Tom Gordon: Milestone raises uncomfortable questions for Nicola Sturgeon

It is an undeniable achievement. While all politicians aspire to a lengthy spell in power, few achieve it.

Moreover, after three general, two Holyrood, one European and one council election, plus an EU referendum, Ms Sturgeon’s party remains the country’s dominant electoral force by some margin.

Next month’s second council election is unlikely to change that, with one poll suggesting the SNP might emerge even stronger.

But milestones can also be millstones. Ms Sturgeon’s landmark will also be a moment to look back at what she has done with those 2,744 days in Bute House. 

Not enough good stuff and too much bad stuff, the opposition will yell. Dividing the country and going around in circles on the constitution, they’ll add. 

Commentators will ponder ‘What is Sturgeonism?’ before concluding no such creed exists, and that it’s mostly been coping with the unexpected, racking up mistakes, and trying in vain to secure another referendum.

The Alba party will tut about missed opportunities. The dream shall never die, but Mr Salmond might yet lay a wreath to the mandates that were never cashed.

As a faith-based organisation selling an infallible product, the SNP doesn’t go in for introspection much. What, after all, is there to question?

But even in the ranks of Ms Sturgeon’s own party, activists will also surely wonder about the halting progress toward their prime objective and whether more could have been done. The fantasy timetable of a vote next year is not much of a consolation.

Leaders are complex, multifaceted people, their sprawling governments constantly in motion. Yet the public boils down their record in the most brutal fashion to one or two events or traits.

For Tony Blair it’s Iraq. Gordon Brown helped avert a global economic meltdown, but still gets the election he never called thrown in his face. David Cameron is the shallow toff who gave us austerity and Brexit, Theresa May the robot who squandered her majority, Boris Johnson the scandalous clown, Mr Salmond a creep who went off to Putin TV.

So try this parlour game at home. How do we sum up Ms Sturgeon’s time in office? Everyone will have their own ideas.

Revolutionary? Hardly. Despite the SNP having the most radical platform of any party at Holyrood bar the Greens, her time has been characterised by caution. 

After she announced Indyref2 in 2017 in the wake of the Brexit referendum, she was burned by the backlash in the snap general election soon afterwards. 

She has been decidedly hesitant ever since, insisting Indyref2 must come, but failing to venture beyond the Westminster-dependent process used for the 2014 vote.

Innovator? She may not be one for storming barricades, but she has brought the Greens into government and expended a lot of political capital on tackling climate change. The results are spotty, she remains conflicted over North Sea jobs, and the public aren’t yet braced for changes to come, but pushing renewable energy has been one of her hallmarks, although blunders over BiFab and the ScotWind auction are in the mix too.

Educationalist? Ms Sturgeon used to ask to be judged on schools and closing the attainment gap between rich and poor pupils. Thanks in part to the pandemic, the gap is now wider, but basic school performance was on the slide before it.

Scotland’s reputation as a world leader in education is now a history lesson.

Healer? Ms Sturgeon’s communication skills were undoubtedly a bonus when Covid struck, but the pandemic also exposed underlying weaknesses in the NHS and care system that had been accumulating for years. A&E waiting times and other key indicators remain dire, and there is a terrifying backlog of operations and treatments to clear.

Unifier? The country is as divided on the constitution as it was when she was sworn in as FM in November 2014. The Yes and No camps have solidified, even calcified. It’s an unhealthy state.

Builder? See CalMac ferries.

Failure? Enoch Powell famously said all political careers end in failure unless the person gets out at the right time. Have we passed Peak Sturgeon? Is failure next?

After all those electoral wins, and the many policies that worked, I certainly wouldn’t put the FM in this category. 

But, then again, the goal of every SNP leader is to secure independence, yet her failure to do so is writ large and her denials about it increasingly absurd.

It is five years since Ms Sturgeon first asked a Prime Minister for Holyrood to have the power to hold Indyref2.

Mrs May did not oblige. It’s two and a quarter years since she asked the same of Mr Johnson. He refused point blank.

Now we have war in Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, and a looming recession all making the UK Government even less likely to get diverted onto a referendum, yet still we are supposed to accept that Ms Sturgeon’s plan is serenely gliding along, unswayed by other events.

What started off as a faintly ridiculous pretence is now an insult to the nation’s intelligence.

Knowing the SNP’s love of process and pulling rabbits out of hats at conferences, I wouldn’t be surprised if the FM plans to announce a Referendum Bill around the next party gathering, which is expected soon.

But, really, what good will it do her?

Reporters call this stuff throwing red meat to the party base.

But it’s not red meat anymore, it’s dead horse. I doubt even the SNP faithful will stomach it.

Indyref2 is not imminent. A political generation has yet to pass since the last vote. The Tories want to define that as around 40 years, but half that makes more sense, as there was 17-year gap between the two constitutional referendums so far.

In 1997 the country voted for devolution and in 2014 it voted to keep it.

If so, that would put the next battle on the far side of 2030, by which time Ms Sturgeon is likely to have quit the field. 

How to sum up her time in office? I suspect she’ll be the intermission.