.

She also underlined record level of investments since 2017, such as a new Barclays complex, which will create 2500 new jobs (including 300 which will be reserved for people from some of the city's most deprived backgrounds), hosting the COP26 climate change conference last November and securing the World Athletics championship for 2024 and hosting the world cycling championships next year. Both of the major international sporting events will bring considerable investment into the city, she said.

The council chief underlined the partial resolution to the equal pay legal dispute with a compensation deal worth £500million to thousands of women employees who had been historically discriminated against by being paid less than men in similarly skilled roles. To pay for the compensation the council had to remortgage major venues. Thousands of more claims have yet to be resolved with more buildings being considered for remortgaging to finance the settlements.

Councillor Bell praised Councillor Aitken for making it her mission to tackle the long running and difficult dispute while both blame the previous Labour administrations for not resolving the case sooner, which would have meant less cost to the council.

"In the run up to the 2017 elections, when I said it was our intention to take on and settle Frank McAveety [the Labour council leader] said 'ridiculous. It's not possible. You'll bankrupt the council and there isn't any discrimination anyway'. I am certain if Labour had been re-elected in 2017 this would still be in the courts," Councillor Aitken told The Herald on Sunday.

"I said 'we are going to do the right thing and draw a line under it'. And to do that we had to acknowledge that key groups of female dominated[parts] of our workforce had not been treated fairly." Councillor Cunning has insisted Labour would have resolved the dispute had it been re-elected.

Councillor Aitken highlighted a recent analysis which named Glasgow as the most resilient city in the UK in terms of economic activity in the wake of lockdowns, but stressed the pandemic had hit the city, its people and council services hard.

She acknowledged rubbish was a problem. By way of explanation she said that the cleansing service workforce had been severely affected during the Covid crisis and that work was being undertaken as a priority to make the city clean and tidy.

Pressed on Councillor Cunning's points about "messy Glasgow", she said: "During the pandemic there was probably an element of truth in that...Labour talk about things as if we didn't have a global pandemic for two years, which saw reductions in our workforce at various points of almost 50 per cent. And our cleansing workforce was one of our hardest hit."

She said that the high level of staff absence meant that street cleansers were switched to emptying bins at various points, while the graffiti removal service also had to be suspended for a short time.

Her administration had never "dismissed" the rubbish problem and was working to address it with a process underway to replace old bin lorries, street and back court bins, and that new cleansing staff were being hired to work in "areas of challenge", she added.

The SNP is standing 50 candidates for Glasgow city council across all 23 wards on May 5.

It has put “tackling the cost-of living crisis, the climate emergency and recovery from the pandemic” at the heart of its strategy for the next five years. The party has pledged to further extend free school meals to all primary pupils, work to ensure more firms pay the real living wage, and build 6,500 new affordable homes while supporting the roll-out of home energy retrofit to secure greener, more efficient and more affordable energy for householders in the city.

Looking back at her record Councillor Aitken said:  "I think for all of the challenges...and this has been a rollercoaster five years, we have delivered for the city and we can point to progress and improvements in any part of the city, investments that have made genuine differences, work to put money into the pockets of the households who need it most, physical transformations, homes built, car free zones outside schools, new schools, new parks and green space."

On her hopes to the future, she added: "I think Glasgow is extremely well placed to recover well. We've got real confidence from investors in the city who are saying 'we think the city is brilliant.'"

Other parties:

THE Scottish Conservatives are standing 23 candidates in Glasgow, one in each ward.

It took eight seats in the city five years ago, including in some of the most economically deprived areas, after running a campaign focussed on opposition to independence and a second independence referendum.

This time round it is again appealing to supporters of the Union but also targeting the SNP's record, particularly on rubbish in neighbourhoods and litter on the streets.

Councillor Thomas Kerr, the Glasgow Conservative group leader and the party’s candidate in Shettleston ward, said: "The SNP administration in Glasgow have failed the city over the last five years. Our bins are overflowing, fly-tipping is out of control and far too many areas of our city are a mess.

“That is why the Glasgow Conservatives have put a fully costed, five-point plan at the heart of our campaign to clean up Glasgow. We would end three weekly bin collections, scrap the bulk uplift charge and investment millions in frontline cleansing services.

“We secured an extremely positive result in 2017 and we are looking to build on that on May 5 . The Glasgow Conservatives are the voice for Glaswegians who are sick and tired of being let down by SNP and Labour administrations.

“Susan Aitken has already talked up the prospect of the SNP teaming up with Labour, just as they already have in six other councils across Scotland.

“If you want the focus to be on your local priorities, not Nicola Sturgeon’s then you must vote Scottish Conservative in Glasgow on May 5th.”

The Scottish Greens are standing 23 candidates, the Lib Dems 22 and Alex Salmond's Alba Party are standing 11 candidates.

One of the Alba candidates Alexander Torrance said: "For the past few years Glasgow has gone backwards, families are struggling, roads are a mess, our bins are overflowing and our city centre is a shell of what it used to be and yet we continue to pay for services with no improvement. We need a party in the city chambers that stands for Glasgow.

"Alba has a five point plan to help family budgets in Glasgow. We will call for a £500 annual payment to help Every low earning household in in the City. We will demand free breakfasts and school meals for every primary and secondary school pupil in exchange for our support for council budgets. We will also move for universal free access to sports facilities across the city for people aged under 18."

The Scottish Greens and the Lib Dems are also standing candidates in Glasgow.

Results in 2017 in Glasgow:

SNP - 39 seats (up 12); 41 per cent of first preference vote

Labour - 31 seats (down 13); 30 per cent of first preference vote

Tories - 8 seats (up seven); 15 per cent of first preference vote

Greens - 7 (up three); 9 per cent of first preference vote

Lib Dems - 0 (down one); 3 per cent of first preference vote