THEY saved the worst ‘til last.
As the opinion polls on who will be France’s next President have narrowed sharply, the insults between Emmanuel Macron and his main rival, Marine Le Pen, have become more pugnacious.
On the last day of campaigning before French voters cast their first round vote today, the gloves came off.
Alarmed by his lead over Le Pen being cut to just three points - a month ago he was 12 points clear thanks to a “war bounce” - the President has hit the ropes and branded his opponent a pro-Kremlin anti-Semite. But there was worse to come for Macron.
One snapshot looked ahead to the second round run-off on April 24 and predicted he would win by just two points; in 2017 he romped home by 32. This latest forecast lead is within the margin of error. Some are, whisper it, sensing a Trump-like upset.
With the war in Ukraine continuing to dominate media headlines, Macron’s campaign team tweeted images of Le Pen and Putin with the headline “Marine Putin”. In the 2017 race for the Elysee Palace, the Russian President publicly backed her.
In an interview with Le Figaro, the 44-year-old incumbent denounced the “fundamentals of the Far Right” - rejection of the Republic, anti-Semitism, ultra-conservatism and xenophobia.
On Friday, Macron lashed out even harder, accusing the National Rally leader of “lying” to voters about her “racist” manifesto.
He also suggested Le Pen was in Putin’s pocket because she was “financially dependent” on him; her party received a loan from a Russian bank to fund its 2014 local election campaign.
For her part, Le Pen, 53, has been critical of the invasion of Ukraine. Yet, she has also insisted Putin is an ally of France and, most remarkably of all, has refused to accept Russian forces have committed atrocities in Ukraine.
Bouyed by the narrowing of the polls, she rebuffed the Macron campaign’s attacks by saying: “The French don’t believe in the bogeyman anymore.”
Le Pen denounced the President’s “outrageous” remarks, which she said proved he was panicking, telling an end-of-campaign rally, he was acting like a “stunned boxer”.
The daughter of the ex-Far Right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, her “French first” campaign has focused on voters’ concerns about the cost-of-living crisis with a promise of tax cuts. But she also wants curbs on immigrants’ access to jobs and benefits as well as a ban on the Muslim hijab in public places.
While Le Pen no longer wants Frexit, she is nonetheless calling for a cut to France’s contribution to the EU budget and an end to its adherence to laws made in Brussels.
At a final rally in Perpignan this week she called on voters to “take back control”. Sound familiar?
In her own Le Figaro interview, the Far Right candidate insisted she was “ready, personally and politically” for power, adding: “I have been working on this project for five years. It is now perfectly feasible, legally solid and financially sustainable.”
Le Pen, who has spent the years since her defeat in 2017 softening her tone and image, if not her policies, has been helped in her attempt to seem less extreme by Eric Zemmour, an even more right-wing pro-Putin anti-Islam candidate.
While there have been 12 politicians in the race for the Elysee Palace, only three have any chance of making it to the second round, Macron, Le Pen and, possibly, the Far Left’s ultra-Corbynite Jean-Luc Melenchon.
During the campaign, the President has unwisely adopted a safety-first policy because it’s his election to lose. He has been caught up in a row over hundreds of millions euros being paid to consultants over the Covid crisis. All of which has only reinforced, among some voters, his image as a detached, elitist “President for the rich”.
The ex-investment banker has visited only a few friendly places on the campaign trail, admitting he entered the fray too late because of the Ukraine crisis. Le Pen, meantime, has been touring French towns at full pelt for months.
Back in 2017, Macron’s Blairite approach worked, taking votes from Left and Right with a centrist agenda, that shook up French politics; so much so that this time round both the established Centre Left and Centre Right are polling below 10%.
Melenchon has been gaining in the opinion polls but pundits don’t think he will make the run-off, which still seems to favour Macron.
Left-wing voters won’t vote for Le Pen. They could sit on their hands and simply curse both houses. But this would risk Le Pen getting in. So, however reluctantly, many on the Left will hold their noses and vote for Macron.
Intriguingly, having wooed the Centre Right, the President in the latter stages of the campaign has woken up to the Le Pen threat and been wooing the Centre Left with a pledge to help voters cope with rising petrol and electricity prices.
Another danger for the centrist candidate is apathy. A poll recently suggested just under a third of voters won’t turn out in today’s first round vote.
While any politician will tell you a win is a win, a narrow one for Macron would not help the prospect of his party getting a heathy majority in France’s parliamentary poll in June and could jeopardise his reform agenda, which includes raising the age of retirement from 62 to 65 and reforming welfare.
Expect the gilets jaunes - the protesters who took to the streets for over a year to rail against the Macron Government’s performance - to be back on the streets this summer.
Despite the President’s lacklustre campaign and Le Pen’s late surge, the smart money remains on Macron winning a second term, which will make him only the third incumbent, following Mitterand and Chirac, to do so in the Fifth Republic.
But if Le Pen manages to strike an unexpected knockout blow and become Madame President at her third attempt, people will be eating their berets all over France. Well-seasoned, of course.
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