The SNP are on track for a record result in May’s council elections, according to a new poll.
If the forecast is accurate, Nicola Sturgeon’s party are on course to win the backing of 44 per cent of first preference votes, up from 32% in 2017.
This is almost double those who said they would back Scottish Labour, who are predicted to attract the second-largest share of first preference votes.
According to the Survation Poll for Ballot Box Scotland, 23% would back Anas Sarwar’s party, 18% the Conservatives, 6% the Lib Dems, 3% the Greens.
Alex Salmond’s hopes of establishing Alba as a force in local politics look doomed, with his party predicted to receive 1% of first preference votes – the same number as independent candidates.
Voters were also asked how they would use their second and third preferences. A total of 56% of voters said the SNP would feature in their top three picks, slightly ahead of 52% who would do the same for Labour.
The poll is good news for Nicola Sturgeon
The Greens at would be at least third on 37%, 31% the Lib Dems, 27% the Conservatives, and just 7% Independents and Alba.
However, 24% of voters said they wouldn’t mark a second preference at all, and 45% said they wouldn’t use their third.
Allan Faulds, of Ballot Box Scotland, said: “If these findings are accurate, the SNP are on track to deliver an astonishing record result in May, and Labour would again become the second largest party at local government level, giving both parties reason to be cheerful.
“On the other hand, the Conservatives, Lib Dems, Greens and Independents would seem to be headed for worse results, and Alba’s support is pretty pitiable. That said, some of these figures are rather eyebrow-raising when compared to other electoral evidence.”
Alex Salmond's Alba party are not tipped for a breakthrough
Mr Faulds added: “It has proven particularly difficult to gauge support for Independents, who’ve collectively received at least 10% of the vote at each of the last three elections, but only 1% in this poll.
“Similarly, across the most recent batch of 18 local by-elections they contested, the Greens won 7% of the vote and could thus be underestimated. Meanwhile polling ahead of 2017 was just as rosy for the SNP but support failed to materialise on the day.
“Collectively, this suggests there may be a particular challenge in capturing local voting intention via national poll – we’ll find out definitively either way in May.”
The poll was carried out between 24th and 28th March, with 1002 people living in Scotland aged 16 or over taking part.
Mr Faulds said: “Findings on later preference use nonetheless make for fascinating reading. Whilst the SNP and Conservatives have solid first preference support, they were picked relatively rarely for later preferences, whereas the other three Holyrood parties were popular transfer options.
“This perhaps suggests the parties most rigidly defined by the constitution are putting off voters in the middle.”
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